Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[cheezyWXguy]

I begining to smell POOF here with 92L if this trend continues....

another wishcast as we get into another possible tropical cyclone. It looks terrible right now, but conditions are very favorable, and it will likely give some shot at development the next couple of days. Lets leave the conclusive comments out for this point.

[richartm]

i would really like any promet's take's on this.

Why would any Pro-Met post on this board? If you wonder why I ask just scroll back a few pages and review what happened to Dr. Lyons, and he didn't even post.

Enjoy reading, but if it's an informed opinion you're looking for I'm afraid you'll have to go elsewhere.

[Sjones]

Our local met was talking about this during the news cast and stated that the Gulf will soon be open for business as far as tropical cyclones are concerned due to a high forming over the eastern US for the next couple of weeks. I guess Dean was a good practice run for us to be prepared for what is about to come.

[windstorm99]

I begining to smell POOF here with 92L if this trend continues....

another wishcast as we get into another possible tropical cyclone. It looks terrible right now, but conditions are very favorable, and it will likely give some shot at development the next couple of days. Lets leave the conclusive comments out for this point.

Excuse me thats not a wishcast just basically stateing my opinion which iam 100 percent entitled to.This area looks like a mess and overall the trend this afternoon does not look good as thunderstorm activity has greatly diminished through the afternoon hours.Upper level winds look favorable for some development but as of now nothing seems to be developing anytime in the near future.

Persistence is always key.Adrian

[vaffie]

It appears that the NAM has Dean sucking a low pressure out of Panama in the next 24-36 hours. There's strong convection going on over Panama and just south of there--where the NAM sees a low. Pressures are low--about 1008 mb but they're always low. The globals don't seem to form anything out of it. Something to watch but the NAM might be overdoing it. This low that the NAM creates may be the reason that 92L doesn't progress westward into the Gulf as fast as the other models have it. Anyway, time will tell.

Okay I was looking at the 18 four panel NAM charts to see if it showed 92L. On the hour 66 model there seems to be a low forming on 92L. What really caught my eye was the Yucatan and the low there that isn't Dean. Is that something of interest?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

92L still appears a distance from Florida at hour 84.

I am not very good at reading these things so someone correct me if I'm not seeing something.

If anyone answered this question I missed it and I'd like to know the answer as much as the original poster.

[southerngale]

Our local met was talking about this during the news cast and stated that the Gulf will soon be open for business as far as tropical cyclones are concerned due to a high forming over the eastern US for the next couple of weeks. I guess Dean was a good practice run for us to be prepared for what is about to come.

Which met? Just curious as I trust one or two more than the others.

[Sjones]

Our local met was talking about this during the news cast and stated that the Gulf will soon be open for business as far as tropical cyclones are concerned due to a high forming over the eastern US for the next couple of weeks. I guess Dean was a good practice run for us to be prepared for what is about to come.

Which met? Just curious as I trust one or two more than the others.

Greg, Channel 6, the mets there are the only ones I trust.

[Tertius]

i would really like any promet's take's on this.

Why would any Pro-Met post on this board? If you wonder why I ask just scroll back a few pages and review what happened to Dr. Lyons, and he didn't even post.

Enjoy reading, but if it's an informed opinion you're looking for I'm afraid you'll have to go elsewhere.

There are several Pro Mets that post here, and dozens more that are knowledgable enough to work in the field. Where on earth did you get the idea that informed opinion cannot be found here? That's as far from the truth as it is possible to get. And rude as well.

[chadtm80]

i would really like any promet's take's on this.

Why would any Pro-Met post on this board? If you wonder why I ask just scroll back a few pages and review what happened to Dr. Lyons, and he didn't even post.

Enjoy reading, but if it's an informed opinion you're looking for I'm afraid you'll have to go elsewhere.

Well you just insulted numerous pro mets that DO post here and some very knowledgeable amateurs and I value each of their opinions greatly. If you don't, then by all means why come here? Just to insult? tsk tsk...

[southerngale]

Our local met was talking about this during the news cast and stated that the Gulf will soon be open for business as far as tropical cyclones are concerned due to a high forming over the eastern US for the next couple of weeks. I guess Dean was a good practice run for us to be prepared for what is about to come.

Which met? Just curious as I trust one or two more than the others.

Greg, Channel 6, the mets there are the only ones I trust.

Ah, ok - he's who I trust most. He nailed Dean early on, and he never hypes.

He's lurking around here somewhere... ohhhh Greg, feel free to chime in with your thoughts on 92L.

[SkeetoBite]

i would really like any promet's take's on this.

Why would any Pro-Met post on this board? If you wonder why I ask just scroll back a few pages and review what happened to Dr. Lyons, and he didn't even post.

Enjoy reading, but if it's an informed opinion you're looking for I'm afraid you'll have to go elsewhere.

Well you just insulted numerous pro mets that DO post here and some very knowledgeable amateurs and I value each of their opinions greatly. If you don't, then by all means why come here? Just to insult? tsk tsk...

Yeah, what Chad said-

[Zardoz]

From Advisory 31A:

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

OK, I'll play.

There is certainly no organization with 92L at this point but there is plenty of energy from the southeast piling up into the area. I would not be shocked to see SLOW development over the next few days as it moves generally to the west or west-northwest. The ridge appears to be quite strong to the northwest and should generally move this system toward the Bahamas by the end of the week.

It is the proverbial waiting game at this point.

[Sjones]

From Advisory 31A:

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

Wrong Thread

[Zardoz]

From Advisory 31A:

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...85.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB.

Wrong Thread

D'oh!!!

Sorry...

[shannon]

what chad said and:

We'll certainly "enjoy reading" your post for the obviosly hilarity of it. Because we were not reading it as an "informed opinion." jeez!

[windstorm99]

NHC-8:05PM Discussion...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 29N MOVING W 15-20 KT. VERY
LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 50W-62W AND S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

[vacanechaser]

I begining to smell POOF here with 92L if this trend continues....

another wishcast as we get into another possible tropical cyclone. It looks terrible right now, but conditions are very favorable, and it will likely give some shot at development the next couple of days. Lets leave the conclusive comments out for this point.

Excuse me thats not a wishcast just basically stateing my opinion which iam 100 percent entitled to.This area looks like a mess and overall the trend this afternoon does not look good as thunderstorm activity has greatly diminished through the afternoon hours.Upper level winds look favorable for some development but as of now nothing seems to be developing anytime in the near future.

Persistence is always key.Adrian

well here we go again with the "poof" threads... didnt we just hear all this with dean in the begining.. i think we did.. tropical systems go through various stages of development, many have looked great one minute, and horrible the next before they take off... just give it time... several folks had to eat crow because of dean



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[fci]

MAIN EVENT:

Central Florida vs South Florida

This is the beginning of a looooong match...and there's nothing out there yet!!

At least it's not a Texas vs Florida shootout.

Better yet . . . Tide VS Gators

Actually Tide vs. Gators hasn't been much of a shootout lately; has it??????

GO GATORS.
NATIONAL CHAMPS IN BASKETBALL, FOOTBALL, BASKETBALL!!!!!

[flwxwatcher]

well here we go again with the "poof" threads... didnt we just hear all this with dean in the begining.. i think we did.. tropical systems go through various stages of development, many have looked great one minute, and horrible the next before they take off... just give it time... several folks had to eat crow because of dean



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team[/quote]

You beat me to it:):).. Lets see what we have in the 24 to 48 Hour range as conditions become more favorable and like Greg said energy is piling into this area.