Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[deltadog03]

Now, one could see that this will not rapidly develop until its to around 55-60W. Some said that they could see this taking off right away and I respectfully dissagree. We have seen this ALL year long as nothing has really blown up if you will out in the open atlantic. It will have to wait until it gets closer to the islands. This is also why I am very skeptical about a recure so soon.

[Derek Ortt]

model NCEP takes this into a very high shear zone... however, it may be having issues with the shear vector

[canegrl04]

Has anyone seen what the 12z EURO does to Karen? KABOOOOOM!

Holy Cow! Thats taking Karen alittle too close for comfort for the Eastcoast.Will be interesting to see if the coming model runs show a more West component to the cone

[deltadog03]

I just don't see this recurving so quickly. and DAAAANG on the EURO. LOL has a ticking timebomb.

[Derek Ortt]

that cannot be this system... that is a 10 DAY FORECAST. may be one of the waves behind Karen

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 39.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 39.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.3N 44.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.3N 47.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.7N 48.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 51.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 39.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH




111
WTNT32 KNHC 252032
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...KAREN CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
SO FAR...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1430
MILES...2305 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N...39.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

KAREN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BANDING FEATURES AND A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT ITS PRESENTATION ON INFRARED
IMAGERY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LACK MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND...IN FACT...THE OVERALL
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. DVORAK SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE HOLDING AT 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED
AND...IF KAREN DEVELOPS SOME MORE CENTRAL CONVECTION...IT COULD
STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT THE GFS DEPICTS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF 55 W IN 2-3 DAYS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER KAREN. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE THAT KAREN WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE...AND SHOWS WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3. THIS IS GENERALLY
BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE BUT IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. THE LGEM VERSION OF SHIPS...WHICH IS MORE
RESPONSIVE TO CHANGES IN SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHOWS
LESS INTENSIFICATION.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 285/13. A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY MID-
PERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CREATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE KAREN TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND U.K.
MET OFFICE SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 11.1N 39.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 12.3N 44.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 13.3N 47.1W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 14.7N 48.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 51.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 52.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 30/1800Z 22.5N 53.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[KWT]

It is Karen, you can see the 72hr position of this system here, its certainly Karen alright:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

Then heads NNW before slowing right down and bending back west upto day 10.

[skysummit]

that cannot be this system... that is a 10 DAY FORECAST. may be one of the waves behind Karen

Hmmm....not sure. In 72 hours, it shows a system pretty close to where Karen is NOW so maybe it dissipated Karen and this is another system behind it. Too bad there's nothing sooner than 72 hours.

I watched it on the Northern Hemisphere loop, and it really does look like Karen. It bends her northwest, then west again toward the end of the loop. It looks like it slows her down a LOT.

[Derek Ortt]

if that's Karen... it is going to be one turtle

[JonathanBelles]

that sure is Karen, look at this loop:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 512!!step/

I dont like it at all.

[Weatherboy1]

Looking at the latest global runs, it seems to me that the ridge is going to be split by a trough in a few days ... but then at the end of the time period (144 hours or so), that trough may lift back out, capping Karen's northerly turn and forcing her back to the WNW (or at least forcing her to stall). Who knows what will happen after that, but I wouldn't call fish on this one just yet.

[KWT]

Indeed the ECM has it really crawling around the 192-240hrs, indeed it even appears to go slightly WSW between 192-216hrs as a 1030mbs high breifly comes down from the north.
Ah well at least it'll knock that ACE that some people have been moaning about.

[Gustywind]

until the there is a part of the USA in the 5 day cone

That is 100% right.Until it surpasses 18.6n,we have to keep watching the track of Karen.

Yes cycloneye agree with you we're far away of the ultimate that but the more it goes west the more incertitudes for us the Carib islands....hope this job will stop today if no something to pay attention in the next 72h but we have time to monitor it to early ti speculate give it 48h.

[CrazyC83]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Considerable dry air to the north, but almost nothing ahead of it or beyond 50°W.

[CrazyC83]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

If Karen continues more due west, then shear is minimal. Considerable shear of up to 40 knots await any northwest turn though...

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 SEP 2007 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 11:05:04 N Lon : 39:50:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 997.6mb/ 49.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.4 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -44.0C Cloud Region Temp : -44.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in MD GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The islands should watch Karen, but for
right now I think it may the islands due to the
weakness and the NNW turn the NHC elucidates
in their discussion.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 21:45 UTC

[CrazyC83]

The Dvorak numbers are all over the place here; SSD has 2.0 (30 kt), CIMSS has 3.3 (50 kt)

[HurricaneRobert]

The Dvorak numbers are all over the place here; SSD has 2.0 (30 kt), CIMSS has 3.3 (50 kt)

It's a very big storm