BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[WindRunner]

Dang . . . no obvious dry air in there yet.

[Coredesat]

This is one of those rare times where I was hoping I was wrong.

[CrazyC83]

The storm sure expanded overnight - it is much larger now...

[Category 5]

This is one of those rare times where I was hoping I was wrong.

I think we all are.

This is a dire situation unfolding. This storm has consistantly maintained a very healthy looking structure. Sadly, it's heading for what may be the worst place in the world for a cyclone landfall.

Sadly, it appears that EWRC has expanded it's size, that won't help an already deadly surge situation.

The worst part is, we won't know exactly how strong it is until.... well I don't want to think about it honestly.

[MiamiensisWx]

You can observe an excellent UL diffluence and unrestricted outflow in the W quadrant. This is a byproduct courtesy of the trough and UL jet entrance. It looks like the eye may clear out, and we should see a monster (with stadium effect) prior to landfall per latest visible image. This may retain middle to upper-end Category 4 status at landfall, in my opinion. My original guess (~100-115 kts) may bust.

Regardless, it would still be destructive if it weakened to a lopsided Category 1 TC before landfall (because of the large wind radii and surge vulnerability in Bangladesh).

This is Katrina and Rita in the Bay of Bengal.

[KatDaddy]

This is a time for prayer for Bangledesh. This is extremely tragdic. Its as bad as it could get. The first VIS satellite speaks it all.

[cycloneye]

[MiamiensisWx]

Unfortunately, this could be the third Category 5-equivalent landfall in 2007.

1) Dean - Mexico (~145 kts/165 mph)
2) Felix - Nicaragua (~140 kts/160 mph)
3) Sidr?

[Ptarmigan]

This could be one of the worst disasters in decades. I am very scared for Bangladesh.

[WindRunner]

Hmm . . . microwave from 2347z doesn't show the eye quite as well . . . that could just be a fragment of the lower-resoultion product and/or that the eye might be contracting. Short-term, that'd mean more strengthening, but long-term possibly ERC-indicative . . .

Oh, here's the image:

[Category 5]

We can only pray for 2 things.

1. It doesn't get any stronger
2. It comes in at low tide

even then, still.

[RL3AO]

Well there really isn't much of a long term left for this storm.

[Derek Ortt]

low tide only means that high tide comes in when the strong TS winds are onshore. It gets trapped near the coast then the tidal surge comes in on top of the trapped high tide

Happened with katrina at Mississippi and Fran at North Carolina

[Category 5]

I sure hope it doesn't go through another EWRC, the last thing we need is for it to expand even more.

[jaxfladude]

Prayers.....




http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/world/sasia_cloudrain_07111507.jpg

[Derek Ortt]

It could start another EWRC before landfall, but that band is a little too connected to the eyewall to form into a secondary eyewall

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2007 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 17:56:29 N Lon : 89:16:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 894.2mb/143.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -24.9C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Stronger still...

[Ptarmigan]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2007 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 17:56:29 N Lon : 89:16:12 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 894.2mb/143.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -24.9C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Stronger still...

Based on the readings, it is a Category 5 storm.

[KatDaddy]

Bhola was 115 MPH at landfall!! Sidr is 150MPH!

[CrazyC83]

Based on the readings, it is a Category 5 storm.

Definitely a Cat 5 storm, winds probably 145 kt, maybe 150 kt. The only Atlantic storm I can find in recent years to have measured a T7.1 was Rita at its peak, and it was 150-155 kt at the time.