CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jasons2k]

...In other news - Van Halen finally, FINALLY officially announces a 2007 tour with front man DLR. And not a single Florida or Texas date

[MiamiensisWx]

Sorry, but most Americans couldn't point to the islands on a map. So don't hope for too much.

Don't worry. I'm an exception. I can easily identify most of the islands in the Atlantic basin (small and large) on a chart (without looking at the names). I don't even own a degree in oceanography! As an aside, I do care about the islands, and I'm sure most people pay attention to the events over there - good luck to HUC, Luis, caribepr, EyELeSs1, msbee, knotimpaired (off the top of my head) and our other island friends. I would keep a close eye on our (likely) future tropical cyclone. I pay attention to all regions, even from south Florida - I concur with Canelaw99's post.

[EyELeSs1]

msbee i remember you from a while back...we have a few rough days ahead...lets hope for the best.

[Canelaw99]

GUYS,DON'T FORGET THAT THIS SYSTEM HAD TO DEAL WITH THE ISLAND'S CHAIN,BEFORE GOING TO FLORIDA OR THE GOM....SO FOR US IN THE ANTILIES WE THANK YOU NOT TO FORGOT IN YOUR DISCUSSIONS THE GUYS THAT ARE NOW, PERHAPS,ONLY 4 DAYS TO A HURRICANE.....

Sorry, but most Americans couldn't point to the islands on a map. So don't hope for too much.

That wasn't nice.
I have said that they are in my prayers and I would blow it to the right of the Islands if I could. There are a few on here that are worried over the one in the Islands.

I am one who is worried both about my area (S FL) and the islands. My husband has a lot of family in Puerto Rico, and my mother-in-law is flying to PR on Wed. for the weekend, so I am definitely keeping my eye on the islands for that reason. I, for one, would prefer this storm to be a fish, but that may not come to fruition. It is human nature to be concerned about your own particular area because that is what you know. Being concerned about your own area does not automatically imply that you are not concerned about others. There are some on this board who may not care, but I think the majority on here are very concerned about anyone in the path of a storm, especially a bad one.

Our thoughts are definitely with our island folks, and I hope that you are all prepping as well as you can and that you all stay safe if this approaches you.

[Brent]

I also know all the islands in the Caribbean. I do occasionally get some in the Lesser Antilles confused but I know most of them. I am a huge geography freak, there are very few places worldwide that I don't know about.

[RL3AO]

New advisory any minute.

[HURAKAN]

Back to TD 4, the 2nd advisory is about to come out.

[Canelaw99]

...In other news - Van Halen finally, FINALLY officially announces a 2007 tour with front man DLR. And not a single Florida or Texas date

WHAT?! How can they leave out FL? That's a concert hubby & I would love to go see, but geez....nowhere in FL? That stinks!

*sorry - OT there*

Back to TD 4 and the roller coaster ride called "Storm Models".....

[HUC]

And i'am not worry at all,because i know we are a good comunity of weather enthousiasts,and i'am sure that any of us pay a great attention to what happened to the other members when a storm is threathing. The only thing i hope,is that the hurricane specialists on this board may give us good informations on the systems as they approc the islands.

[bvigal]

Hi msbee!

That's the problem with seeing each model that comes out... they change all the time, and really can't take any of them too seriously. I've decided it's too much stress, I'm going to check the NHC updates every 4 hours and that's it. There's no way, no matter how much data I have access to, that my odds on guessing the path are as good as NHC's. The "cone" was developed to work from years of experience with many storms. Tomorrow morning, if we are in the cone, I'm going to start getting ready and hope for the best.

[alienstorm]

In reviewing the visible pictures this afternoon, I will go out on a limb and project TS Dean at 5PM.The latest pictures show good development over the LLC as well as a band of convention being pulled in from the south (ITCZ) into the back side of the storm.

We will wait and see....

[RL3AO]

The NRL is back up to speed and they haven't changed the name. No upgrade.

[storms in NC]

And i'am not worry at all,because i know we are a good comunity of weather enthousiasts,and i'am sure that any of us pay a great attention to what happened to the other members when a storm is threathing. The only thing i hope,is that the hurricane specialists on this board may give us good informations on the systems as they approc the islands.

You can bet on that this is the best board out there on the Web.

[windstorm99]

I dont think we will see dean @ 5:00pm but rather later tonight or tommorow at 5am

[sevenleft]

Well, the thing with the track is that it is very uncertain...but it is very uncertain after it passes through or very near to the lesser Antilles. Some impact on the central to northern lesser Antilles appears quite likely, and those living there need to take the system more seriously than anyone else for the next few days.

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO intialized the system to weak. Still ,like Steve said it still holds on to this feature in the long run . Just took a peek at what J.B. has to say and he is still thinking Florida as a center point of a cone. Here is a small tidbit from his latest discussion. The model he is talking about in this tidbit is the GFS.

What we may now see is a cluster of runs aimed back at Florida, which as far as I can see in the current overall weather pattern is where this should go

[RL3AO]

Still a depression. 90 kts at 120 hrs still.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12Z EURO intialized the system to weak. Still ,like Steve said it still holds on to this feature in the long run . Just took a peek at what J.B. has to say and he is still thinking Florida as a center point of a cone. Here is a small tidbit from his latest discussion. The model he is talking about in this tidbit is the GFS.

What we may now see is a cluster of runs aimed back at Florida, which as far as I can see in the current overall weather pattern is where this should go

yes, he thinks FL first and then possibly either a run at the western GOM or at the SE U.S. He does not think this will recurve though. Should be an interesting 5-10 days ahead..

[Scorpion]

2100 UTC Mon Aug 13 2007


tropical depression center located near 11.9n 33.1w at 13/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 265 degrees at 17 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1005 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 11.9n 33.1w at 13/2100z
at 13/1800z center was located near 11.9n 32.3w

forecast valid 14/0600z 11.8n 35.5w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 14/1800z 11.8n 38.5w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 0se 0sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 15/0600z 11.8n 41.6w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 15/1800z 12.1n 44.7w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 16/1800z 13.0n 50.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 25se 25sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 50se 50sw 75nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 17/1800z 15.0n 56.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Outlook valid 18/1800z 17.0n 61.0w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.

[Extremeweatherguy]