Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[skysummit]

My God! Another low develops east of Belize? Come on....you gotta be kidding me.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

What's the deal with that?

This is the 3rd GFS run in a row to show that. The NAM has also been hinting at this for a couple runs.

[jhamps10]

My God! Another low develops east of Belize? Come on....you gotta be kidding me.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

What's the deal with that?

yeah and look at how good it has the low developed around the yucatan channel too.

[jhamps10]

Read my post closer- I am saying we DON'T know what the new Euro shows- it could be in line with the GFS now- or not. Who wants to stay up until 3:30 ET?

oh ok. you kinda made it look like you had some inside way to the EURO and it had showed it went off of the TX run.

[Stormcenter]

You know, this is all just absurd anyway. Why the hell are we even having such issues in the tropics THIS season? I thought conditions were going to be favorable for many hurricanes- not this "stay up all night 'til your eyes fall out of your head looking for any sign of life in the tropics" season that we are having (Dean and Felix excluded). I never would have thought back in July that this is what it would come to by this time in September?!?!?!?!??!

The post of the day. I totally agree with you.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone else find it odd that the storm seems to be busting through this strong ridge?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

That ridge looks pretty weak to the north. It's much stronger to the west.

It's actually looks just as strong to the north. 588+ in both places. Because of this, the GFS actually starts to turn the storm more westward between 42 and 54 hours before finally fading it out of existance just south of LA in 60 hours.

[cycloneye]

Mark,I think that the higher expectations from the experts before the start of the season has made not only you but for many,the same thinking,what is going on in 2007 season?.Even though La Niña looks like is getting control of the Pacific,look what is going on.I am starting to wonder if the main factor for how the season has been so far may be an issue that is a hot potatoe,but in another forum in storm2k is discussed greatly.What I remember is that by June,someone in the UK issued a report that stated less tropical activity but more stronger hurricanes.Certainly,Dean and Felix quailify to that.But lets see what happens during the rest of the season to see if we see some more activity or it has been capped.

[hurricanetrack]

Wish I did- 3:30 is a little late for me on a non-tropical, make my eyes bleed system. Know what I mean?

Still the GFS shows more mischief coming up from the south....another plot twist?

[Stormcenter]

Wish I did- 3:30 is a little late for me on a non-tropical, make my eyes bleed system. Know what I mean?

Still the GFS shows more mischief coming up from the south....another plot twist?

Phantom storm.

[jhamps10]

Wish I did- 3:30 is a little late for me on a non-tropical, make my eyes bleed system. Know what I mean?

Still the GFS shows more mischief coming up from the south....another plot twist?

no kidding, espically when I have to get up at 6:30 to get ready for class tomorrow.

[hurricanetrack]

Thanks Luis- I am just looking for some action to work in. You all know that and where I stand on field work, etc. The UKMET people said 10 total tropical storms I believe. Who knows- they might be right on the money.

Anyhow- we'll see how 93L or its evil twin or 2nd cousin to Harvey the Rabbit turns out. New GFS offers no new clues at all in my opinion.

Time for bed...I have deeper bags under my eyes than droppy the cartoon dog.

[skysummit]

Wish I did- 3:30 is a little late for me on a non-tropical, make my eyes bleed system. Know what I mean?

Still the GFS shows more mischief coming up from the south....another plot twist?

Phantom storm.

I LOVE IT....your posts are quite hilarious at times. LOL

[miamicanes177]

We've had a whole 3 hurricanes this year and are very close to having just 2 hurricanes if Humberto had not undergone historical deepening just as it hit. We already had 4 hurricanes by this time in 2006. And if this doesn't become a hurricane there is a good chance of entering October with only 3 hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS at 84 hours

Look at that low that comes out of the NW Caribbean where it ends up.

[skysummit]

What the hell is going on with the GFS.....for the 3rd run in a row, the GFS is showing a 1 - 2 punch. The NAM has also been hinting at this second system. I just don't get it.

I'm ready for winter.

[Extremeweatherguy]

everyone should check out AFM's comments on the other thread. He is giving some good info. regarding the NAM and GFS runs...

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=98086&start=1120

[skysummit]

He does make a good point EWG. However, like he says, it may never get tropical and may go north.

[PTPatrick]

even if the nam doesnt make it tropical it still does not go north...it comes to almost the panhandle and shoots west which toward nola. so it seems like it sees the high there too.

I still feel the GFS senario is most likely...looks like a rather lopsided system that sort of wonders into New Orleans on a ver WNW fashion after some initial NW mvmt. GFS is not calling for it bust the ridge as some want to believe. The solution is very plausible

[Wx_Warrior]

If GFS is right, I am thinking Cameron, Louisiana...

[Wx_Warrior]

00z GFDL is just east of NOLA...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation