Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Ed Mahmoud]

OT 7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warnings issued for Hawaii.

As far as Dean goes, HWRF and GFDL both weakne Dean to a minimal TS, and that is before it brushes Jamaica on both models.

[tolakram]

[Brent]

OT 7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warnings issued for Hawaii.

Geez... Flossie, there was a 5 point something on the Big Island Monday Night, and now this.

On topic... Erin is a MESS!!!! A huge mess!!!

[KatDaddy]

Erin has the potential to produce very serious flooding. She looks very unimpressive currently but dont let your guard down.

[Sanibel]

Bolting for the coast with elongated LLC. Should stay TS.

[RL3AO]

OT 7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warnings issued for Hawaii.

As far as Dean goes, HWRF and GFDL both weakne Dean to a minimal TS, and that is before it brushes Jamaica on both models.

No warning for Hawaii...it is an advisory. A watch or warning may be issued if new evidence is found.

[wxman57]

I think it's pretty clear that Erin is no longer really a TS. It's more of an elongated low pressure area with a mid-level circulation. Here's a 00Z plot. Just 10-20 kt winds around it, and not a good indication of a closed circulation. Actually, no real indication of a closed LLC. Hopefully we at least get enough rain to water the grass out of this mess:

[lrak]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... P&loop=yes

how bout its intensifying about 200miles ESE of Brownsville, and its starting right now.

just a thought.

[Aric Dunn]

I would say the Surface circulation is becoming better organized fast.....

I finally see Decent radar presentation .. although satellite is difficult at best to discern where the center is.. radar is much easier.. (and its not the Mid-level about to come into texas).

So here is what should happen--- > the LLC should improve quickly over the next few hours with convection already increasing and wrapping around the west side which was not there earlier. Also presently the wind field over the past couple hours is much more noticeable from the buoys in the area which was not there earlier as well. So watch ESE of Corpus Cristi, we should see increased radar presentation in terms of banding. So tonight will be the night i still see some strengthening tonight but not a lot.

I will do some screen shots of the radar throughout the night. I feel pretty confident with this happening
but it could just move ashore with no fan fare.


NE winds
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

WSW winds
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

so there is a closed low

[xironman]

Hey I waiting for that burst of convection down by the Yucatan to develop into something, Erin to stall, and for both of them to do a Fujiwara in the Gulf. Just to prove the CMC was right all along.

[Thunder44]

274
WHXX01 KWBC 160048
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0048 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN (AL052007) 20070816 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070816 0000 070816 1200 070817 0000 070817 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 95.2W 27.2N 97.1W 28.0N 98.9W 28.9N 100.5W
BAMD 26.3N 95.2W 27.1N 97.2W 27.9N 99.1W 28.5N 100.8W
BAMM 26.3N 95.2W 27.0N 97.2W 27.9N 99.3W 28.4N 101.0W
LBAR 26.3N 95.2W 27.5N 97.6W 28.9N 99.6W 30.2N 101.4W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 52KTS 58KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 32KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070818 0000 070819 0000 070820 0000 070821 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.7N 101.9W 31.3N 103.3W 32.0N 103.9W 32.2N 105.1W
BAMD 29.2N 102.3W 30.1N 103.5W 29.3N 105.4W 28.2N 109.7W
BAMM 29.1N 102.5W 29.8N 104.0W 29.4N 106.1W 28.5N 109.7W
LBAR 31.4N 102.7W 33.6N 104.0W 35.8N 102.8W 36.8N 99.4W
SHIP 64KTS 68KTS 60KTS 54KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.3N LONCUR = 95.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 25.2N LONM12 = 92.9W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 23.7N LONM24 = 90.7W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

0z models still have it as 35kt TS.

[lrak]

Hey I waiting for that burst of convection down by the Yucatan to develop into something, Erin to stall, and for both of them to do a Fujiwara in the Gulf. Just to prove the CMC was right all along.

I remember that run.

[lrak]

those all look WNW with the longitude numbers.

[Extremeweatherguy]

New explosion of convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[jasons2k]

I would say the Surface circulation is becoming better organized fast.....

I finally see Decent radar presentation .. although satellite is difficult at best to discern where the center is.. radar is much easier.. (and its not the Mid-level about to come into texas).

So here is what should happen--- > the LLC should improve quickly over the next few hours with convection already increasing and wrapping around the west side which was not there earlier. Also presently the wind field over the past couple hours is much more noticeable from the buoys in the area which was not there earlier as well. So watch ESE of Corpus Cristi, we should see increased radar presentation in terms of banding. So tonight will be the night i still see some strengthening tonight but not a lot.

I will do some screen shots of the radar throughout the night. I feel pretty confident with this happening
but it could just move ashore with no fan fare.


NE winds
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

WSW winds
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

so there is a closed low

Let me repost what AFM said on the previous page just to set the record straight:

Good burst of convection occurring under the MLC. The LLC is garbage. Recon is reporting N winds all the way down to 25N and 96.5W...which shows you how weak this low is. Given the LLC is to the NE...these winds should be WNW or westerly. So...we have winds blowing out of the LLC...divergent. Should have stayed with my first guess about this being a weak TS.

Also, anything being picked-up on radar that far offshore is a MLC, not LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

I would say the Surface circulation is becoming better organized fast.....

I finally see Decent radar presentation .. although satellite is difficult at best to discern where the center is.. radar is much easier.. (and its not the Mid-level about to come into texas).

So here is what should happen--- > the LLC should improve quickly over the next few hours with convection already increasing and wrapping around the west side which was not there earlier. Also presently the wind field over the past couple hours is much more noticeable from the buoys in the area which was not there earlier as well. So watch ESE of Corpus Cristi, we should see increased radar presentation in terms of banding. So tonight will be the night i still see some strengthening tonight but not a lot.

I will do some screen shots of the radar throughout the night. I feel pretty confident with this happening
but it could just move ashore with no fan fare.


NE winds
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42019

WSW winds
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

so there is a closed low

Let me repost what AFM said on the previous page just to set the record straight:

Good burst of convection occurring under the MLC. The LLC is garbage. Recon is reporting N winds all the way down to 25N and 96.5W...which shows you how weak this low is. Given the LLC is to the NE...these winds should be WNW or westerly. So...we have winds blowing out of the LLC...divergent. Should have stayed with my first guess about this being a weak TS.

Also, anything being picked-up on radar that far offshore is a MLC, not LLC.

read that already
we have WSW winds where they should be
so we will see what happens

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
01:02:00 27.02N 94.52W 959.4 mb 429 m 1007.1 mb From 124° (SE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) - -

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow 42 knot FL winds. Looks like this probably still is a TS.

[Aric Dunn]

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
01:02:00 27.02N 94.52W 959.4 mb 429 m 1007.1 mb From 124° (SE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) - -

well that is in that present burst of convection so still TS winds

[Aric Dunn]

Still plenty of TS winds.. and i imagine that will become a little more widespread tonight

010230 2703N 09431W 9596 00427 0071 +242 +238 121042 043 999 999 03
010300 2704N 09430W 9596 00427 0071 +246 +232 119040 040 999 999 03
010330 2705N 09429W 9588 00433 0070 +242 +240 115037 038 999 999 03
010400 2706N 09428W 9597 00425 0070 +242 +240 111040 041 999 999 03
010430 2707N 09427W 9594 00428 0070 +242 +240 109041 041 999 999 03
010500 2707N 09425W 9595 00428 0071 +242 +240 108042 042 999 999 03
010530 2708N 09424W 9595 00429 0072 +242 +242 109043 043 999 999 03
010600 2709N 09423W 9595 00430 0073 +242 +242 109041 042 999 999 03
010630 2709N 09422W 9593 00433 0074 +242 +242 107040 041 999 999 03
010700 2710N 09421W 9596 00430 0075 +242 +242 106040 042 999 999 03
010730 2711N 09419W 9594 00433 0075 +244 +242 108039 040 999 999 03
010800 2711N 09418W 9595 00432 0075 +244 +244 107039 040 999 999 03