Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Brent]

102 hours at 850 vorticity

Feet is wet now.

Looks like another system developing off Africa also... GFS has been pretty consistent with that.

[canetracker]

108 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_108l.gif

114 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_114l.gif

staying south in the BOC

[Extremeweatherguy]

look at the difference in the trough between the 6z and 12z run...

6z GFS at 120 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

12 GFS at 114 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[hurricanetrack]

I am just not seeing anything that suggests this will make it up to Texas or even northern Mexico. The runs have all been consistent, one after another. I would have to go with wxman57 on this- Mexico bound- probably south of 23 degrees.

Now, there could be some changes after that 5-day period but so far, two excellent global models show this staying well south of Texas- well south.

Of greater concern to the U.S. will be the developing TC off the SE coast. Look at how the GFS ramps that up!

[cycloneye]

114 hours at 850 vorticity

Still in BOC.

[cycloneye]

I am just not seeing anything that suggests this will make it up to Texas or even northern Mexico. The runs have all been consistent, one after another. I would have to go with wxman57 on this- Mexico bound- probably south of 23 degrees.

Now, there could be some changes after that 5-day period but so far, two excellent global models show this staying well south of Texas- well south.

Of greater concern to the U.S. will be the developing TC off the SE coast. Look at how the GFS ramps that up!

And that african one.

[canetracker]

120 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_120l.gif

126 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_126l.gif

[Portastorm]

look at the difference in the trough between the 6z and 12z run...

6z GFS at 120 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120l.gif

12 GFS at 114 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

Right ... and accordingly, with a sharper and deeper trough progged, the GFS has the vorticity center further north in the 12z run than in the 6z run. Southern Bay of Campeche at best.

[cycloneye]

126 hours at 850 vorticity

Just off Veracruz.

[Stratosphere747]

[jasons2k]

Even if a deeper trough materializes, I think Felix will be too far south to catch it unless he stalls, and that appears unlikely.

[HouTXmetro]

Can we conldue that the latest GFS is slightly more North at the end of the run?

[Portastorm]

Even if a deeper trough materializes, I think Felix will be too far south to catch it unless he stalls, and that appears unlikely.

Right-o ... and you'd have to have a complete collapse of the steering currents which no model is suggesting even as a remote possibility right now.

[canetracker]

132 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_132l.gif

138 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_138l.gif

Inland in Mexico

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison between the European and GFS valid 7pm next Thursday. I analyzed pressures every 1/2 millibar and 500mb heights every 10 meters to make the trofs/ridges stand out better. As you can see, there is some disagreement in the deepness of the trof over Texas next Thursday and the westward extent of the ridge north of Felix. It's possible that the trof over Texas might initially produce a bit of NW movement with Felix but then it lifts out and the ridge shoves Felix back westward. Quite a bit of uncertainty once Felix reaches Honduras/Belize. I've been leaning toward the Euro as it's been performing better with Felix than the GFS (or other models), but I'm not so sure Felix will move inland south of Tampico. It could move ashore between Tampico & Brownsville. One thing I'm certain of - I'm not sure just where it'll make final landfall yet.

ECMWF Valid 7pm THU:


GFS Valid 7pm THU

[Stratosphere747]

Can we conldue that the latest GFS is slightly more North at the end of the run?

No. If anything it is more to the S. Then again it never really closes off Felix.

[Brent]

Thanks for the graphics wxman57, very helpful.

and welcome to the club of those who don't know where final landfall will be.

[wxman57]

I'm running the same GFS analysis beyond Thursday evening and by Friday morning that trof in east Texas is lifting out to the north and the ridge is building back west ahead of Felix blocking much northward movement and forcing Felix westward into Mexico near or south of Tampico. Good news for Texas if that's the case.

[Portastorm]

Love that show and tell Wxman57, thanks so much!

The dynamics are easier to understand when you're looking at something like that.

I'll say final landfall is between Veracruz and La Pesca, Mexico!

[Blown Away]

Here's a comparison between the European and GFS valid 7pm next Thursday. I analyzed pressures every 1/2 millibar and 500mb heights every 10 meters to make the trofs/ridges stand out better. As you can see, there is some disagreement in the deepness of the trof over Texas next Thursday and the westward extent of the ridge north of Felix. It's possible that the trof over Texas might initially produce a bit of NW movement with Felix but then it lifts out and the ridge shoves Felix back westward. Quite a bit of uncertainty once Felix reaches Honduras/Belize. I've been leaning toward the Euro as it's been performing better with Felix than the GFS (or other models), but I'm not so sure Felix will move inland south of Tampico. It could move ashore between Tampico & Brownsville. One thing I'm certain of - I'm not sure just where it'll make final landfall yet.

ECMWF Valid 7pm THU:

GFS Valid 7pm THU

Where did that low off the FL coast come from?