Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[HouTXmetro]

So isn't it further east than the last run?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

A tad maybe.

[HouTXmetro]

A tad maybe.

What are your latest thoughts being that most models are showing a Nola regional strike?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Tough prediction since it hasn't developed yet. Most of the models show system moving into weak weakness in that area though. We'll see. We'll see what Euro has to offer later today.

[Wx_Warrior]

Will one of the few still up post the EURO when available? mucho gracias

[southerngale]

00z ECMWF

[Wx_Warrior]

Is this the new EURO???

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Wx_Warrior]

Southerngale...that a NOLA hit...Mid Central La Coast?

[southerngale]

Well, looking at the animation as well, it looks like it skims the Louisiana coast and goes inland at about the TX/LA border or SE TX? The link I used only shows the position in 24 hour increments, so apparently, it's not going inland there as I first thought, but skimming the coast. If I'm reading it right, that would be some nasty weather for quite a few areas.

[Wx_Warrior]

Wanted to make sure my eyes were not deceiving me....Very interesting now....shifting east. Can't wait to see the 2:30pm....EURO now shifting some east. SOme will be a little upset when they see this!

[Normandy]

Wanted to make sure my eyes were not deceiving me....Very interesting now....shifting east. Can't wait to see the 2:30pm....EURO now shifting some east. SOme will be a little upset when they see this!

To be fair, the Euro is moving this due N from S of Mobile to just due east of NOLA, then it takes it west into the general vicinity of TX/LA border.....but it is a shift east nonetheless.


One thing I've seemed to notive with all the models, they all agree that this feature will generally move W-WNW throughout the gulf

- NOGAPS takes this near NOLA and shoots it west along the LA coast into Texas (while inland though).
- EURO takes it N to near Mobile, then shoots it straight west into Eastern LA.

The area where this actually consolidates might be crucial...further south and stronger would raise the Texas threat, further north and weaker would raise the AL/FL threat.

[vaffie]

The area where this actually consolidates might be crucial...further south and stronger would raise the Texas threat, further north and weaker would raise the AL/FL threat.

Naturally, also, the more time it stalls over water the less likely it is going to head for the New Orleans weakness and instead go further west. The weakness is expected to fill in this weekend, generating a stronger high that would push it westward, so if it doesn't move too much further north quickly, then a western Louisiana/east Texas landfall seems most likely.

Snippet from San Angelo AFD for instance: FOR THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN OVER TEXAS WHILE
BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

[wxman57]

Well, looking at the animation as well, it looks like it skims the Louisiana coast and goes inland at about the TX/LA border or SE TX? The link I used only shows the position in 24 hour increments, so apparently, it's not going inland there as I first thought, but skimming the coast. If I'm reading it right, that would be some nasty weather for quite a few areas.

I plotted the euro using 1/2 millibar increments and it does take the center inland into SE TX, not Louisiana, but it comes close enough to the LA coast to brush the coast with TS force winds.

[caneman]

Well, looking at the animation as well, it looks like it skims the Louisiana coast and goes inland at about the TX/LA border or SE TX? The link I used only shows the position in 24 hour increments, so apparently, it's not going inland there as I first thought, but skimming the coast. If I'm reading it right, that would be some nasty weather for quite a few areas.

I plotted the euro using 1/2 millibar increments and it does take the center inland into SE TX, not Louisiana, but it comes close enough to the LA coast to brush the coast with TS force winds.

Still if memory serve correct this is a significant shift North and East for the Euro

[Ixolib]

You know, this is all just absurd anyway. Why the hell are we even having such issues in the tropics THIS season? I thought conditions were going to be favorable for many hurricanes- not this "stay up all night 'til your eyes fall out of your head looking for any sign of life in the tropics" season that we are having (Dean and Felix excluded). I never would have thought back in July that this is what it would come to by this time in September?!?!?!?!??!

Hey Mark - if this trend continues, you're gonna wake up one day and realize you're too old to get out and do any more field work. Ain't none of us getting any younger - and it's seasons like this one that probably tack on a few years!!!!!

[caneman]

anyone havethe new GFs run?

[skysummit]

anyone havethe new GFs run?

No change....still NOLA area.

[Ivanhater]

Well Euro finally giving in ...still looks like a north central gulf hit this morning...I'm off to PT and class, I will check back in around 3

[cycloneye]

00z UKMET

I didnt saw it posted so here it is.Shows a Mouth of MIssissippi landfall.

[hurricanetrack]

You know, this is all just absurd anyway. Why the hell are we even having such issues in the tropics THIS season? I thought conditions were going to be favorable for many hurricanes- not this "stay up all night 'til your eyes fall out of your head looking for any sign of life in the tropics" season that we are having (Dean and Felix excluded). I never would have thought back in July that this is what it would come to by this time in September?!?!?!?!??!

Hey Mark - if this trend continues, you're gonna wake up one day and realize you're too old to get out and do any more field work. Ain't none of us getting any younger - and it's seasons like this one that probably tack on a few years!!!!!

No kidding! Last year was tough- this is even worse since the potential has been so great, according to the experts....still, it is good that people have caught a much needed break. I can't help what forms and where it goes- I just like studying hurricanes when they hit land- and without hurricanes, there ain't no studying them. Oh well.