BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I do not see a weakening below a cat 3. If this does weaken to a 3 as I suspect it will, the wind field likely will expand, making this potentially even worse

ANY DEVIATION TO THE WEST WILL BRING 30 FEET OF TIDAL SURGE INTO INDIA, INCLUDING UP THE RIVERS NEAR CALCUTTA

thanks derek

[Falling Soil]

new jtwc update

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warn ... 607web.txt

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

JTWC now forecasting little change until landfall. They held it as a Cat 4 due to some data suggesting lower estimates. (I think it is 145 kt personally, with a 903mb pressure)

[Category 5]

This just keeps looking worse and worse by the minute. This storm keeps looking stronger and stronger on satelitte. I hate to say it, but the aftermath is going to be very, very ugly.

Whats the population near the projected landfall point?

[CrazyC83]

Whats the population near the projected landfall point?

About 145 million in Bangladesh, and something like 100 million more in that part of India.

[Derek Ortt]

see page 16 of the thread

the western parts of Bangladesh are not quite as populated as the Delta. Ther eis merely 100-500 people per square kilometer instead of 1000 or greater

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

CNN is very Dissapointing.
Why the "World" page? Why not the "front" page?

CNN on their front page all day had this story about "best looking man" but
they don't give a thing about a storm that could kill thousands? They should
just be Punished for that. The news stations did the same thing with dean/felix
they put stupid stories about "fashion" or "fads" when thousands are dying somewhere.

Somehow fashion is more urgent than the lives of millions. SICK.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2007 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 18:10:18 N Lon : 89:13:19 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 894.2mb/143.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -27.9C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

This post is totally unofficial and is in no way endorsed by storm2k.org. For official information please refer to your local weather service.

CORRECTED BULLETIN
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIDR
ISSUED 0325 UTC 15 NOV 2007
...CORRECTED TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS RECCOMENDED
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN INDIAN COAST FROM BALASORE TO KOLKATA.
A HURRICANE WARNING AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW RECOMMENDED
FROM KOLKATA...EASTWARDS TO NAUNGDAW KYUN...BURMA...INCLUDING
THE ENTIRE BANGLADESH COAST.

AT 0200 UTC THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SIDR WAS ESTIMATED
TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 89.1 EAST...ABOUT
320 MILES OR 515 KM SOUTH OF KOLKATA OR ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM
SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG...BANGLADESH.

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS SATELLITE
FIXES OF T7.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES...THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE SIDR IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 130 KNOTS...10-MINUTE...
240 KM/H OR 150 MPH...WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND
900 HPA. VERY LITTLE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT A STEADY PACE...AND
ON THIS TRACK WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A VERY POWERFUL CYCLONE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE COMPLETE. FLOODING AND STORM SURGE
ARE POTENTIAL KILLERS IN THIS SITUATION.

[Derecho]

Along the India/Bangladesh border is a giant Mangrove swamp called the Sundarbans - still 4 million people in it, but most of it is National Park.

However Sidr already looks to be turning east a bit and I suspect it ends up east of the JTWC landfall position.

[Derek Ortt]

what is the infastructure in the Sundarbans? Are the people that live there isolated and not able to get the warnings, or are they well informed about the situation

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

[wxmann_91]

India Population Density Map

Bangladesh Population Density Map

The good news: the current projected path takes Sidr over one of the less densely populated areas of Bangladesh.

The bad news: any deviation left or right of the track takes Sidr over very densely populated areas, some of the most densely populated in the world.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 NOV 2007 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 18:22:58 N Lon : 89:18:29 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 890.4mb/146.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

A little stronger still.

[WindRunner]

India Population Density Map

Bangladesh Population Density Map

The good news: the current projected path takes Sidr over the least densely populated area of Bangladesh.

The bad news: any deviation left or right of the track takes Sidr over very densely populated areas, some of the most densely populated in the world.

The eye may be headed over the lower-density areas, but the surge is going to be nailing the denser Bangladesh side regardless of any deviations.

[WindRunner]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 15-11-2007

TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY FOUR ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 15 NOVEMBER, 2007.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR” OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED FURTHER NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 15TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 17.50 N AND LONG 89.00 E, ABOUT 600 KM SOUTH OF KOLKATA(42809).

ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 hPa.

THE SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. EYE IS VISIBLE. CURRENT INTENSITY: T5.5 RPT T5.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 100-110 KTS AROUND THE STORM CENTRE.

SEA: PHENOMENAL.

FORECAST: THE STORM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 09 KT AND CROSS WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST EAST OF SAGAR ISLAND (42903) NEAR LONG. AND LONG 890 E BY 16TH NOVEMBER 2007 MORNING.

INTENSITY T6.5 RPT T6.5 WITH, WINDS OF 130 KTS GUSTING TO 150 KTS NEAR THE CENTRE OF THE STORM AT 0000 UTC OF 16TH NOVEMBER 2007.

[wxmann_91]

Agree with that WR; as long as it hits within the cone, thousands will be killed, so small deviations won't really matter here.

The round of intensification yesterday night was both a result of incredible diffluence (strong UL divergence in the right entrance region of a >100 kt upper jet), and SIDR moving over a deep warm pool.





Note that as one moves further north, the SST's decrease (not that that matters much anymore).

Also of interest, dry continental air has been impinging on SIDR for a couple of days now. Pretty impressive gradient between the dry air to the west and the moist air over SIDR. Normally this dry air would get entrained, but the environment is SO condusive for strong convection over the system, that the dry air is simply cannot penetrate the core.



(green/blue = dry, red/purple = moist)

[HURAKAN]