CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

What is the AEMN? Don't hear much about it...

Interestingly the GFDL and the UKMET also show a NW turn towards TX.

The "1 outlier" is a climo model. I REALLY wish they'd get rid of it...

AEMN = GFS Ensemble mean

according to this site: http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Home/modellist.txt

Sounds to me like it is probably even better than the operational GFS since it takes a mean of all the GFS ensembles.

[Pearl River]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

There is going to be an interesting race between Dean and the ULL over the Bahamas. The ULL doesn't appear to be moving, but is becoming elongated.

[storms in NC]

Just so you all know I didn't aban ship on Dean. I just been in a lot of pain today.

I still don't know where it will go yet. Will know more after it gets in the Carb. You all on the Islands Please Be safe. May God be with you all.

Deb

[TheShrimper]

What, you can't weather the POSSIBILITY of 39 MPH winds? I wouldn't be to concerned and I really don't think you are either.

[Aquawind]

737
WHXX01 KWBC 170022
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0022 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070817 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070817 0000 070817 1200 070818 0000 070818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 57.7W 14.6N 63.1W 15.0N 68.0W 15.3N 72.0W
BAMD 14.0N 57.7W 14.7N 61.4W 15.6N 65.0W 16.5N 68.5W
BAMM 14.0N 57.7W 14.7N 62.2W 15.4N 66.3W 16.0N 70.2W
LBAR 14.0N 57.7W 14.4N 62.0W 15.3N 66.5W 15.9N 70.8W
SHIP 85KTS 91KTS 99KTS 104KTS
DSHP 85KTS 91KTS 99KTS 104KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070819 0000 070820 0000 070821 0000 070822 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 74.9W 16.1N 79.8W 18.6N 84.5W 22.3N 90.3W
BAMD 17.4N 71.9W 18.9N 79.0W 20.5N 86.2W 22.0N 92.9W
BAMM 16.5N 73.6W 17.4N 80.4W 18.4N 86.2W 20.3N 91.0W
LBAR 16.8N 74.4W 17.9N 79.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 109KTS 117KTS 124KTS 117KTS
DSHP 109KTS 117KTS 124KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 57.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 53.3W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 49.2W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 5NM WNDM12 = 85KT
CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$
NNNN

Doh...just saw Canefreak's link..

[PTrackerLA]

I don't like that AEMN scenario. It would place SE Texas on the dirty side of this storm for 24+ hours and we would be battered by high winds and heavy rainfall for a long time. That is something we definitely DO NOT need right now.

BTW: The 00z BAM models have shifted north a bit...not a good sign.

Those models really make me nervous considering how far out we still are from landfall. If the models shift right tomorrow a US landfall looks very likely.

[Rainband]

GFDl shifted back to the west. Thats good news.

I think people in Mexico would disagree with you.This storm is not going to make good news anywhere it makes landfall.

I apologise I meant for the US. If any of you know me well then you know I wont be happy if this makes landfall anywhere.

[jabman98]

Houston-Galveston came as close as you can get before real damage starts to occur. We were on the razors edge.

We had damage from Rita. I live just a few miles north of downtown Houston. A few streets south of us an old tree fell and split the roofs of two houses. Pretty impressive for being that far from the storm. Several other trees or large branches were down as well, but nothing quite as dramatic.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This is not an official forecast just prediction.

After looking over the wv looops from TX to Bahamas to Dean, I don't llike what I am seeing. The ulll is pretty strong and not moving anywhere near the speed of Dean. It is supposed to be weak and move quick through the GOM and allow high pressure build in before Dean approaches. I just do not see that happening. Dean will catch the ull before reaching the western carib (if the ull does not speed up) and therefore reach the gulf as the weakness opens the way for him to move north. Just a feeling but I expect the models to start trending more northerly with time as the scenario plays out. We will just have to wait and see. I hope I am wrong. Feel free to chime in.

[flwxwatcher]

The BAM models are useless. It will be interesting to see what the Global Models show with the Gulf stream data added to the mix..

[msbee]

abajan
here is another report from Barbados form the stormcarib.com site

UPDATE FROM BARBADOS _ HURRICANE DEAN

* From: "Justin Browne" <justincbrowne at hotmail.com>
* Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 01:11:34 +0000

its just after 9 pm local time, the rain has stopped and its quite still outside. its such an weird feeling its REALLY still. Lets hope Dean isnt too mean. thankfully we are only getting the southern portion of the storm which is usually the weaker half. I still pray that things work out well. hope to give u another update soon if things change.

looks like maybe things are calming down for Barbados and you missed the worst of it.
I hope so
Stay safe!

[Cape Verde]

I don't like that AEMN scenario. It would place SE Texas on the dirty side of this storm for 24+ hours and we would be battered by high winds and heavy rainfall for a long time. That is something we definitely DO NOT need right now.

BTW: The 00z BAM models have shifted north a bit...not a good sign.

Those models really make me nervous considering how far out we still are from landfall. If the models shift right tomorrow a US landfall looks very likely.

Even if those models don't shift, most of them end their run in the Bay of Campeche. Those waters are favorable, and we don't know where the models carry the storm after that.

[Wx_Warrior]

Gut says from Mex to Miss could be a legit landfall strike. We know Mex/Tx because models have been constantly sending it that way by as east as La and even Ms..I'm afraid this is going to shift to the Central GOM once there...

[Ptarmigan]

Houston metro area was not completely spared from Rita. The evacuation claimed more lives than the actual storm itself. Rita is a Texas and Louisiana storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston-Galveston came as close as you can get before real damage starts to occur. We were on the razors edge.

We had damage from Rita. I live just a few miles north of downtown Houston. A few streets south of us an old tree fell and split the roofs of two houses. Pretty impressive for being that far from the storm. Several other trees or large branches were down as well, but nothing quite as dramatic.

yeah, there was some damage here too. It was minor compared to what could have happened, but it was still pretty significant; similar to what you would expect after being hit by a very severe thunderstorm.

video of some of the damage I observed in my area after Rita = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0jBEV_bU9M

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

There is going to be an interesting race between Dean and the ULL over the Bahamas. The ULL doesn't appear to be moving, but is becoming elongated.

I'm really starting to wonder about that... this could be very interesting.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Pearl River, I agree the ull is not moving near the speed as Dean and unless it speeds up the west track will not pan out IMO. The weakness associated with the ull will be in the gulf by late weekend and start to pull Dean more north. I think the models will start to turn more northerly in the next few runs. I hope I am wrong but to me that is the way it looks.

[Kerry04]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

There is going to be an interesting race between Dean and the ULL over the Bahamas. The ULL doesn't appear to be moving, but is becoming elongated.

I'm really starting to wonder about that... this could be very interesting.

how will this affect Dean

[Pearl River]

This is not an official forecast just prediction.

After looking over the wv looops from TX to Bahamas to Dean, I don't llike what I am seeing. The ulll is pretty strong and not moving anywhere near the speed of Dean. It is supposed to be weak and move quick through the GOM and allow high pressure build in before Dean approaches. I just do not see that happening. Dean will catch the ull before reaching the western carib (if the ull does not speed up) and therefore reach the gulf as the weakness opens the way for him to move north. Just a feeling but I expect the models to start trending more northerly with time as the scenario plays out. We will just have to wait and see. I hope I am wrong. Feel free to chime in.

Cyclone Mike, I've been looking at that too. As a matter of fact I stated in another thread the ULL appears to becoming elongated, instead of moving west. Maybe some of the pro-mets can chime in and tell us if that makes a difference.

[Extremeweatherguy]

sounds similar to how it was in Orlando before Charley. it was eerily still before the worst part of the storm arrived and then within an hour the winds picked up to hurricane force with gusts over 100mph.