Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
01:02:30 27.05N 94.52W 959.6 mb 427 m 1007.1 mb From 121° (ESE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) - -
01:05:30 27.13N 94.40W 959.5 mb 429 m 1007.2 mb From 109° (ESE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) - -

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Up about 1500 feet, 43 kt (49.4 mph) thirty second sustained wind.
Coordinate location: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... lon=-94.40
Observation was 151 miles (243 km) to the S (170°) from Galveston, TX, USA.

[Duddy]

Oh snap!

[Stratosphere747]

Latest obs seem to be a bit more impressive. Might be reading them wrong?

[Aric Dunn]

Latest obs seem to be a bit more impressive. Might be reading them wrong?

nope your probably reading them just fine.

the area of TS force winds is a little more evident

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Latest obs seem to be a bit more impressive. Might be reading them wrong?

I'm decoding them here:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97076&p=1597441

[Stratosphere747]

Latest obs seem to be a bit more impressive. Might be reading them wrong?

I'm decoding them here:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97076&p=1597441

I've been following your obs. Kudos to taking the time to post them. Even though Erin is not the best system in the world, following the recon obs has started to become habitual.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like with a vortex data message indicating a 1004mb min pressure, as well as flight level winds up to 43 knots..this is definitely still a TS. The question now is will this still be able to pull off some strengthening prior to landfall (which will be in about 12-16 hours)? I guess we will find out..

[Duddy]

Based on sat, it looks like the heavy convection will be moving on shore here in Matagorda within a few hours. Perhaps before midnight.

Also, the area were they just recorded 50mph sustained winds is heading right towards me!

[Thunder44]

Looks like with a vortex data message indicating a 1004mb min pressure, as well as flight level winds up to 43 knots..this is definitely still a TS. The question now is will this still be able to pull off some strengthening prior to landfall (which will be in about 12-16 hours)? I guess we will find out..

Recon fixed a center well south of the thunderstorms blowing up tonight, near the MLC. I don't think it will strengthen much before landfall, unless it LLC co-locates with the MLC.

[Cape Verde]

Recon fixed a center well south of the thunderstorms blowing up tonight, near the MLC. I don't think it will strengthen much before landfall, unless it LLC co-locates with the MLC.

I've been here awhile, but I still don't understand all the dynamics at work. What is keeping the MLC from centering over the LLC?

I haven't heard a word about shear on this thread.

[Bigbird11]

It's good that this storm isn't serious, but the problem that might be discounted is that Corpus Christi can't handle even a moderate amount of rainfall before it cripples the "city". The city will shut down for a week after this thing finishes dumping the rain.

That is the truth...Corpus Christi and surrounding area's are now having to boil all water used for food, drinking etc. before use due to fecal e-coli contamination in the water system due to flooding the past few weeks. Now we have to deal with this rain episode yuck!!!

That's terrible! I haven't paid much attention to the weather in that area since I moved, but I know that land simply can't handle more than four inches before bad things happen. It's only going to get worse there for the next few weeks it seems. Good luck!

If Erin hits and it's not even noticeable, Dean could be a Cat 5, and no one will move.

No way. Not that area. Normally that's sound thought, but that area cannot handle normal rainfall much less a real storm. If the citizens see their metro area becoming unlivable due to a tropical depression or whatever it is at landfall, if they see a real hurricane coming, they'll be long gone - at least the ones that can afford to leave.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon fixed a center well south of the thunderstorms blowing up tonight, near the MLC. I don't think it will strengthen much before landfall, unless it LLC co-locates with the MLC.

I've been here awhile, but I still don't understand all the dynamics at work. What is keeping the MLC from centering over the LLC?

I haven't heard a word about shear on this thread.

yeah .. shear wise i cant see any mid level shear which would cause such decoupling .

there is something else going on with that

[Normandy]

It would blame it on the initial broadness of the low....it just couldnt tighten up.

[Aric Dunn]

It would blame it on the initial broadness of the low....it just couldnt tighten up.

that makes sense

[shelby]

It's good that this storm isn't serious, but the problem that might be discounted is that Corpus Christi can't handle even a moderate amount of rainfall before it cripples the "city". The city will shut down for a week after this thing finishes dumping the rain.

That is the truth...Corpus Christi and surrounding area's are now having to boil all water used for food, drinking etc. before use due to fecal e-coli contamination in the water system due to flooding the past few weeks. Now we have to deal with this rain episode yuck!!!

That's terrible! I haven't paid much attention to the weather in that area since I moved, but I know that land simply can't handle more than four inches before bad things happen. It's only going to get worse there for the next few weeks it seems. Good luck!

If Erin hits and it's not even noticeable, Dean could be a Cat 5, and no one will move.

No way. Not that area. Normally that's sound thought, but that area cannot handle normal rainfall much less a real storm. If the citizens see their metro area becoming unlivable due to a tropical depression or whatever it is at landfall, if they see a real hurricane coming, they'll be long gone - at least the ones that can afford to leave.

IMO I think that the comment was not made towards to central coast - it was made to HOU area because of the problems with the Rita evac - just my opinion

[Steve]

Yeah, but when you're under the gun from tropical storm conditions, it really doesn't matter if the energy is at the surface, the mid levels or upper levels. I've seen some awfully strong upper systems come across dixie and wreak havoc. To me, it's more of a technicality. Storms are intensifying near to landfall which was my call, and there should be some gusts along the coast in the 40's and maybe 50's along with some torrential rainfall.

All good and a nice dry run for the TX coast.

Steve

[Johnny]

I have pretty much wrote this one off...

BUT

as of right now, very deep convection is exploding!!!!

[btangy]

It would blame it on the initial broadness of the low....it just couldnt tighten up.

This is very typical of the "gestation phase" where one has multiple vortices enveloped in a very broad circulation. Often, these vortices are coupled to bursts of convection which then die out and refire due to small scale convergence. Eventually these vortices merge and form a dominant center and earnest strengthening commences. For a storm to strengthen fast from the get go is really the exception to the rule. Usually one has to have some very intense convection ("hot towers") to do this.

[drezee]

I am starting to have the feelinjg that people are going to fall asleep to a Tropical Storm and wake up to a minimal hurricane coming ashore...

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999