Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Karen is already south of the nhc track, and I don't see it to go northwest soon.

Since the southern route has far less shear and dry air, that would strengthen Karen more.

[Gustywind]

Karen is already south of the nhc track, and I don't see it to go northwest soon.

Should it verifies Ouragan way to early for that , but today it was i hope just some kind wobbles or relocation...at early stages i will say...but on this trend tommorow...i will vote your fairly for yor opinion give it more 24h! but that's a little suscipious each hour since 11am

[Gustywind]

Karen is already south of the nhc track, and I don't see it to go northwest soon.

Since the southern route has far less shear and dry air, that would strengthen Karen more.

Agree with you and what can you expected in term of path any idea?

[CrazyC83]

Latest steering currents:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

Close call for the islands it appears...and that path has little shear so we could see a major storm still...

[Gustywind]

Tkanks quite agree with you if this trend continues, i wait for a confirmation assuming that but....something to watch !

[cycloneye]

Crazy,what do you think of the quickscat position below 11n? If you haved not seen it is at page 23.

[OURAGAN]

The track will be close to the north of leewards islands.
I don't want any hurricane like Hugo for the island.

[CrazyC83]

Crazy,what do you think of the quickscat position below 11n? If you haved not seen it is at page 23.

Confirms the WSW wobble. Seems to be 35-40 kt with the highest barbs there, although I think it is higher.

[CrazyC83]

Karen is already south of the nhc track, and I don't see it to go northwest soon.

Since the southern route has far less shear and dry air, that would strengthen Karen more.

Agree with you and what can you expected in term of path any idea?

It's hard to say since there is that ridge sitting in the west-central Atlantic near Bermuda...

[Gustywind]

The track will be close to the north of leewards islands.
I don't want any hurricane like Hugo for the island.

Hummm don't say that Ouragan you will wake up Karen lool, i can't imagine that right now at this rate Karen will it be a serious player for Guadeloupe... St Marteen and Cycloneye at Puerto Rico ( Herbert Box ) to early to speculate plenty of time to admit but forced to see that today the forecasts continue to be very south than what was expected!!!

[Gustywind]

What is the lastest sat pic ?

[cycloneye]

What is the lastest sat pic ?

[Category 5]

Karen is already south of the nhc track, and I don't see it to go northwest soon.

Remember, don't just focus on the center line.

[Gustywind]

What is the lastest sat pic ?

Tkanks Luis continues to be fairly well organized !

[Gustywind]

Karen is already south of the nhc track, and I don't see it to go northwest soon.

Remember, don't just focus on the center line.

And what does it mean in other terms please?.... the global mouvement ?west? or what? if you can help me

[Gustywind]

Numerous banding in NW and SW quadrants trying to form?.

[Lowpressure]

Core appears to be getting better established.

[JonathanBelles]

Karen is already south of the nhc track, and I don't see it to go northwest soon.

Remember, don't just focus on the center line.

And what does it mean in other terms please?.... the global mouvement ?west? or what? if you can help me

The track may be shifted west.

[Gustywind]

Core appears to be getting better established.

Absolutely agree with you nice overall structure with a huge size always

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 41.0W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 41.0W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 40.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.6N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.6N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.3N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 51.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 41.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




336
WTNT32 KNHC 260244
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2007

...KAREN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED....

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1355
MILES...2185 KM...EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N...41.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

AFTER LOOKING RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE CENTER OF KAREN AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
THE SAME WITH KAREN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
ALLOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND UKMET
MODELS...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL IN THE ATLANTIC SO FAR THIS
YEAR...ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS.

THE LARGE AND BROAD CIRCULATION OF KAREN HAS LIKELY INHIBITED
STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE FACT THAT
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED...IT APPEARS THAT KAREN SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO EXACTLY
WHAT ROLE A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL HAVE ON THE CYCLONE. THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS TROUGH A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND
KEEPS A MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER KAREN FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4-5...KAREN IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WOULD
INCREASE. DESPITE THIS SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN KAREN TO A HURRICANE. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 48-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST BLENDS THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND SHOWS A
LITTLE LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 11.1N 41.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 11.6N 43.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 12.6N 45.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 13.8N 47.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 15.3N 49.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 17.7N 51.4W 55 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 53.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 22.5N 54.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN