INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This reminds me of tropical storm grace near the same area. Also for the fact that the Gfdl takes it into central southeastern texas. But hey pattern could be different then the one grace had. So its worth watching.

[Aric Dunn]

Sanibel, I think what you are looking at is the last night's LLC that is becoming ill-defined right now.

Honestly, I don't understand the need to move this center somewhere else.

Again - The center is clearly exposed, as some have said, at those coordinates. It isn't eroding etc. It is simply sheared by the ULL. The mid-level center you speak of is simply the dispalced mid-level of this surface feature. I'd be very surprised if this shifted.

Keep watching.

Consolidation is already happening.

.
we still need deep convection before anything can happen


and why are we at 27 pages are we not supposed to stop at 25

[Air Force Met]

Wow air force met called this center being "dragged" not relocating under the deeper convection earlier, and that is exactly what it appears to be doing.

we are lucky to be privvy to this kind of insight

AFM how worried/concerned are you about this things potential to intensify

The upper levels look really good in about 12 hours. I thought last night it would run out of room before it could reach cat 1...but the center is doing what Claudette did...and that gives it more time and more convection. A cat 1 is a good possibility now....especially since there is an outflow channel with the TUTT.

What the pulling effect of the elongated center and convection will do as far as landfall is move it further up the coast. Again...this really reminds me of Claudette. Back in 2003, she was forecasted to move into KBRO but the center kept getting dragged back north and east towards the convection and thus the track had to be adjusted northward. There was a ridge north of Claudette too. She wanted to go west but couldn't until she got a consolidated center.

I think this system will consolidate its center sooner, rather than later (like Claudette) and thus the dragging to the N and E will be less extreme...but instead of a BRO-CRP landfall...it may be a CRP-Port O'Conner landfall....closer to CRP ...maybe around Rockport?...just a guess at this point until we actually have a system.

[Tireman4]

You know AFM, the media will be ALL over this. We will be swamped in the Houston area of doom, dispair and agony. I wonder which will cry the loudest. I second the thanks for your insight, as well as to all the professional meteorologists on this site. You make this site the one to go to during any season.

[mgpetre]

[quote="RL3AO
Convection has blown up over the LLC.[/quote]

I've been saving the Atlantic Wide images of these two storms and Dean looks very pathetic on Satellite compared to Sunday night into Monday morning. I admit though that I wasn't following it as closely, because 90L worries me much more and although it isn't even officially a depression yet, it looks to be doing more than Dean currently. I just don't want to get surprised...

[Texashawk]

Actually, IMO the Houston media is being unusually quiet about it all. Are they not aware or are they tired of crying WOLF all the time???

Seriously, though. I do wonder why so quiet...

You know AFM, the media will be ALL over this. We will be swamped in the Houston area of doom, dispair and agony. I wonder which will cry the loudest.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow air force met called this center being "dragged" not relocating under the deeper convection earlier, and that is exactly what it appears to be doing.

we are lucky to be privvy to this kind of insight

AFM how worried/concerned are you about this things potential to intensify

The upper levels look really good in about 12 hours. I thought last night it would run out of room before it could reach cat 1...but the center is doing what Claudette did...and that gives it more time and more convection. A cat 1 is a good possibility now....especially since there is an outflow channel with the TUTT.

What the pulling effect of the elongated center and convection will do as far as landfall is move it further up the coast. Again...this really reminds me of Claudette. Back in 2003, she was forecasted to move into KBRO but the center kept getting dragged back north and east towards the convection and thus the track had to be adjusted northward. There was a ridge north of Claudette too. She wanted to go west but couldn't until she got a consolidated center.

I think this system will consolidate its center sooner, rather than later (like Claudette) and thus the dragging to the N and E will be less extreme...but instead of a BRO-CRP landfall...it may be a CRP-Port O'Conner landfall....closer to CRP ...maybe around Rockport?...just a guess at this point until we actually have a system.

agreed... You mention the outflow channel I brought that up last night and was wondering the extent of it.. i noticed it could possibly open up two one too the SE from the ULL heading west through the carrib and then the close proximity to the Gulf tutt. rita had a very similar dual outflow channel setup ?? your thoughts

[lrak]

nice blow up right over the center now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Corpus to Port O' Conner sounds like a good prediction right now AFM. Thanks for the update!

[Portastorm]

Actually, IMO the Houston media is being unusually quiet about it all. Are they not aware or are they tired of crying WOLF all the time???

Seriously, though. I do wonder why so quiet...

You know AFM, the media will be ALL over this. We will be swamped in the Houston area of doom, dispair and agony. I wonder which will cry the loudest.

I was just going to say ... other than S2K members, I know of nobody here in the capital of Texas who even knows what's going on in the Gulf. This thing is going to catch a lot of people by surprise if it spins up rapidly!

[Extremeweatherguy]

nice blow up right over the center now.

yes there is! I am willing to bet this is already a TS...


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[Tireman4]

Actually, IMO the Houston media is being unusually quiet about it all. Are they not aware or are they tired of crying WOLF all the time???

Seriously, though. I do wonder why so quiet...

You know AFM, the media will be ALL over this. We will be swamped in the Houston area of doom, dispair and agony. I wonder which will cry the loudest.

KHOU Channel 11's David Paul mentioned it this morning and it is up on their website.

[RL3AO]

I was just going to say ... other than S2K members, I know of nobody here in the capital of Texas who even knows what's going on in the Gulf. This thing is going to catch a lot of people by surprise if it spins up rapidly!

Lets just hope this thing doesn't have explosive deepening or we will have serious problems.

[cheezyWXguy]

[quote="RL3AO
Convection has blown up over the LLC.

I've been saving the Atlantic Wide images of these two storms and Dean looks very pathetic on Satellite compared to Sunday night into Monday morning. I admit though that I wasn't following it as closely, because 90L worries me much more and although it isn't even officially a depression yet, it looks to be doing more than Dean currently. I just don't want to get surprised...[/quote]
Dean looks a lot better today, actually. It has a CDO now, outflow on the west side has improved, and its not elongated or exposed anymore. However, I wonder which will become a cat 1 first. This is going to be an interesting couple of days

[HouTXmetro]

Actually, IMO the Houston media is being unusually quiet about it all. Are they not aware or are they tired of crying WOLF all the time???

Seriously, though. I do wonder why so quiet...

You know AFM, the media will be ALL over this. We will be swamped in the Houston area of doom, dispair and agony. I wonder which will cry the loudest.

KHOU Channel 11's David Paul mentioned it this morning and it is up on their website.

As far as Weather, KHOU is always on top of things.

[mgpetre]

nice blow up right over the center now.

yes there is! I am willing to bet this is already a TS...


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I'm willing to at least bet that it's current "health" is better than that of Dean. I'm guessing the news will be all over this tonight...

[WmE]

ok now 28 pages I wonder how long we can go before someone notices we have past 25 pages

There is no limitation in this subforum.

[Tireman4]

Agreed. No Opal. LOL

[Aric Dunn]

ok now 28 pages I wonder how long we can go before someone notices we have past 25 pages

There is no limitation in this subforum.

really cool

[Brent]

ok now 28 pages I wonder how long we can go before someone notices we have past 25 pages

There's no limit on this board, but a new thread will start if/when it becomes a TD.