Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Praxus]

Good thing it doesn't have all that much time to strengthen

[Cape Verde]

If Erin hits and it's not even noticeable, Dean could be a Cat 5, and no one will move.

IMO I think that the comment was not made towards to central coast - it was made to HOU area because of the problems with the Rita evac - just my opinion

That is true. What Houston experienced in its attempted (and in hindsight unnecesarry) evacuation was a nightmare. People literally died from the heat in their cars in the huge traffic jam. Thousands of vehicles ran out of gas and were pushed off the road.

Anyone who experienced that, especially in light of the fact that the hurricane missed the city when we were told two days before landfall that a Cat 5 storm was going to nail us, is going to think long and hard before evacuating. Yes, some will. When I said no one will move, it was for effect.

But I don't think you'll ever see a mass evacuation until the local population has been proven wrong by their decision to stay. Houston doesn't think Katrina has any relevance.

[shelby]

If Erin hits and it's not even noticeable, Dean could be a Cat 5, and no one will move.

IMO I think that the comment was not made towards to central coast - it was made to HOU area because of the problems with the Rita evac - just my opinion

That is true. What Houston experienced in its attempted (and in hindsight unnecesarry) evacuation was a nightmare. People literally died from the heat in their cars in the huge traffic jam. Thousands of vehicles ran out of gas and were pushed off the road.

Anyone who experienced that, especially in light of the fact that the hurricane missed the city when we were told two days before landfall that a Cat 5 storm was going to nail us, is going to think long and hard before evacuating. Yes, some will. When I said no one will move, it was for effect.

But I don't think you'll ever see a mass evacuation until the local population has been proven wrong by their decision to stay. Houston doesn't think Katrina has any relevance.

I agree but I like to think that HOU leadership learned as they did in Allison. I just hope (wishfully) that no one in HOU ever has to make those decisions again.

[wxman57]

It's really hard to close off a center on the latest plot. Could be a broad weak LLC way south of the convection. I don't see how the NHC can say some strengthening is possible unless they put the center beneath the MLC and convection. Convection will be inland by sunrise. Not much chance of any significant wind inland. Strongest sustained winds on the coast will probably be 20-25 kts with gusts to 40-45 kts possible in squalls moving inland around Matagorda Bay to Freeport area. Not much at all around wherever that nothing of a center moves inland.



With that, I've issued my final comment on Erin, and I'll say:

It's dead, Jim! (or, It's just more rain moving ashore, Jim!)


Time to focus on Dean.

Night, all.

[drezee]

I am starting to have the feelinjg that people are going to fall asleep to a Tropical Storm and wake up to a minimal hurricane coming ashore...

Expect a WTNT65 tonight on Erin.

[Duddy]

I am starting to have the feelinjg that people are going to fall asleep to a Tropical Storm and wake up to a minimal hurricane coming ashore...

Expect a WTNT65 tonight on Erin.

Whats WTNT65

[jasons2k]

I am starting to have the feelinjg that people are going to fall asleep to a Tropical Storm and wake up to a minimal hurricane coming ashore...

Expect a WTNT65 tonight on Erin.

I never say never, but 99.99999999999999999999999999% chance that won't happen. I'm about to crash myself...

[tailgater]

I doubt that they will downgrade because it will probably start to refire new convection right after dark, this is the diurnal minimum

Good guess Tailgater, thanks guys.

[jabman98]

Hopefully the next time a big storm is bearing down on Houston, people will listen to the evacuation recommendations, rather than decide they have to flee, even if they live well north and west of the city. Unncessary evacuations contributed to the mess on the roads. Not excusing the clusterf*** that ensued by poor planning, etc. - but just saying that people leaving when they weren't in a specific evacuation area didn't really help things.

I think Erin is a good trial run for the area in the sense that it reminds everyone hurricane season is here and hopefully gets people thinking about their plans. Of course Erin being a non-event (so far) is a bit of a letdown. Hopefully it won't be a case of people thinking things are overhyped and ignoring warnings the next time. I think the local Houston coverage has been relatively measured and accurate with Erin, so people know there's a storm but aren't all freaking out because of hypecasting.

So far we've had very little going on here. Not even any gusts of wind to speak of or a sprinkle. I'm near downtown.

[Cape Verde]

Why do weathermen and sailors insist on using kts to describe speed, when most of us landlubbers never deal with that?

Is there a rational reason?

[Stratosphere747]

I doubt that they will downgrade because it will probably start to refire new convection right after dark, this is the diurnal minimum

Good guess Tailgater, thanks guys.

How long are you in town Tailgater.......

And staying on topic - I think I'd even up the odds Jschlitz placed...

[Duddy]

I doubt that they will downgrade because it will probably start to refire new convection right after dark, this is the diurnal minimum

Good guess Tailgater, thanks guys.

Nice job!!! You win one (1) Internet!

[Duddy]

Why do weathermen and sailors insist on using kts to describe speed, when most of us landlubbers never deal with that?

Is there a rational reason?

Because the metric system makes sense.

[shelby]

So far we've had very little going on here. Not even any gusts of wind to speak of or a sprinkle. I'm near downtown.

I am in NW HOU off the white oak - nothing here yet either - nice storm early this morning though - lots of lighting

[wxman57]

What's a "mph"?

[Cape Verde]

What's a "mph"?

ROFL

[Duddy]

What's a "mph"?

[jabman98]

I am in NW HOU off the white oak - nothing here yet either - nice storm early this morning though - lots of lighting

We had that too - about 4:00 a.m. or so. Lots of rain, thunder and lightning. Figured it was an early band and thought we'd get more today, but nothing since then.

What's a "mph"?

[SkeetoBite]

What's a "mph"?

Some crazy guy said "let's take these knots and multiply them by say... hmmm... let's say about 1.151 and see what we get." And he saw that it was good and forevermore it was known as "mhp"... I mean "MPH"!

[btangy]

Given this new persistent blob of deep convection, it could turn out that the northern end of this elongated trough (which Windsat obs show nicely) might close off and become the dominant LLC. Though this is pretty much academic as it doesn't really matter where the center is. Definitely a new MCV forming at mid-levels per Galveston and Corpus Christi long range reflectivities from what I can tell. Whether this makes it down the surface is a different matter. Needs to move a little closer to radar so the doppler velocities show up better.