CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

I just heard on TWC that there has been severe damage to St. Lucia

[Frank P]

I might be wrong, but i think Dean has begun to slow his forward speed a bit... just my visual observation from the last 6 hours of frames. View this and let me know if you agree. Mind you, not talking a huge slowdown, but seems to be in the 15-20 mph range instead of the 20-25 mph range:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=crb&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

I looked at the loop pretty hard and I couldn't discern any significant slowdown, could be these old tired eyes, hard to tell by just looking at the entire system and not being able to have that clear eye where you can actually measure the location and be able to plot the speed...... IMO it looks like its moving as projected... doesn't appears to have a slight northerly component somewhere between just north of due west and WNW.. hard to really tell without being able to pinpoint the eye in the IR... centers on these well developed storms do wobble a lot... so you got to kind of average them out over time... one frame it might look due west then the next frame it might look more nw west.... some tend to get overexcited over them though... thus we start getting the wobble wars... I can say this... nothing is in stone on the track... beyond the yucatan it could get real interesting... especially for the TX and even perhaps LA... but experience has taught me that you ALWAYS get some kind of surprise with these storms... and Dean will be no different... all kinds of things can eventually affect the final track of Dean...

best advice I can give anyone...

expect the worse because you can and will sometimes get it....

[marcane_1973]

One BIG key that this storm has gotten better organized is Recon has reported a closed eyewall and the pressure has fallen to 970mb. Indications that this going to really ramp up in the next 24-48 hours. The West side looks a lot better this morning. Seems the dry air is not effecting Dean as bad now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Short loop:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
But you can clearly see the eye on Martinique radar. Not a great radar for tropical waves, but is okay for systems with an eye.

[Sjones]

I disagree STRONGLY that these areas are "ruled out"...the model TREND is what is important...the trend this morning is more and more northerly...and now NHC is hinting that the upper low could be a real fly in the ointment. NHC's 5 day forecast does not show any US landfall yet...the only thing NHC appears fairly certain about is that the storm is Gomex bound.[/quote]


Just a little info....when I typed "IMO" that means, In my OPINION. It was never stated factually.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Gfdl moved north, but other tropical models moved south. The ukmet and gfs mean model update will tell if gfdl is onto something.

one more shift right by the GFDL will throw down major problems..

[rockyman]

I disagree STRONGLY that these areas are "ruled out"...the model TREND is what is important...the trend this morning is more and more northerly...and now NHC is hinting that the upper low could be a real fly in the ointment. NHC's 5 day forecast does not show any US landfall yet...the only thing NHC appears fairly certain about is that the storm is Gomex bound.

Just a little info....when I typed "IMO" that means, In my OPINION. It was never stated factually.

I realize that...and I disagree strongly with your opinion

[ronjon]

Is coastal MS safe now? Does it appear this morning that Dean is going to be more of a MX/TX or a TX/LA threat?

IMHO It is to early to tell. ALL interest along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida need to monitor Dean.

IMO, Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi are all ruled out just going off of the GFS and GFDL Models. This looks to be a MX,TX/LA Storm.

A point to remember - nearly all recent major hurricanes forecasted in the 3-5 day time frame (i.e. Ivan, Katrina, Rita) were much further east than their 3-5 day projected paths. Add in climatology to reenforce that trend. In addition, this summer thus far we had many troughs weaken the ridges so persistence of a strong ridge would be a relatively new wrinkle in the atmospheric pattern. I'm not saying this will not be a southern tracker but we have to remember there is some uncertainty this far out as noted in the 5 am NHC discussion.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hope all the Islanders faird well...Looks like they got blsted in MArtinique..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171221
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 19 20070817
121400 1511N 06051W 6960 03164 9990 +056 +999 133048 055 053 035 01
121430 1509N 06052W 6965 03159 9990 +058 +999 133055 062 057 026 05
121500 1508N 06053W 6963 03160 0084 +060 +060 138056 057 056 023 01
121530 1507N 06054W 6973 03151 0092 +060 +060 135053 055 052 016 01
121600 1506N 06056W 6968 03157 0107 +051 +051 129049 052 042 026 01
121630 1504N 06057W 6973 03149 0104 +054 +054 130055 057 043 015 00
121700 1503N 06058W 6958 03167 0085 +067 +067 134059 059 042 055 03
121730 1502N 06059W 6967 03152 0073 +073 +073 137060 060 999 999 03
121800 1501N 06101W 6964 03153 0079 +067 +067 136061 061 999 999 03
121830 1500N 06102W 6965 03148 0086 +059 +059 137062 064 045 023 03
121900 1458N 06103W 6966 03147 0080 +063 +063 138064 066 999 999 03
121930 1457N 06104W 6961 03148 0073 +065 +065 135064 065 045 053 03
122000 1456N 06106W 6961 03144 0061 +070 +070 134067 067 044 047 03
122030 1455N 06107W 6965 03138 0052 +076 +076 132068 069 048 025 03
122100 1454N 06108W 6966 03135 0045 +078 +078 129069 070 059 005 03
122130 1452N 06109W 6963 03027 9932 +073 +073 126070 070 999 999 03
122200 1451N 06111W 6966 02838 9617 +059 +059 127072 075 999 999 03
122230 1450N 06112W 6957 02523 9396 +059 +059 131071 072 999 999 03
122300 1449N 06113W 6953 02914 9833 +057 +057 137073 075 999 999 03
122330 1448N 06114W 6959 03123 9990 +060 +999 145073 074 076 006 05

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:21Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 19
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
12:14:00 15.18N 60.85W 696.0 mb 3,164 m - From 133° (SE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 53 kts 35 mm/hr
12:14:30 15.15N 60.87W 696.5 mb 3,159 m - From 133° (SE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 57 kts* 26 mm/hr*
12:15:00 15.13N 60.88W 696.3 mb 3,160 m 1008.4 mb From 138° (SE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 56 kts 23 mm/hr
12:15:30 15.12N 60.90W 697.3 mb 3,151 m 1009.2 mb From 135° (SE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 52 kts 16 mm/hr
12:16:00 15.10N 60.93W 696.8 mb 3,157 m 1010.7 mb From 129° (SE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 42 kts 26 mm/hr
12:16:30 15.07N 60.95W 697.3 mb 3,149 m 1010.4 mb From 130° (SE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 43 kts 15 mm/hr
12:17:00 15.05N 60.97W 695.8 mb 3,167 m 1008.5 mb From 134° (SE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 42 kts* 55 mm/hr*
12:17:30 15.03N 60.98W 696.7 mb 3,152 m 1007.3 mb From 137° (SE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) - -
12:18:00 15.02N 61.02W 696.4 mb 3,153 m 1007.9 mb From 136° (SE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) - -
12:18:30 15.00N 61.03W 696.5 mb 3,148 m 1008.6 mb From 137° (SE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 45 kts* 23 mm/hr*
12:19:00 14.97N 61.05W 696.6 mb 3,147 m 1008.0 mb From 138° (SE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) - -
12:19:30 14.95N 61.07W 696.1 mb 3,148 m 1007.3 mb From 135° (SE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 45 kts* 53 mm/hr*
12:20:00 14.93N 61.10W 696.1 mb 3,144 m 1006.1 mb From 134° (SE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 44 kts* 47 mm/hr*
12:20:30 14.92N 61.12W 696.5 mb 3,138 m 1005.2 mb From 132° (SE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 48 kts* 25 mm/hr*
12:21:00 14.90N 61.13W 696.6 mb 3,135 m 1004.5 mb From 129° (SE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 59 kts* 5 mm/hr*
12:21:30 14.87N 61.15W 696.3 mb 3,027 m 993.2 mb From 126° (SE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) - -
12:22:00 14.85N 61.18W 696.6 mb 2,838 m 961.7 mb From 127° (SE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) - -
12:22:30 14.83N 61.20W 695.7 mb 2,523 m 939.6 mb From 131° (SE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) - -
12:23:00 14.82N 61.22W 695.3 mb 2,914 m 983.3 mb From 137° (SE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) - -
12:23:30 14.80N 61.23W 695.9 mb 3,123 m - From 145° (SE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 76 kts* 6 mm/hr*
At 12:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 37 miles (59 km) to the ESE (103°) from Roseau, Dominica.
At 12:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 17 miles (28 km) to the NW (323°) from Fort-de-France, Martinique (FRA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .22c-61.23

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

---

SFMR suspect surface wind of 76 kts.
Approaching center.
High wind in bold above reported over the island of Martinique itself up around 10,000 feet.

[caneman]

There has indeed been a rightward trend with the NHC. COuld someone please post the average track errors for 3 days out and then 4 days and lastly 5 days out.

[Sjones]

A point to remember - nearly all recent major hurricanes forecasted in the 3-5 day time frame (i.e. Ivan, Katrina, Rita) were much further east than their 3-5 day projected paths. Add in climatology to reenforce that trend. In addition, this summer thus far we had many troughs weaken the ridges so persistence of a strong ridge would be a relatively new wrinkle in the atmospheric pattern. I'm not saying this will not be a southern tracker but we have to remember there is some uncertainty this far out as noted in the 5 am NHC discussion.

We will just have to wait and see, if it took a sharp turn east and headed for MS, AL or FL, I would be extremely suprised due to the upper ridge over the east coast.

[HURAKAN]

New:

[DESTRUCTION5]

A point to remember - nearly all recent major hurricanes forecasted in the 3-5 day time frame (i.e. Ivan, Katrina, Rita) were much further east than their 3-5 day projected paths. Add in climatology to reenforce that trend. In addition, this summer thus far we had many troughs weaken the ridges so persistence of a strong ridge would be a relatively new wrinkle in the atmospheric pattern. I'm not saying this will not be a southern tracker but we have to remember there is some uncertainty this far out as noted in the 5 am NHC discussion.

We will just have to wait and see, if it took a sharp turn east and headed for MS, AL or FL, I would be extremely suprised due to the upper ridge over the east coast.

you have to remember any slow downs will let the pattern change and it can change fast..

[Frank P]

Gfdl moved north, but other tropical models moved south. The ukmet and gfs mean model update will tell if gfdl is onto something.

one more shift right by the GFDL will throw down major problems..

Exactly.. you don't know what the future trends will be... I would not rule out any area in the GOM... you can certainly start making your plans based on the information available... but I'm pretty sure the people in Brownsville are just as concerned as the folks in Houston ... and I'm sure all of LA is looking at this as well.. as is MS, AL and FL...

a couple more shifts to the right and all bets are off.... from my perspective I hope that does not come to fruition... not to wish anyone else any harm either... SO LA, MS and AL can't take another hit by a small hurricane, much less a major... I still remember the sinking feeling I had in my gut every time a Katrina model was run and it updated the direct hit on my area... case in point... you start getting all the models to cluster on your area three days out and you are going to be one sick and disgusted puppy...

[Sabanic]

A point to remember - nearly all recent major hurricanes forecasted in the 3-5 day time frame (i.e. Ivan, Katrina, Rita) were much further east than their 3-5 day projected paths. Add in climatology to reenforce that trend. In addition, this summer thus far we had many troughs weaken the ridges so persistence of a strong ridge would be a relatively new wrinkle in the atmospheric pattern. I'm not saying this will not be a southern tracker but we have to remember there is some uncertainty this far out as noted in the 5 am NHC discussion.

We will just have to wait and see, if it took a sharp turn east and headed for MS, AL or FL, I would be extremely suprised due to the upper ridge over the east coast.

If models did, and I only say did begin to show an even more northward (eastward) trend it couldn't be considered an abrubt turn. Dean is just now entering the Carribean and still can, and will probably surprise us several more trimes.

[marcane_1973]

Hope all the Islanders faird well...Looks like they got blsted in MArtinique..

Yeah they did!!! Anybody hear any reports coming out of there? Hope everyone is ok. Looks like now maybe Jamaica could be next to get smacked on the Deans list.

[msbee]

Derek
a storm correspondent form Antigua posted on stormcarib.com that he heard on the radio that the capital of St. Lucia is flooded, that the roof of a children's ward in the hospital went, and that electricity poles are down all over.
I am afraid that is just the first of the damage reports that will be coming in.

[msbee]

check the thread on the Caribbean islands. no reports from Martinique but initial reports of considerable damage in St. Lucia.

[cycloneye]

LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1145 UTC 14.4N 61.7W T5.0/5.0 DEAN -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Almost a cat 3.