Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Buck]

Questionable...

But maybe they are waiting for the winds to ramp up just a little.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 252018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/20:15:20Z
B. 21 deg 44 min N
094 deg 38 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 110 deg 004 nm
F. 218 deg 027 kt
G. 131 deg 014 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 23 C/ 262 m
J. 24 C/ 273 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 01JJA INVEST OB 15
MAX FL WIND 27 KT SE QUAD 20:10:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 252051
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 34 20070925
204400 2148N 09536W 9819 00256 0109 +238 +238 334015 017 999 999 03
204430 2146N 09536W 9820 00256 0110 +236 +236 335016 017 999 999 03
204500 2143N 09536W 9820 00256 0110 +236 +236 334020 022 999 999 03
204530 2141N 09536W 9820 00257 0110 +244 +244 331021 022 999 999 03
204600 2139N 09536W 9820 00257 0110 +246 +244 324023 023 999 999 03
204630 2137N 09536W 9821 00256 0111 +242 +242 323024 025 999 999 03
204700 2135N 09536W 9822 00256 0111 +250 +236 320023 024 999 999 03
204730 2132N 09536W 9819 00260 0112 +248 +242 318023 024 999 999 03
204800 2130N 09536W 9822 00256 0111 +248 +242 317024 024 999 999 03
204830 2128N 09536W 9817 00261 0111 +248 +240 319025 026 999 999 03
204900 2126N 09536W 9822 00256 0112 +246 +240 320025 026 999 999 03
204930 2124N 09536W 9820 00259 0113 +244 +242 319026 027 999 999 03
205000 2121N 09536W 9821 00259 0114 +248 +240 314025 026 999 999 03
205030 2119N 09536W 9820 00259 0113 +244 +242 307026 028 999 999 03
205100 2117N 09536W 9820 00259 0113 +244 +240 305027 029 999 999 03
205130 2115N 09536W 9819 00261 0114 +244 +244 304028 029 999 999 03
205200 2113N 09536W 9822 00257 0113 +246 +242 306028 029 999 999 03
205230 2110N 09536W 9820 00259 0113 +246 +242 306029 029 999 999 03
205300 2108N 09536W 9822 00258 0114 +246 +238 307028 029 999 999 03
205330 2106N 09536W 9820 00261 0115 +246 +236 307029 029 999 999 03
$$

FL winds up to 29 kt.

[CrazyC83]

Questionable...

But maybe they are waiting for the winds to ramp up just a little.

Maybe. If they find winds closer to TS force (i.e. FL winds in the 30s), maybe a special advisory at about 5 pm CDT.

[Buck]

URNT15 KNHC 252051
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 34 20070925
204400 2148N 09536W 9819 00256 0109 +238 +238 334015 017 999 999 03
204430 2146N 09536W 9820 00256 0110 +236 +236 335016 017 999 999 03
204500 2143N 09536W 9820 00256 0110 +236 +236 334020 022 999 999 03
204530 2141N 09536W 9820 00257 0110 +244 +244 331021 022 999 999 03
204600 2139N 09536W 9820 00257 0110 +246 +244 324023 023 999 999 03
204630 2137N 09536W 9821 00256 0111 +242 +242 323024 025 999 999 03
204700 2135N 09536W 9822 00256 0111 +250 +236 320023 024 999 999 03
204730 2132N 09536W 9819 00260 0112 +248 +242 318023 024 999 999 03
204800 2130N 09536W 9822 00256 0111 +248 +242 317024 024 999 999 03
204830 2128N 09536W 9817 00261 0111 +248 +240 319025 026 999 999 03
204900 2126N 09536W 9822 00256 0112 +246 +240 320025 026 999 999 03
204930 2124N 09536W 9820 00259 0113 +244 +242 319026 027 999 999 03
205000 2121N 09536W 9821 00259 0114 +248 +240 314025 026 999 999 03
205030 2119N 09536W 9820 00259 0113 +244 +242 307026 028 999 999 03
205100 2117N 09536W 9820 00259 0113 +244 +240 305027 029 999 999 03
205130 2115N 09536W 9819 00261 0114 +244 +244 304028 029 999 999 03
205200 2113N 09536W 9822 00257 0113 +246 +242 306028 029 999 999 03
205230 2110N 09536W 9820 00259 0113 +246 +242 306029 029 999 999 03
205300 2108N 09536W 9822 00258 0114 +246 +238 307028 029 999 999 03
205330 2106N 09536W 9820 00261 0115 +246 +236 307029 029 999 999 03
$$

NHC, it's not too late for a 5pm advisory!! It's only 4:59. This thing is a TD.

[CrazyC83]

If this was declared TD13 right now, would any watches or warnings be needed at the moment? (If that is the case, they should have initiated advisories, otherwise waiting could work)

[Derek Ortt]

I have ZERO understanding as to why this is not being upgraded. QS indicated this morning that surface winds were at least 30KT and now FL winds are about 30KT

[RL3AO]

I have ZERO understanding as to why this is not being upgraded. QS indicated this morning that surface winds were at least 30KT and now FL winds are about 30KT

What if it was about 250 miles further north?

[Buck]

I smell a special advisory well before 11pm. And it is a very strong odor I am smelling.

[Brent]

I smell a special advisory well before 11pm. And it is a very strong odor I am smelling.

If TD 10 was a TD, then this is.

[Derek Ortt]

right now I am not sure... but this is a tropical depression, and it should be TD 12,not 13 as it was a TD yesterday before Karen became one

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 252101
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 35 20070925
205400 2104N 09536W 9821 00260 0115 +246 +238 307028 029 999 999 03
205430 2102N 09536W 9820 00262 0116 +246 +238 306027 028 999 999 03
205500 2059N 09536W 9820 00262 0116 +244 +238 306027 028 999 999 03
205530 2057N 09536W 9821 00261 0116 +246 +230 303027 028 999 999 03
205600 2055N 09536W 9820 00263 0117 +244 +240 306025 026 999 999 03
205630 2053N 09536W 9818 00264 0116 +240 +240 307025 025 999 999 03
205700 2051N 09535W 9819 00262 0115 +242 +236 301026 026 999 999 03
205730 2052N 09533W 9819 00262 0115 +240 +238 296022 024 999 999 03
205800 2054N 09531W 9819 00263 0116 +244 +232 290020 021 999 999 03
205830 2055N 09530W 9821 00260 0115 +244 +236 286021 023 999 999 03
205900 2057N 09528W 9820 00261 0115 +244 +236 282022 023 999 999 03
205930 2058N 09527W 9821 00260 0115 +244 +240 279022 022 999 999 03
210000 2100N 09525W 9820 00260 0114 +246 +236 284022 023 999 999 03
210030 2101N 09523W 9821 00259 0114 +246 +236 285022 023 999 999 03
210100 2103N 09522W 9820 00259 0113 +246 +242 281023 024 999 999 03
210130 2104N 09520W 9820 00258 0111 +246 +244 281024 024 999 999 03
210200 2106N 09519W 9821 00257 0111 +246 +244 280025 025 999 999 03
210230 2108N 09517W 9821 00257 0111 +246 +244 279023 024 999 999 03
210300 2109N 09515W 9821 00257 0111 +246 +244 279023 024 999 999 03
210330 2111N 09514W 9819 00258 0110 +248 +242 277021 021 999 999 03
$$

[dtrain44]

Derek (or anyone else), what's the most compelling argument against upgrading here? I'm not altogether sure that I see one, but if the NHC doesn't upgrade, what could be a reason not to do so? Just wondering what the other side of the case would look like here.....I have to think this is a TD right now.

[Buck]

I would think they're only reasoning is that any FL winds over 27 knots didn't come in until after 4:55. That is the only possible thing I can think of.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 252111
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 36 20070925
210400 2113N 09513W 9820 00258 0111 +250 +240 281020 022 999 999 03
210430 2115N 09512W 9822 00256 0111 +252 +236 292019 020 999 999 03
210500 2117N 09511W 9820 00258 0111 +250 +240 290017 018 999 999 03
210530 2118N 09510W 9818 00259 0110 +250 +244 284015 015 999 999 03
210600 2120N 09509W 9820 00257 0110 +250 +244 288015 016 999 999 03
210630 2122N 09508W 9818 00258 0108 +250 +246 285015 016 999 999 03
210700 2124N 09507W 9820 00257 0110 +250 +244 289015 015 999 999 03
210730 2126N 09506W 9820 00256 0109 +252 +232 286015 016 999 999 03
210800 2128N 09506W 9821 00255 0109 +252 +236 284014 014 999 999 03
210830 2130N 09505W 9820 00256 0109 +250 +240 281013 013 999 999 03
210900 2132N 09504W 9821 00255 0109 +250 +242 282011 012 999 999 03
210930 2134N 09503W 9821 00254 0110 +230 +230 279010 011 999 999 03
211000 2136N 09503W 9820 00255 0108 +246 +246 268009 010 999 999 03
211030 2138N 09503W 9820 00255 0107 +250 +246 275008 008 999 999 03
211100 2140N 09503W 9821 00253 0106 +250 +248 291006 008 999 999 03
211130 2142N 09503W 9821 00251 0104 +248 +248 301004 005 999 999 03
211200 2144N 09503W 9820 00251 0103 +250 +244 298001 002 999 999 03
211230 2146N 09503W 9824 00247 0102 +248 +240 049003 004 999 999 03
211300 2147N 09502W 9820 00249 0101 +248 +248 059003 004 999 999 03
211330 2148N 09500W 9819 00251 0102 +250 +250 047003 003 999 999 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 252121
AF305 01JJA INVEST HDOB 37 20070925
211400 2148N 09457W 9826 00237 0093 +254 +252 114005 007 999 999 03
211430 2148N 09456W 9818 00242 0090 +252 +252 130007 008 999 999 03
211500 2148N 09454W 9813 00247 0091 +250 +250 145008 009 999 999 03
211530 2148N 09452W 9814 00246 0091 +250 +248 164009 009 999 999 03
211600 2148N 09450W 9815 00244 0090 +254 +242 185008 008 999 999 03
211630 2148N 09448W 9812 00247 0090 +254 +242 231008 008 999 999 03
211700 2147N 09447W 9817 00243 0091 +244 +244 230009 009 999 999 03
211730 2147N 09445W 9813 00247 0091 +250 +240 232011 012 999 999 03
211800 2147N 09443W 9817 00244 0091 +252 +240 228011 012 999 999 03
211830 2146N 09441W 9812 00248 0091 +250 +238 230013 013 999 999 03
211900 2146N 09438W 9815 00245 0091 +256 +232 239012 012 999 999 03
211930 2146N 09437W 9813 00247 0091 +258 +208 234015 018 999 999 03
212000 2146N 09435W 9812 00248 0091 +260 +194 217019 020 999 999 03
212030 2148N 09434W 9817 00245 0093 +258 +208 217021 022 999 999 03
212100 2149N 09432W 9814 00248 0094 +252 +222 214019 021 999 999 03
212130 2150N 09431W 9813 00249 0094 +250 +236 209018 020 999 999 03
212200 2152N 09430W 9814 00249 0095 +246 +246 204016 018 999 999 03
212230 2153N 09428W 9815 00249 0096 +246 +246 201016 017 999 999 03
212300 2155N 09427W 9817 00248 0097 +244 +244 174014 015 999 999 03
212330 2156N 09426W 9811 00251 0094 +244 +242 155016 016 999 999 03
$$

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the NHC should redefine their mission. Someone wasn't following their job's obligations on this system. I really hope there is a good reason for the lack of an upgrade. Do you think we should bring Proenza back to the TPC? The same standards should apply to every system, and Mexico is a country. If this scenario (no upgrade) unfolded close to the United States and another Humberto scenario occurred, someone would be in huge trouble at the TPC. I just hope any additional problems can be averted. Additionally, there has been a clear LLC over the past ~24 hours. Since 94L's structure is improving close to land, I'm wondering as to why it wasn't upgraded with the reconnaissance data.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[skysummit]

Finally!!!


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1430 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST.
CROIX IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

[Brent]

TD 13!

[dtrain44]

They just waited on recon and it wasn't in in time: it never fails. Accuse the NHC of falling asleep at the switch and they end up OK. The post-season analysis will be interesting, though.