Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA latest forecast track has Man-yi making a bee line straight for Okinawa after about 80 hours. If this track verifies I'll head to Okinawa to cover this event, even if it doesn't turn into a whopper (cat 3 +) since the island is so close to Shanghai.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA latest forecast track has Man-yi making a bee line straight for Okinawa after about 80 hours. If this track verifies I'll head to Okinawa to cover this event, even if it doesn't turn into a whopper (cat 3 +) since the island is so close to Shanghai.

[P.K.]

Pretty close to typhoon status now.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0704 MAN-YI (0704)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 13.1N 137.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM

FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 17.9N 132.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 120600UTC 22.4N 130.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 130600UTC 26.7N 130.2E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT

[cycloneye]

TYPHOON 04W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 012
WTPN31 PGTW 100900
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.7N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.7N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.9N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 30.3N 130.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 33.9N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 136.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[Chacor]

I'm sorry, mods, but if you're gonna split threads and have new threads for each designation can it at least be the OFFICIAL designation, and no the JTWC's?

[P.K.]

Agree fully with that. This is not a typhoon just yet.

[cycloneye]

So it's not a typhoon yet? I saw in the weather channel that they showed Tyohoon Man-yi with 75 mph.

[P.K.]

See http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/. I must have posted the latest advisory to the other thread while you were making this one.

[Chacor]

No, not yet Luis, although it may change in about 30 minutes when the JMA issues its next bulletin. Remember that the Weather Channel will use JTWC information (as does CNN [International and USA], and as do most if not all American channels)

[Chacor]

Big storm. Hopefully the forecast track for a typhoon hitting southern Japan doesn't verify.

[cycloneye]

I will lock this until officially it's a typhoon.

[Chacor]

STILL a severe tropical storm from JMA.

574
FKPQ30 RJTD 101200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070710/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MAN-YI
NR: 13
PSN: N1340 E13635
MOV: NW 11KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 11/0000Z N1540 E13440
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 11/1200Z N1750 E13205
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 80KT
NXT MSG: 20070710/1800Z =

[cycloneye]

So chacor it's not a typhoon yet according to JMA which is the official word over that part of the world?

[Chacor]

Yes, that is correct Luis.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I was getting confused for a second there...I thought I'd started a new thread by accident!!

JMA still have this at 60kts but by the looks of the latest sat loop it seems to be getting it's act together and should be a typhoon soon enough.

[Cyclenall]

Why is there no posts in this thread on Monday? The only one was just barely on Monday (12:01 am) and then the next post is from early today. What happened?

This is a large system and if it wasn't so huge, it may have gone through EI. It's still stregnthening quickly enough though.

[WindRunner]

EI? E-rapid Intensification? Wow, I guess that's just technology today . . . everything can be done electronically . . .

Or is is just a coincidence that E is right next to R on the keyboard?


And check out the locked typhoon thread below this one, though I seriously doubt any of that is from Monday either . . .

[cycloneye]

EI? E-rapid Intensification? Wow, I guess that's just technology today . . . everything can be done electronically . . .

Or is is just a coincidence that E is right next to R on the keyboard?


And check out the locked typhoon thread below this one, though I seriously doubt any of that is from Monday either . . .

WindRunner,no word yet if it is official or not the upgrade to Typhoon?

[WindRunner]

Not yet. JMA always runs a good bit behind when it comes to issuing advisories, but usually with a storm like this it will be out within the hour. So 18z advisory would be out by 3pm EDT at the latest.

[cycloneye]

Not yet. JMA always runs a good bit behind when it comes to issuing advisories, but usually with a storm like this it will be out within the hour. So 18z advisory would be out by 3pm EDT at the latest.

Ok,thank you for that.I ask because as soon it's official,that Typhoon thread will open again and this one will be locked.