Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[Chacor]

09/0645 UTC 23.3N 86.7W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[dizzyfish]

I believe this will all come down to timing. Tx has two fronts prog to come through with the strongest one clearing the area on Friday/Saturday. If 90L hangs out or stalls it may get dragged/pushed out/up with the stronger of the two fronts.

I also saw mention yesterday in the local statements about a possible front hanging up in S GA/N FL. I'm sure that will play into the mix somewhere down the line.

Will be an interesting week to watch the tropics. Lots of bubbles out there.

But first persistance.

Time to leave now. I look forward to reading some good discussions when I get back this afternoon.

[HURAKAN]

09/0645 UTC 23.3N 86.7W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

You mean gulf of mexico

Isn't the GOM in the Atlantic Ocean!?!?!? Just a technicality.

[cycloneye]

09/1145 UTC 22.8N 88.2W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Infamous Invest 90L!!!:

[wxman57]

Very slim chance of development, 10-15% at best. Even the Canadian model only develops into into a TS, not a hurricane like every other feature it sees. I'm sure the NHC doesn't give it too much chance of really developing, they just wanted to see where the models took it and when. I'm not too concerned about it, yet. Always have to watch these thunderstorm clusters closely this time of year. Surface analysis shows no significant feature down there, not even a wave.

[HURAKAN]

Dr. Steve Lyons said that if anything were to develop it would move towards the panhandle of Florida.

[HollynLA]

Dr. Steve Lyons said that if anything were to develop it would move towards the panhandle of Florida.

but yet most models move it into Texas? hmmmmm?

[HURAKAN]

Dr. Steve Lyons said that if anything were to develop it would move towards the panhandle of Florida.

but yet most models move it into Texas? hmmmmm?

I know but that's what he said in the Tropical Update.

[robbielyn]

Dr. Steve Lyons said that if anything were to develop it would move towards the panhandle of Florida.

but yet most models move it into Texas? hmmmmm?

I know but that's what he said in the Tropical Update.

He sure did say that.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very slim chance of development, 10-15% at best. Even the Canadian model only develops into into a TS, not a hurricane like every other feature it sees. I'm sure the NHC doesn't give it too much chance of really developing, they just wanted to see where the models took it and when. I'm not too concerned about it, yet. Always have to watch these thunderstorm clusters closely this time of year. Surface analysis shows no significant feature down there, not even a wave.

I wanted a nice tropical storm to come near my coast
and give me some wave/wind action
I hope it maybe becomes a weak TS, I really
hope so, my surfer/stormchaser friends and I are
getting really desperate.

[Starburst]

Dr. Steve Lyons said that if anything were to develop it would move towards the panhandle of Florida.

Yep he did say that, but I sure seem to think it is moving west but maybe I just need another cup of coffee

[HURAKAN]

Dr. Steve Lyons said that if anything were to develop it would move towards the panhandle of Florida.

Yep he did say that, but I sure seem to think it is moving west but maybe I just need another cup of coffee

Maybe another Opal-like, Earl-like, track WITHOUT their intensities!!!

[HollynLA]

Don't get me wrong, I do believe Lyons did say that, but I'm wondering why he would pinpoint the panhandle when models show it going to Texas.

[lrak]

Texas needs a good swell, and with nothing at the surface no long good East fetch. If we could only get a little lower pressure to kick up the winds across the entire Gulf. One last great ride without a WETSUIT!

Mr. Waxman you sure have been right on the money this year, but you wrong this time "I want my two dollars"

I thought the shrear was going to relax a bit as the blob moved West? Why only the 10-15% Mr. Waxman57? The sheer?

[HURAKAN]

Don't get me wrong, I do believe Lyons did say that, but I'm wondering why he would pinpoint the panhandle when models show it going to Texas.

Unfortunately he didn't explain his reasoning.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dr. Steve Lyons said that if anything were to develop it would move towards the panhandle of Florida.

Yep he did say that, but I sure seem to think it is moving west but maybe I just need another cup of coffee

Maybe another Opal-like, Earl-like, track WITHOUT their intensities!!!

It would be perfect if it develops but does not
become a hurricane, a weak tropical storm is perfect.
Yes I want this to develop I think it may with the warm
waters but I hope that it does not go above 50 mph but
just that maybe that 50 mph gives
me some good squalls and wave action plus
it has been pretty dry here since early august with little
or no rain....

[Portastorm]

Like a few others have said, it's all a matter of timing here (that is, IF anything develops). A perusal of Texas NWSFO morning forecast discussions indicates that the cold front predicted to reach far into the state is now predicted to wash out short of the coast. The frontal boundary will be weak at best and more likely diffuse by mid-week. Consequently, there would not be a trough digging deep enough (or strong enough) into the Gulf to carry this disturbance north then northeast, I think.

If 90L does develop but does it slowly ... both the GFS and Euro show a much stronger front by late in the week (and subsequent trough moving west to east across the area) and this could definitely move whatever might be down there toward the NE Gulf.

[mattpetre]

Posted by me last night:

There's a low level circulation trying to get started in the southern GOM around 87N 23W that I'm predicting will cause an invest by tomorrow afternoon. By the time it starts to look like something of concern it may drift a bit further South and West and from there I think the CMC path is reasonable, but probably a little to far West...

Just my SWAG for the day.

Posted by me today:

Even I am surprised that I was right about the invest thing.... WOW, i really didn't think this would be anything until at least later today if not Monday. However, I will say that I do believe we see some low/mid level turning on satellite, there is an area of lower pressure, and the SST's are high... shear conditions will likely get better again. I believe a minimal hurricane is by no means out of the question by mid week. We shall see.

[tropicsgal05]

I heard Dr. Lyons say also that it would come towards the Florida Panhandle but things change and time will tell if it develops