Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[deltadog03]

I think this is what the euro has moving almost west towards florida at the end of its run. ** I think**

[gatorcane]

Where is the link to see the ECMWF model runs?

[wxman57]

Where is the link to see the ECMWF model runs?

Penn State E-wall is the best site:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[cycloneye]

HWRF Animation

HWRF has a major cane moving NW far from the Leewards.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 101949
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1949 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070910 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070910 1800 070911 0600 070911 1800 070912 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 40.2W 10.1N 42.1W 10.4N 43.8W 10.5N 45.2W
BAMD 9.7N 40.2W 9.9N 42.8W 9.9N 45.3W 9.7N 47.9W
BAMM 9.7N 40.2W 10.0N 42.2W 10.3N 44.1W 10.4N 45.8W
LBAR 9.7N 40.2W 10.0N 42.7W 10.4N 45.7W 10.9N 48.6W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070912 1800 070913 1800 070914 1800 070915 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 46.6W 11.4N 49.3W 11.7N 51.2W 12.2N 53.3W
BAMD 9.5N 50.5W 9.4N 55.5W 10.0N 59.8W 11.5N 63.1W
BAMM 10.6N 47.6W 11.1N 51.0W 11.8N 54.0W 12.3N 56.9W
LBAR 11.3N 51.5W 12.0N 56.6W 13.6N 60.0W 16.5N 61.6W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 40.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 37.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 35.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Folks,the 18:00 UTC BAMS came out very late!

[KWT]

Of course as with pretty much al lthe models it assumes the system is already moving WNW which is clearly wrong. Despite that the run is sort of believeable upto 84hrs but once that goes past and the system is taken about NNW then it seems to go completely wrong.

Models are seeing something to turn this system NW but the actual movement is not agreeing with the fictional set-up in the models.

Interesting bam models, still taking this system to hurricane status...but probably a little too far south, truth IMo will come inbetween the two opposing ideas as it normally is!

[cycloneye]

KWT,the BAMS are different going westbound.

[Derek Ortt]

BAMS are usually not that bad in this part of the basin this time of year.

The globals and GFDL tend to send everything to the north too quickly

[gatorcane]

if we see another low-rider like Felix and Dean I would be floored.

Absolutely stunned.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

WHXX01 KWBC 101949
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1949 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070910 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070910 1800 070911 0600 070911 1800 070912 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 40.2W 10.1N 42.1W 10.4N 43.8W 10.5N 45.2W
BAMD 9.7N 40.2W 9.9N 42.8W 9.9N 45.3W 9.7N 47.9W
BAMM 9.7N 40.2W 10.0N 42.2W 10.3N 44.1W 10.4N 45.8W
LBAR 9.7N 40.2W 10.0N 42.7W 10.4N 45.7W 10.9N 48.6W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070912 1800 070913 1800 070914 1800 070915 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 46.6W 11.4N 49.3W 11.7N 51.2W 12.2N 53.3W
BAMD 9.5N 50.5W 9.4N 55.5W 10.0N 59.8W 11.5N 63.1W
BAMM 10.6N 47.6W 11.1N 51.0W 11.8N 54.0W 12.3N 56.9W
LBAR 11.3N 51.5W 12.0N 56.6W 13.6N 60.0W 16.5N 61.6W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 61KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 40.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 37.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 35.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Folks,the 18:00 UTC BAMS came out very late!

At last!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[KWT]

BAMS are usually not that bad in this part of the basin this time of year.

The globals and GFDL tend to send everything to the north too quickly

Yeah, they have a habit of overdoing these sorts of weaknesses and favor reducing the strength of the ridge to quickly. given how deep it is I think it would be closer to the BAM runs then the GFS based models.

[MWatkins]

If the "center" develops...or is tracked anywhere close to where the NHC has the position fix...it is already way south of where the global models think it should be now.

The current position is 9.7N 40.2W...here are the forecast points of some of the more reliable models from 2AM this morning...for 2pm today:

GFS Ensemble Mean: 10.6N, 38.5W
CONSENSUS: 10.5N 38.7W
GFDL: 10.5N 38.7W
HWRF: 10.6N 39.2W
NOGAPS: 10.5N 37.8W

Notice they are all too slow...and too far north...hard to see this tracking NW immediately as the globals suggest...

MW

[Gustywind]

Gatorcane wrote:

if we see another low-rider like Felix and Dean I would be floored.

Absolutely stunned.

We seem more closer to that runs after runs since yesterday....
If this trend doesn't change before tommorow night , carib residents will be in a very dangerous position. So i keep watching it as i'm leeward resident Guadeloupe Gatorcane, but the the NW path seems to be less credible:?: hours after hours and the cone begins to be tight for us.....not good news. And if if if .... first in Guadeloupe we could be more concerned thereafter there's 90% that Cycloneye in Puerto Rico feel the effects of this..maybe hope no...future system...something to watch carefully for us!

[Brent]

Let us also remember that the models have for the most part been too far right so far this year with both of the big hurricanes, It was thought that Dean would clip or even miss the Yucatan and head towards Texas, and Felix was never supposed to go into Nicaragua. I just don't see this recurving at such a low latitude.

[canegrl04]

Let us also remember that the models have for the most part been too far right so far this year with both of the big hurricanes, It was thought that Dean would clip or even miss the Yucatan and head towards Texas, and Felix was never supposed to go into Nicaragua. I just don't see this recurving at such a low latitude.

There was strong ridging over the US with Dean and Felix.Its different this time around.We will see how it plays out. there have been low lat systems that curved North and hit the US. One example is Ivan

[destruction92]

Let us also remember that the models have for the most part been too far right so far this year with both of the big hurricanes, It was thought that Dean would clip or even miss the Yucatan and head towards Texas, and Felix was never supposed to go into Nicaragua. I just don't see this recurving at such a low latitude.

There was strong ridging over the US with Dean and Felix.Its different this time around.We will see how it plays out. there have been low lat systems that curved North and hit the US. One example is Ivan

How about Charley?



if it even "plays out" that is...I say season cancel.
And I'm not going to eat "crow" because I'm vegetarian

[canegrl04]

Let us also remember that the models have for the most part been too far right so far this year with both of the big hurricanes, It was thought that Dean would clip or even miss the Yucatan and head towards Texas, and Felix was never supposed to go into Nicaragua. I just don't see this recurving at such a low latitude.

There was strong ridging over the US with Dean and Felix.Its different this time around.We will see how it plays out. there have been low lat systems that curved North and hit the US. One example is Ivan

How about Charley?




if it even "plays out" that is...I say season cancel.
And I'm not going to eat "crow" because I'm vegetarian

Forgot about Charley. BTW, ivan formed at 10.2 N . Ridges and Troughs in the US CAN affect low lat systems


*edited by sg to remove canegrl04's post from inside destruction92's quote and to appear as her own post

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

257
WHXX04 KWBC 102323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    91L

INITIAL TIME  18Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0             9.4             40.0           270./12.0
   6            11.5             40.4           348./21.4
  12            10.6             40.7           195./ 9.5
  18            11.0             41.2           302./ 6.7
  24            11.4             41.2             7./ 4.1
  30            11.6             42.0           288./ 7.8
  36            12.2             42.7           310./ 9.2
  42            12.7             43.1           320./ 6.2
  48            13.5             43.6           324./ 9.4
  54            14.0             45.0           290./14.2
  60            14.4             46.1           289./11.5
  66            14.8             47.0           296./ 9.4
  72            15.3             47.5           309./ 7.2
  78            15.7             48.1           308./ 6.9
  84            16.2             48.6           318./ 6.9
  90            16.8             49.3           307./ 9.0
  96            17.2             50.1           301./ 8.9
 102            17.8             51.0           301./ 9.8
 108            18.1             52.2           283./12.3
 114            18.4             53.5           284./12.2
 120            18.7             54.5           288./10.1
 126            18.7             55.5           271./ 9.6


Wants to take it west at 5 days

[cycloneye]

Hmmm,more westward.