Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Stratosphere747]

11/2315 UTC 26.5N 94.2W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[jasons2k]

11/2315 UTC 26.5N 94.2W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Just as I predicted (in the last thread in TT).....it looks sick

[srainhoutx]

Tomorrow's DMAX should be imperative for this system.

Agree. Locally one can feel the change in the air, and it's not frontal related in my humble opinion.

[Stormcenter]

Okay come on now let's be realistic here. It's September 11th and this whatever is moving slowly, if any,over very warm GOM waters and shear is not an issue so how in the world can any of you be so sure this will not develop?

[CrazyC83]

Looking at QuikSCAT, this seems to be rotating clockwise...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas13.png

[wxman57]

Looking at QuikSCAT, this seems to be rotating clockwise...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas13.png

You're looking at the western part of a high pressure center. Look a little farther west and you'll see a sharp trof axis. Not a closed low. That's what it looks like on latest obs. Pressures are up a bit, winds down, a sharp trof axis tonight. Rain threat, not much of a TS threat. Should move inland tomorrow night.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at QuikSCAT, this seems to be rotating clockwise...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas13.png

You're looking at the western part of a high pressure center. Look a little farther west and you'll see a sharp trof axis. Not a closed low. That's what it looks like on latest obs. Pressures are up a bit, winds down, a sharp trof axis tonight. Rain threat, not much of a TS threat. Should move inland tomorrow night.

So, now a DeForrest Kelly image?

[Stormcenter]

Looking at QuikSCAT, this seems to be rotating clockwise...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas13.png

You're looking at the western part of a high pressure center. Look a little farther west and you'll see a sharp trof axis. Not a closed low. That's what it looks like on latest obs. Pressures are up a bit, winds down, a sharp trof axis tonight. Rain threat, not much of a TS threat. Should move inland tomorrow night.

wxman57 I know you've been singing the same tune all day about "no development" at all
with 90L so it will be interesting to see what your comments will be if it does. I usually would
buy into what you post but for some reasom with this one I'm not totally sold on it not doing anything. IMO

[Ed Mahmoud]

I suspect at best this is a 35 mph TD or 40 mph TS at landfall now. Just not impressive.

But a WSW wind at the databuoy East of BRO again...


. . . . . .(UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (FT/S)

200 E PT ISABEL 2300 83 85 240/ 6/ 8 1011.7 4/ 6

[chadtm80]

[srainhoutx]

Interesting AFD Update from EWX this evening...

000
FXUS64 KEWX 120142 AAB
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
842 PM CDT TUE SEP 11 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE 1ST PERIOD POPS BY 10 PERCENT AND
DROP THE MENTION OF PRECIP ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR AREA BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL DATA. THE NHC IS MONITORING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM TONIGHT
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING LATER
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF OUR SE COUNTIES MAY BE
AFFECTED...BUT THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL RUN FROM NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI...NE TO NORTH OF HOUSTON AND ALONG THE COAST.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=EWXAFDEWX

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at QuikSCAT, this seems to be rotating clockwise...
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas13.png

You're looking at the western part of a high pressure center. Look a little farther west and you'll see a sharp trof axis. Not a closed low. That's what it looks like on latest obs. Pressures are up a bit, winds down, a sharp trof axis tonight. Rain threat, not much of a TS threat. Should move inland tomorrow night.

wxman57 I know you've been singing the same tune all day about "no development" at all
with 90L so it will be interesting to see what you comments will be if it does. I usually will
buy into what you post but for some reasom with this one I'm not totally sold on it not doing anything. IMO

Well, one degreed met (Bastardi) posted at 4 pm, just before the convection poofed, that he was more sure than ever (whether named or not, a TC w/ sustained TS force winds), and one who says no way.


This is like what they say on the TNT cable network. "This is Drama". Tomorrow tells the tale.

I would have agreed 100% w/ Bastardi at 3 pm, but with rising pressure, and no deep convection, I would now give slightly tilt the odds in favor of wxman57. Plus, he is local, and posts more than once every 8 to 10 hours. At least when I'm awake.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe this won't be such a bad rain event for SE Texas after all. I suspect it'll be ingesting dry air from land, so even if it does become a TD or minimal TC, it 'd be one of those "half a storm" storms, with at least a partially exposed LLC and most of the convection East of the center, and if it does stay offshore, Louisiana would get most of the rain.

[Stratosphere747]

Hmm...

I was just complementing the Austin/San Antonio AFD's earlier today. That latest statement is just a bit too bullish. What is more surprising is that it is from this evening.

[Stormcenter]

Hmm...

I was just complementing the Austin/San Antonio AFD's earlier today. That latest statement is just a bit too bullish. What is more surprising is that it is from this evening.

Looks can be deceiving based on what you are seeing right now so I wouldn't call it too "bullish" just yet. Let's see what happens later tonight and tomorrow. IMO

[Ed Mahmoud]

WxMan57 just posted it was bed time on the 91L thread, so I guess no Dr. McCoy pronouncements until morning.



Bed time for me as well.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php

[canetracker]

Any chance that this can stall considering that it is sitting between 2 areas of high pressure?

[Extremeweatherguy]

yes, there is a chance. That is the reason the above image labels 90L as "stationary" and it is also the reason that JB thinks this is still offshore Corpus Christi on Thursday morning. We will just have to see what happens.

[canetracker]

Thanks Extreme. Texas sure does not need any more drenching weather.

Edit: And....poor Wxman57 needs some time off.