Ex-Ingrid north of Leewards

[gatorcane]

there is still alot of shear ahead of her for the next 24 hours or so then it should drop off as the ridge builds in to the north....

if she did come back at this point it would be truly amazing.

[CrazyC83]

there is still alot of shear ahead of her for the next 24 hours or so then it should drop off as the ridge builds in to the north....

if she did come back at this point it would be truly amazing.

Yeah I agree, it won't be until past 68°W before she has a chance at becoming a tropical cyclone once again. It is currently under 25-35 kt of shear and should remain so for about 24 hours more.

[LarryWx]

I still don't think the remnants of Ingrid, if they somehow were to regenerate, would have a reasonable chance of ever hitting SC/GA/FL. I know I may be considered evil for saying something as unpopular as what I just said since Ingrid is considered a fighter, but please don't shoot the messenger. Maybe I'll have better news next time.

[Ptarmigan]

You never know. I would not be surprised if Ingrid does come back. It could be possible the remnant of Ingrid does get absorbed by another low or tropical wave and reforms as another storm. Hurricane Katrina formed from the remnant of TD10 and another tropical wave. It developed near the Bahamas.

[wxmann_91]

The important thing is not that the LLC survives; rather, that the convection survives.

It is much easier to regenerate an open wave than it is to regenerate a remnant low.

[Sanibel]

Flare-up just on the east side of Ingrid looks shear induced.

[skysummit]

What's funny is the NHC keeps mentioning no re-development is expected the next "couple" of days. What about days 3, 4, and 5???

[gatorcane]

Ingrid may just be the one we should be watching. She still has a nice spin and the convection last night that the shear blew off looked the most impressive since Saturday......

and ULL winds are decreasing not too far now ahead of her:

[gatorcane]

she blew up some nice but sheared convection last night closer to the center then we have seen in several days.

and the shear should start to relax later today and into tonight. This is her chance after going through shear over the past 4-5 days.

[gatorcane]

Folks you can clearly see the ridge is FINALLY starting to build in just north of Ingrid on this WV loop. Look at the orange wedge pushing SW north and west of her.

She definitely will have an opportunity soon to take advantage of the better upper-level environment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Puerto Rico satellite image:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr.html

[gatorcane]

The "center" of what remains of Ingrid appear to be at about 17N 62W (just NE of the northernmost Leeward islands) and nearly stationary or a slight WNW drift. You can see it through the great link Chris provided above:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-vis.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With a building ridge I will watch this very very closely-
shear is favorable ahead of it near the bahamas.

[gatorcane]

Ingrid is still seeing 30K+ of wind shear out of the West. But current wind shear maps show that the 10K-20K range is not too far to the WNW and its only pushing closer to Ingrid as a narrow ridge is wedging itself inbetween two ULLs (one over Florida and the other one off to Ingrid's NE). Conditions would be marginally favorable but development is possible.

[Frank2]

I don't think so - another ULL is about to crunch the remainder of it...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

and, the disturbance over northeast Florida seems to be another ULL, drifting west, so, little development perhaps from either...

[ciclonson]

Hey gator, wouldn't it be a little north of where you have it? Look at the rgb loop.

[boca]

If ex Ingrid regenerates I'll eat two servings of crow.

[fci]

Less than 15% in my book.

The actual outcome will either be 100% of 0% so your prediction will be wrong. I don't understand why Dr. Masters and many other pro mets talk about a certain % chance of development when it pertains to the tropics. It either will happen or it wont. In order for someone to judge the accuracy of your 15% prediction, they would need a good 100 past instances where you gave a 15% chance of development and see if development indeed occurred 15/100 times. We're not talking about a 15% chance of rain here, where showers will be widely scattered across an area so you just give a 15% chance of one spot getting wet. Tropical development has two solutions that are possible, and one of them will occur every single time: development or no development. I say to all those % "forecasters" just tell it like it is. Funny how I've never seen the NHC give a % forecast. That is a big tell. They put it on the line each and every time and never hide. Kudos to NHC.

Miami:
Sorry that I am responding to this post so much later than when you posted it but I have not exactly been paying as much attention as when there is a real system out there.

Why are you railing against the statement of someone giving the system a less than 15% chance of development?
The whole theory of percentages is based on chances out of 100.
But you knew that.

It is WHOLLY logical to assign a percentage.
The poster is simply saying that they think that less than 15 out of 100 times this would develop.
But I think you knew that.

Read some of the Pro Mets here, as I know you do.
They wil sometimes assign a percentage to a development chance.

Sure beats saying "I think it has a PRETTY good chance" (more than 25% and less than 50%)
A GOOD chance (more than 50%)
It WILL (100%)
NO WAY (0%)
SMALL (15%-25%)

You get the point?
It is just a numerical assignment of what someone thinks the chance of development is.

Sorry if this is a bit sarcastic but I was just a little surprised to see you criticise the percentage statement.

[gatorcane]

I don't think so - another ULL is about to crunch the remainder of it...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

and, the disturbance over northeast Florida seems to be another ULL, drifting west, so, little development perhaps from either...

Are you talking about the one that is NE of Ingrid pushing SW?

[tolakram]

Ingrid is still on the Navy site and everything is up to date. Shouldn't this be treated as an active invest?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html