Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[canegrl04]

If this is the scenario, then the only thing that could help would be shear.

Hopefully.Because if it is light, we could be looking at a cat 4 or 5 headed for the TX/LA border next week

[cajungal]

It if it makes landfall even to the Tx/La border, it would be bad news for Terrebonne Parish. Lots of rain and flooding if anything.

[Jagno]

If this is the scenario, then the only thing that could help would be shear.

Hopefully.Because if it is light, we could be looking at a cat 4 or 5 headed for the TX/LA border next week

Let's not start the "super" speculation just yet. Many of us still shell-shocked over Rita and a bit nervous about this one..................mainly me.

[jhamps10]

It if it makes landfall even to the Tx/La border, it would be bad news for Terrebonne Parish. Lots of rain and flooding if anything.

also could lead to evacs of parts of Nola, remember Rita made some of the repairs to breach again and reflood parts of the city. I believe I heard that a strong TS would make lower plaqumens parrish evacute,

[duris]

It if it makes landfall even to the Tx/La border, it would be bad news for Terrebonne Parish. Lots of rain and flooding if anything.

also could lead to evacs of parts of Nola, remember Rita made some of the repairs to breach again and reflood parts of the city. I believe I heard that a strong TS would make lower plaqumens parrish evacute,

I was in NOLA working on my house when Nagin ordered everyone out for Rita. This time, I don't think NOLA itself would require evacuation because of the state of the repairs and the flood gates, unless the fear was that it would turn before a Rita like hit.

Personally, we won't stay for much of anything anywhere close since we are in an area that flooded, but not so much out of fear from the levees but due to having children and knowing that the power would go out and likely stay out for a while. The stories my electrician told me about how bad Entergy's power grid was even before Katrina are enough to make me leave.

[gboudx]

It if it makes landfall even to the Tx/La border, it would be bad news for Terrebonne Parish. Lots of rain and flooding if anything.

also could lead to evacs of parts of Nola, remember Rita made some of the repairs to breach again and reflood parts of the city. I believe I heard that a strong TS would make lower plaqumens parrish evacute,

Probably mandatory for those still living in FEMA trailers, and voluntary for everyone else if there's a strong tropical storm. The back levees are high enough to protect them from the storm surge. After what Katrina did to them down there, I bet most everyone would leave.

[Wx_Warrior]

Im not suggesting 4-5 or anything like that....

Just be prepared for 1 up...Just went thru Humberto.

[jhamps10]

Im not suggesting 4-5 or anything like that....

Just be prepared for 1 up...Just went thru Humberto.

yeah I'm not either, just too much in the shear that's very changeable to predict a 4 or a 5, but a cat 1 is certainly not out of the question. but if the GFS is right in the shear forecasts, I would not be suprised to see a major before all is set and done.

[PhillyWX]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_114l.gif

TX/LA border landfall (very Rita-esque).

And then it moves up to the DFW area. Interesting, but I ain't buying it yet.

That's how the GFS had Rita as well but it was supposed to mow up I-45.

[cycloneye]

800
WHXX04 KWBC 182324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.7 78.8 310./ 4.1
6 25.9 78.8 15./ 1.9
12 26.3 78.9 336./ 3.9
18 27.2 79.1 348./ 9.7
24 28.5 79.8 334./14.4
30 28.9 81.1 285./12.3
36 28.4 83.3 256./20.0
42 27.8 84.2 240./ 9.6
48 27.9 84.9 272./ 6.2
54 28.2 85.8 289./ 8.5
60 28.2 86.8 273./ 8.6
66 28.5 87.9 283./10.1
72 28.7 88.8 287./ 7.9
78 29.2 89.8 292./10.2
84 29.6 91.2 287./12.2
90 30.5 92.6 303./15.6
96 31.2 94.2 295./15.3
102 32.2 95.6 302./15.2
108 33.2 96.7 313./14.4
114 34.7 97.4 333./15.4
120 36.1 97.3 7./14.5
126 38.0 96.5 23./20.2


18z GFDL landfall in Louisiana.

[Wx_Warrior]

What part? not near a chart...thanks

[skysummit]

I didn't plot it but those coordinates look near Grand Isle, LA.

[cycloneye]

What part? not near a chart...thanks

Between New Iberia and Morgan City.

[Ivanhater]

[skysummit]

I didn't plot it but those coordinates look near Grand Isle, LA.

Yes...Grand Isle.

[Blown Away]

800
WHXX04 KWBC 182324
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 25.7 78.8 310./ 4.1
6 25.9 78.8 15./ 1.9
12 26.3 78.9 336./ 3.9
18 27.2 79.1 348./ 9.7
[b]24 28.5 79.8 334./14.4
30 28.9 81.1 285./12.3
36 28.4 83.3 256./20.0
42 27.8 84.2 240./ 9.6
48 27.9 84.9 272./ 6.2
54 28.2 85.8 289./ 8.5
60 28.2 86.8 273./ 8.6
66 28.5 87.9 283./10.1
72 28.7 88.8 287./ 7.9
78 29.2 89.8 292./10.2
84 29.6 91.2 287./12.2
90 30.5 92.6 303./15.6
96 31.2 94.2 295./15.3
102 32.2 95.6 302./15.2
108 33.2 96.7 313./14.4
114 34.7 97.4 333./15.4
120 36.1 97.3 7./14.5
126 38.0 96.5 23./20.2

[/b]
18z GFDL landfall in Louisiana.

Center does not make it onshore in SFL for 24 hours per GFDL. WPB around 80W.

[Extremeweatherguy]

GDFL is a shift south from Earlier. Instead of a direct New Orleans hit, it now has the storm barely hugging the southern LA coast as it heads W/WNW toward eastern TX.

[ROCK]

GDFL is a shift south from Earlier. Instead of a direct New Orleans hit, it now has the storm barely hugging the southern LA coast as it heads W/WNW toward eastern TX.

Maybe the EURO was on to something in its earlier runs......I must admit I am not a EURO hugger at all but this year it has been almost dead on track wise....

[hicksta]

Where exactly is the euro?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where exactly is the euro?

Here is a look at the 12z EURO prediction for 120 hrs..