INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[Gustywind]

This the type of situation that is realy uncomfortable: a strong wave,close to the islands,no close circulation,but that may change at any time,and suddenly we got a TS when it's not a hurricane in our hands....We call these systems here a "Barbadian",and the latest was Marilyn ,a hurricane in 1995;also i remember the Storm call "Helena "in October 1963...and there are others. So i stay tuned,and our meteorological offices are in alert to face these brutal situations....Our friends in the Gulf or South Florida known these rapidly growing systems...no much time to react!!!

Absolutely HUC you have well resumed the synopsis and this type of system, i remember José in 1999 too, ....maybe another one of this family of Marylin, Helena...systems not too big but very well concentrated and unpredictable...growing with a type of fury in a close perimeter...we should continue to monitor this system, we could see a flaring up at any time with this , definitely something to watch!

[gatorcane]

looks to be moving more WNW this afternoon. I don't like how the CMC wants to bring it to the Bahamas and nearing SE Florida -- this is not the first time the CMC wants to bring something into South Florida but you wonder if maybe it will just get one right for a change - other models take it more WNW. None of them recurve it. Looks like the only think we can hope for is for it to fizzle.

['CaneFreak]

Looks as though this system is flaring up again on IR. This could be the most interesting week all season!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[canegrl04]

Looks as though this system is flaring up again on IR. This could be the most interesting week all season!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

After Ingrid and TD 10 fizzled,I was beginning to believe this season wasclosing down for the year.Now it seems to really be heating up with activity.Invest 96 and invest 97 are the ones everybody from the Carribean to the US need to pay special attention to

[JonathanBelles]

Looks as though this system is flaring up again on IR. This could be the most interesting week all season!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

After Ingrid and TD 10 fizzled,I was beginning to believe this season wasclosing down for the year.Now it seems to really be heating up with activity.Invest 96 and invest 97 are the ones everybody from the Carribean to the US need to pay special attention to

Ive noticed that between systems it takes 5-10 days for more activity to start this season.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 19:45 UTC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would place the LLC or core of the system around 9 north/55.5 west. This is from a still image not a loop because the RMASS needs to take one of its loops off 94L,,,The nhc loops take a lot out of the computer. GRRR.

If it does not head west-northwest this could hit south America.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They just put it on the storm. Take a few hours to get enough images to stop the jumping.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The NWS Melborne says strong ridge dominates until
Thursday then a strong trough from thursday into
next weekend. I am not sure how this
would impact the future track of 97L, and
hope someone could shed some light on this:

MON NIGHT-TUE...SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
VEER WINDS TO EAST. THE NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
(TAIL END OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY) PUSHING BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTH PENINSULA. THE MODELS SHOW WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
AVERAGING ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS DRIER AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PENINSULA. THESE TWO PARAMETERS OFTEN
POINT TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CAN RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.

WILL STAY WITH 30 PERCENT COASTAL POPS MON NIGHT BUT THIS MIGHT NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP IN LATER FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH. MAV POPS
ARE 50-60 PERCENT FOR TUE WHICH IS CLOSE TO OUR CURRENT 50 POPS AND
DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE THIS EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST WHERE I
WILL MENTION LIKELY CHANCES.

WED...THE GFS SHOWS THE INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE GULF AND
HINTS AT A WEAK LOW FORMING...WHILE THE NAM/WRF SHOWS A MORE
DISTINCT LOW. IN ANY EVENT...WE SHOULD STAY VERY MOIST WITH THE MEX
POPS CONTINUING TO BE IN THE LIKELY RANGE. HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS
TO 50 PERCENT AS IT LOOKS LIKE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SITUATION.

THU-SUN...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THU-FRI. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
LOCAL WINDS TO VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WOULD SWITCH CONVECTION BACK TO A
DAYTIME DRIVEN REGIME AND EXPECT AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR
THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

SOURCE: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

[Derek Ortt]

very unimpressed with this system. had it have been located about 500 miles to the east, it would be a shoe in with the upepr high. Just a little too far west it appears

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1060 MILES WEST OF THE
AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED
AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WAS CANCELED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM
ARE CURRENTLY VERY STRONG AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT COULD STILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR IT
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[RL3AO]

[Blown Away]

Where do you find that chart?

[RL3AO]

Where do you find that chart?

I created it.

[Brent]

Where do you find that chart?

I created it.

Homeland Security would be proud.

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like 97L is another "could have been" system. Not very organized, upper level winds not looking good, just does not have the "it" factor.

However, I would like to know why SHIPS shows a hurricane with this in just a few days....any thoughts?

[cycloneye]

I dont like the orientation of that cone from SE to NW.

[Brent]

Looks like 97L is another "could have been" system. Not very organized, upper level winds not looking good, just does not have the "it" factor.

However, I would like to know why SHIPS shows a hurricane with this in just a few days....any thoughts?

SHIPS calls for every invest to be a hurricane by usually Day 3 or 4. This is nothing new.

[flwxwatcher]

Day 7 forecast from HPC.. they show a low approaching the Western Bahamas.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

[HouTXmetro]

Where do you find that chart?

I created it.

Homeland Security would be proud.

R.I.P. HouTXmetro 1979-2007

LMAO

I'm sorry board but that was funny. Back on Topic