Ex Tropical Depression MELISSA- Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

Wow. I don't get online until now and I missed an invest and now we have a depression.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This looks like a tropical storm. Hopefully it is not another TD 14 from a few years ago. TD 14 have been acting a lot like TD 10s.

[Cyclenall]

It's going to recurve for sure (99% chance), but this is not a fish storm as it's already affecting the Cape Verde islands as a tropical cyclone (and maybe a TS). There is even the chance it could affect the Canarys as TheEuropean stated in the other thread. I know it's generally known to be large landmass but any landmass counts.

[JTD]

It's going to recurve for sure (99% chance), but this is not a fish storm as it's already affecting the Cape Verde islands as a tropical cyclone (and maybe a TS). There is even the chance it could affect the Canarys as TheEuropean stated in the other thread. I know it's generally known to be large landmass but any landmass counts.

Speaking of the Canary Islands,

There's no chance that this storm could activate the volcano there is it if it makes landfall? I remember a thread on here months ago that a t.s. affecting the canary islands could do something to the volcano there. I don't remember the exact details but needless to say that we don't want to see that volcano active.

Sorry for the stupid question.

[WmE]

If it was to affect the Canarys (I seriously doubt it will make it there tropical) it would be very weak. It could affect Europe as an extratropical low though.

[WmE]

It's going to recurve for sure (99% chance), but this is not a fish storm as it's already affecting the Cape Verde islands as a tropical cyclone (and maybe a TS). There is even the chance it could affect the Canarys as TheEuropean stated in the other thread. I know it's generally known to be large landmass but any landmass counts.

Speaking of the Canary Islands,

There's no chance that this storm could activate the volcano there is it if it makes landfall? I remember a thread on here months ago that a t.s. affecting the canary islands could do something to the volcano there. I don't remember the exact details but needless to say that we don't want to see that volcano active.

Sorry for the stupid question.

I think there is a mountainside which would collapse creating a huge tsunami. (If I remember correctly)

[HURAKAN]

It's going to recurve for sure (99% chance), but this is not a fish storm as it's already affecting the Cape Verde islands as a tropical cyclone (and maybe a TS). There is even the chance it could affect the Canarys as TheEuropean stated in the other thread. I know it's generally known to be large landmass but any landmass counts.

Speaking of the Canary Islands,

There's no chance that this storm could activate the volcano there is it if it makes landfall? I remember a thread on here months ago that a t.s. affecting the canary islands could do something to the volcano there. I don't remember the exact details but needless to say that we don't want to see that volcano active.

Sorry for the stupid question.

No question is stupid.

Hurricanes (tropical cyclones in general) are superficial expressions of Mother Nature. They have no effect on what is happening inside the planet. The reverse is true, in a very active phase of volcanic activity, which has been experienced many times by the Earth, the gasses ejected by the volcanoes can block the heat from the Sun, and thereafter, cooling the sea-surface temperatures. But that's not the work of one volcano, when I say "active phase of volcanic activity" I mean, tens or hundreds of volcanoes erupting at the same time.

[HURAKAN]

It's going to recurve for sure (99% chance), but this is not a fish storm as it's already affecting the Cape Verde islands as a tropical cyclone (and maybe a TS). There is even the chance it could affect the Canarys as TheEuropean stated in the other thread. I know it's generally known to be large landmass but any landmass counts.

Speaking of the Canary Islands,

There's no chance that this storm could activate the volcano there is it if it makes landfall? I remember a thread on here months ago that a t.s. affecting the canary islands could do something to the volcano there. I don't remember the exact details but needless to say that we don't want to see that volcano active.

Sorry for the stupid question.

I think there is a mountainside which would collapse creating a huge tsunami. (If I remember correctly)

I don't want to deviate much from TD 14 but what you're saying is already happening. The island of La Palma is being broken in two and one side is moving towards the ocean. It would take a large explosion from the volcano to cause it to slide towards the ocean but it could happen. The scary part is that it could happen at any time although at this moment the volcano (Cumbre Vieja) is quiet!!!

[WmE]

It's going to recurve for sure (99% chance), but this is not a fish storm as it's already affecting the Cape Verde islands as a tropical cyclone (and maybe a TS). There is even the chance it could affect the Canarys as TheEuropean stated in the other thread. I know it's generally known to be large landmass but any landmass counts.

Speaking of the Canary Islands,

There's no chance that this storm could activate the volcano there is it if it makes landfall? I remember a thread on here months ago that a t.s. affecting the canary islands could do something to the volcano there. I don't remember the exact details but needless to say that we don't want to see that volcano active.

Sorry for the stupid question.

No question is stupid.

Hurricane are superficial expressions of Mother Nature. They have no effect on what is happening inside the planet. The reverse is true, in a very active phase of volcanic activity, which has been experienced many times by the Earth, the gasses ejected by the volcanoes can block the heat from the Sun, and thereafter, cooling the sea-surface temperatures. But that's not the work of one volcano, when I say "active phase of volcanic activity" I mean, tens or hundreds of volcanoes erupting at the same time.

Ultimately, the gases released by volcanoes would contribute to the greenhouse effect.

[HURAKAN]

Ultimately, the gases released by volcanoes would contribute to the greenhouse effect.

But that would be after a period of cooling.

[JonathanBelles]

It's going to recurve for sure (99% chance), but this is not a fish storm as it's already affecting the Cape Verde islands as a tropical cyclone (and maybe a TS). There is even the chance it could affect the Canarys as TheEuropean stated in the other thread. I know it's generally known to be large landmass but any landmass counts.

Speaking of the Canary Islands,

There's no chance that this storm could activate the volcano there is it if it makes landfall? I remember a thread on here months ago that a t.s. affecting the canary islands could do something to the volcano there. I don't remember the exact details but needless to say that we don't want to see that volcano active.

Sorry for the stupid question.

I think there is a mountainside which would collapse creating a huge tsunami. (If I remember correctly)

There is http://archives.cnn.com/2001/TECH/scien ... idal.wave/

[HURAKAN]

latest:



Look at the outflow.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN AT 28/1500 UTC NEAR 14.1N 26.5W MOVING WEST 6 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WERE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/
WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS DEPRESSION DEVELOPED IN AN
AREA OF DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CENTER
WITH WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A SHIP LOCATED JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED 29 KNOTS. THIS DEPRESSION
HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS LOW. THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERNS FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS
SUGGEST THAT THE FUTURE TRACK OF T.D. FOURTEEN WILL BE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH...ENCOUNTERING HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 48 HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W...
AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W. TWO OTHER BURSTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 16N23W
AND 16N25.5W.

[crm6360]

Per the GFS, Melissa will soon realize she made a mistake leaving Africa and is going to turn around and head back to Mama and Papa until they feel it is safer out there.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

looks like it is meeting the same fate as Karen... center is well exposed to the west of the convection

[HURAKAN]

287
WHXX01 KWBC 281842
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1842 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FOURTEEN (AL142007) 20070928 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070928 1800 070929 0600 070929 1800 070930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 26.5W 15.5N 28.2W 17.2N 29.8W 18.5N 31.2W
BAMD 14.0N 26.5W 14.5N 27.2W 15.2N 28.0W 16.1N 28.9W
BAMM 14.0N 26.5W 14.6N 27.6W 15.2N 29.0W 15.8N 30.5W
LBAR 14.0N 26.5W 14.4N 27.1W 15.8N 28.2W 17.6N 29.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 37KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 37KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070930 1800 071001 1800 071002 1800 071003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 32.6W 22.9N 34.1W 24.7N 34.0W 25.0N 30.5W
BAMD 17.0N 29.9W 19.1N 31.6W 20.8N 32.5W 22.5N 26.8W
BAMM 16.6N 32.2W 17.8N 35.6W 18.7N 39.6W 19.4N 43.1W
LBAR 20.2N 30.2W 25.5N 27.9W 27.1N 20.8W 27.2N 13.5W
SHIP 35KTS 28KTS 16KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 16KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 26.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 25.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 25.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Cryomaniac]

If it was to affect the Canarys (I seriously doubt it will make it there tropical) it would be very weak. It could affect Europe as an extratropical low though.

Extratropical lows have a pretty big impact sometimes. I'm not 100% sure, but wasn't that what caused the strong winds in the UK in october 2000?

[HURAKAN]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1745 UTC 13.8N 26.5W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Missed.