INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[x-y-no]

Based on current visible the LLC appears to be forming near 27.2N/71.2W which is NE of the 12Z model suite...

It's awfully hard to tell. There might be something there, or just a little south of there. It would make more sense in terms of the location of most of the convection, since the shear is out of the north.

I really can't see much of anything in the vicinity where the models were initialized.

[boca]

Based on current visible the LLC appears to be forming near 27.2N/71.2W which is NE of the 12Z model suite...

It's awfully hard to tell. There might be something there, or just a little south of there. It would make more sense in terms of the location of most of the convection, since the shear is out of the north.

I really can't see much of anything in the vicinity where the models were initialized.

Look at the curving of the clouds on the northern end of the cloud shield.At the very end of the loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[OuterBanker]

This will be a Gulf problem. The high over us will prevent the front front in the midwest from reaching us and will protect us from any rain or tropical moisture. This is unfortunate because we need the rain badly. I also think this will be first chance for a near major hit on the conus this year.

[Derek Ortt]

usually, storms in the BOC do NOT turn to the north this time of year

It is very common for storms in the south central GOM to dive SW into the BOC and into Mexico. remember Stan and even Lorenzo

This track is not at all inconsistent with climo or the dynamics

[boca]

I wonder where gatorcane is he'd be all over this system.

[Buck]

We've had some big monsters start up right here (I don't even need to name the two most obvious recent ones). I'm getting very concerned.

[ConvergenceZone]

Derek, does that mean that systems don't dig far enough south this time of year to pick them up and turn them North?

[cycloneye]

12z NAM at 54 hours

12z NAM at 60 Hours

12z NAM at 66 Hours

12z NAM at 72 Hours

12z NAM at 84 Hours

[boca]

I think the models initialized 92L too far south.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think the center is where vortex pointed out a few posts back.

[Stormcenter]

This will be a Gulf problem. The high over us will prevent the front front in the midwest from reaching us and will protect us from any rain or tropical moisture. This is unfortunate because we need the rain badly. I also think this will be first chance for a near major hit on the conus this year.

A big prediction for something that is not even there yet and may never be.
But hey anything is possible in the tropics though I'm not sold on it at all especially
in October.

[boca]

This will be a Gulf problem. The high over us will prevent the front front in the midwest from reaching us and will protect us from any rain or tropical moisture. This is unfortunate because we need the rain badly. I also think this will be first chance for a near major hit on the conus this year.

A big prediction for something that is not even there yet and may never be.
But hey anything is possible in the tropics though I'm not sold on it at all especially
in October.

You should look at the floater on this more closely and you'd change your mind.

[wxman57]

Wxman57..You called it...About 3 days ago you mentioned your participating in a bike event this weekend

With possibly 2 named storms including one Gulf threat, it looks like we'll have to cancel our trip now. I only wanted a single day off in October, Saturday. If 92L holds off developing until late Saturday, I MIGHT make it. But once our clients in the Gulf get word of a possible hurricane in the southern Gulf early next week, it'll be nuts around here. Early indications are a west track into Mexico.

[Sanibel]

My eye is telling me 90L is keeping 92L down for now.

[Typhoon_Willie]

October is noted for quite a few major canes... Wilma and Mitch come to my mind off hand. My avatar is a radar image of Wilma going over my home town in fact!

[Stormcenter]

This will be a Gulf problem. The high over us will prevent the front front in the midwest from reaching us and will protect us from any rain or tropical moisture. This is unfortunate because we need the rain badly. I also think this will be first chance for a near major hit on the conus this year.

A big prediction for something that is not even there yet and may never be.
But hey anything is possible in the tropics though I'm not sold on it at all especially
in October.

You should look at the floater on this more closely and you'd change your mind.

I think the NHC would be jumping all over this is that were the case. I'm not saying it won't develop but only saying that to predict it becoming a "major" hurricane already is a little premature to say the least considering the false alarms we've had so far this season and the time of season. IMO

[Derek Ortt]

I think your eye is telling you wrong, Sanibel

90L is not doing nything to the Bahamas system. Not with the ridging over the system. As 90L moves farther west, the ridging over the Bahamian low should become even better defined, and could allow for steady intensification of the surface low starting late tomorrow

[Stormcenter]

October is noted for quite a few major canes... Wilma and Mitch come to my mind off hand.

Yes but rare occurences and not common in October. Unlike if were August or September. Again I'm not saying something won't spin up but only that the odds
are stacked against it happening and if it does then becoming a major hurricane. Hey only my opinion. As I always say climatology is our friend.

[Vortex]

Well said Derek...

[Derek Ortt]

except that every single la nina event since 1998 has had at least a cat 4 in October and November. The chances of not seeing a major prior to the end of the season are much less than the chances that we do

[Vortex]

12Z NAM

Has it coming more west after +60 towards S.FL/Keys...Watching trends...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif