INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[srainhoutx]

Good view via VS SAT Loop this evening before sunset of 90L. Seems to have slowed down a bit this afternoon and finally "some" convection closer to LLC...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Yankeegirl]

This is the most boring storm that i have ever seen! Its almost invisible!

[srainhoutx]

This is the most boring storm that i have ever seen! Its almost invisible!

Just hoping for a little rain for us neighbor/yankeegirl

[HURAKAN]

[Extremeweatherguy]

A little too late, but I think the center kicks off convection tonight and hold until landfall early tommorow.

Well if that happens, then I would expect an upgrade to STD/TD or STS/TS before landfall (given the fact that it has a well-defined LLC and strong surface winds). It definitely is looking too late for any kind of significant strengthening though.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Check the outer coarse grid on the 18Z GFDL on 90L. It brings a weak area of low pressure that starts as 92L into the Gulf and headed Northwest.

[Recurve]

God, I don't ask for much, but...please don't give those folks in SW LA anything but a naked swirl. I missed ever seeing Holly Beach before Rita. I wouldn't want to lose anymore of le coeur de l'acadiana.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 050033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC FRI OCT 5 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20071005 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071005 0000 071005 1200 071006 0000 071006 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 91.7W 28.1N 93.4W 28.9N 95.2W 30.0N 97.0W
BAMD 27.4N 91.7W 28.0N 93.2W 29.0N 95.4W 30.6N 97.9W
BAMM 27.4N 91.7W 27.9N 93.3W 28.7N 95.4W 29.9N 97.4W
LBAR 27.4N 91.7W 28.1N 93.2W 29.2N 95.0W 30.7N 96.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071007 0000 071008 0000 071009 0000 071010 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.4N 98.4W 36.4N 99.1W 42.4N 96.0W 43.9N 91.7W
BAMD 33.0N 100.4W 40.0N 103.7W 41.5N 100.2W 45.0N 91.0W
BAMM 31.5N 99.3W 37.4N 100.4W 42.5N 98.6W 44.1N 91.3W
LBAR 32.8N 97.7W 40.2N 94.7W 46.3N 84.8W 38.4N 72.3W
SHIP 38KTS 40KTS 38KTS 33KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 91.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 90.1W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 26.8N LONM24 = 87.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Sean in New Orleans]

Just as I thought...New Orleans is on the East side and we have had several bouts of torrential rainfall today...I was at work and three times today we had extremely heavy rain and more is on the way. But, it is needed, so we're not complaining. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes All of the firecrackers with this system are going to be in Louisiana. It is giving us bouts of extremely heavy rain. I'm actually looking forward to more torrential rainfall tonight. Me and my dog enjoy sitting on the front porch watching it fall.

[T-man]

Don't make me laugh too hard, Sean. No stations are reporting any substantial rainfall in the metro area. If you have some hard numbers to back up your claims, please provide them.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Don't make me laugh too hard, Sean. No stations are reporting any substantial rainfall in the metro area. If you have some hard numbers to back up your claims, please provide them.

I registered 3.3 inches in Lakeview on Canal Blvd...(two blocks from the lake) for the days total in a rain gauge we have set up behind our work. With that said, when I drove down Canal Blvd towards Harrison Ave. it did seem to clear up and I actually saw blue sky in the distance of Downtown.

[CrazyC83]

Is that a closed circulation on that satellite picture? TD15 perhaps?

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Stormcenter]

10:30 PM TWO:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

It looks like 90L has slowed down somewhat. It still looks pretty pathetic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, its not going to do anything, but if you stare at this particular IR satellite loop, you can see the Houston urban heat island

[Coredesat]

Is that a closed circulation on that satellite picture? TD15 perhaps?

It's a naked swirl. Can't have a TD without convection no matter how well defined the circulation is, and there is no convection to speak of anywhere near the center.

[Yankeegirl]

Maybe we should call it the invisible woman?

[TSmith274]

I'm in N.O. and I've had less than an inch all day. Nothing on the way either according to radar. Sean, you and your dog... go to bed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TD4 of 2000 had nearly no convection just a naked swirl. Yes you can have a td with little to no convection. The thing is the LLC has to form a defined wind field and keep it going with out convection, that is another story all together. But a td is a closed wind field with a tropical low pressure area. There is not even a offical wind that it needs to be. As far as I can tell through out the years of watching them, I would say it needs to be at least 20-25 knots to have a closed LLC.

[Steve]

Nice little training band heading my way circa 1:29am radar - not sure how far inland it will come.

It's a pretty nice night out here in the middle of the sugar cane fields. We are +/- at the top of the "m" in "Houma".

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes