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DESTRUCTION5
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#6201 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:11 pm

12z GFDL Says Houston we have a prob..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... thatlantic
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Re: DEAN Global Models=12z GFS,NOGAPS posted ,GFDL shortly

#6202 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:12 pm

Should we expect a Southern shift in the next NHC update?
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Re: DEAN Global Models=12z GFS,NOGAPS posted ,GFDL shortly

#6203 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:14 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Should we expect a Southern shift in the next NHC update?
Depends on the model consensus. So far, the NOGAPS and GFS are quite similar to their previous runs (slightly further south on the GFS). If the GFDL, UKMET and others stay north though, then do not expect much of a change.
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#6204 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:14 pm

GFS and EURO are both not worth the paper they're printed on. There is a reaosn why I refuse to even consider their solutions when making a forecast

GFS has a tendency to do things that go against the dynamics of the atmosphere (sending Katrina through the ridge into Myrtle Beach being its worst) and the EURO is a mid latitude, medimum range model... not a TC model
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: DEAN Global Models=12z GFS,NOGAPS posted ,GFDL shortly

#6205 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:14 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Should we expect a Southern shift in the next NHC update?
Depends on the model consensus. So far, the NOGAPS and GFS are quite similar to their previous runs (slightly further south on the GFS). If the GFDL, UKMET and others stay north though, then do not expect much of a change.



GFDL kills you
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#6206 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:14 pm

Dean is really looking comfy in the Caribbean. Very impressive. He will be wobbling alright but not enough for Jamaica unfortunately..
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Re: DEAN Global Models=12z GFS,NOGAPS posted ,GFDL shortly

#6207 Postby canegrl04 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:15 pm

Still disagreements in the models. Maybe all will be on the same page before weekend's end
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#6208 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:16 pm

URNT15 KNHC 171712
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 48 20070817
170400 1524N 06313W 6976 03090 0025 +069 +069 093072 074 060 015 00
170430 1523N 06313W 6977 03086 0038 +058 +058 090074 074 057 022 00
170500 1521N 06313W 6973 03091 0026 +064 +064 102070 075 058 016 00
170530 1520N 06313W 6979 03081 0014 +071 +071 103074 075 057 055 03
170600 1518N 06313W 6973 03084 9998 +078 +078 102076 076 999 999 03
170630 1517N 06313W 6975 03075 9989 +080 +080 102077 077 999 999 03
170700 1515N 06313W 6973 03073 9979 +084 +084 099078 080 059 048 03
170730 1514N 06313W 6967 03077 9988 +070 +070 094074 076 060 055 03
170800 1512N 06313W 6983 03049 9961 +087 +087 100082 084 064 008 00
170830 1511N 06313W 6975 03047 9944 +092 +092 100086 087 065 008 00
170900 1509N 06313W 6976 03041 9945 +084 +084 102090 091 065 008 00
170930 1508N 06313W 6968 03038 9926 +088 +088 103090 092 065 009 00
171000 1506N 06313W 6969 03028 9916 +087 +087 103098 101 068 039 03
171030 1505N 06313W 6982 02996 9921 +071 +071 103101 102 071 047 03
171100 1504N 06313W 6970 02997 9906 +069 +069 100102 111 077 026 00
171130 1502N 06313W 6984 02964 9990 +072 +999 100106 109 078 034 01
171200 1501N 06313W 6960 02968 9990 +070 +999 105109 112 085 035 01
171230 1500N 06313W 6992 02911 9990 +066 +999 103109 111 100 038 01
171300 1459N 06313W 6982 02893 9808 +071 +071 101116 121 096 031 00
171330 1457N 06313W 6963 02889 9752 +089 +089 108116 124 098 036 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:12Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 48
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:04:00 15.40N 63.22W 697.6 mb 3,090 m 1002.5 mb From 93° (E) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 60 kts 15 mm/hr
17:04:30 15.38N 63.22W 697.7 mb 3,086 m 1003.8 mb From 90° (E) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 57 kts 22 mm/hr
17:05:00 15.35N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,091 m 1002.6 mb From 102° (ESE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 58 kts 16 mm/hr
17:05:30 15.33N 63.22W 697.9 mb 3,081 m 1001.4 mb From 103° (ESE) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 57 kts* 55 mm/hr*
17:06:00 15.30N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,084 m 999.8 mb From 102° (ESE) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) - -
17:06:30 15.28N 63.22W 697.5 mb 3,075 m 998.9 mb From 102° (ESE) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) - -
17:07:00 15.25N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,073 m 997.9 mb From 99° (E) at 78 kts (89.7 mph) 80 kts (~ 92.0 mph) 59 kts* 48 mm/hr*
17:07:30 15.23N 63.22W 696.7 mb 3,077 m 998.8 mb From 94° (E) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 76 kts (~ 87.4 mph) 60 kts* 55 mm/hr*
17:08:00 15.20N 63.22W 698.3 mb 3,049 m 996.1 mb From 100° (E) at 82 kts (94.3 mph) 84 kts (~ 96.6 mph) 64 kts 8 mm/hr
17:08:30 15.18N 63.22W 697.5 mb 3,047 m 994.4 mb From 100° (E) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 65 kts 8 mm/hr
17:09:00 15.15N 63.22W 697.6 mb 3,041 m 994.5 mb From 102° (ESE) at 90 kts (103.5 mph) 91 kts (~ 104.6 mph) 65 kts 8 mm/hr
17:09:30 15.13N 63.22W 696.8 mb 3,038 m 992.6 mb From 103° (ESE) at 90 kts (103.5 mph) 92 kts (~ 105.8 mph) 65 kts 9 mm/hr
17:10:00 15.10N 63.22W 696.9 mb 3,028 m 991.6 mb From 103° (ESE) at 98 kts (112.7 mph) 101 kts (~ 116.1 mph) 68 kts* 39 mm/hr*
17:10:30 15.08N 63.22W 698.2 mb 2,996 m 992.1 mb From 103° (ESE) at 101 kts (116.1 mph) 102 kts (~ 117.3 mph) 71 kts* 47 mm/hr*
17:11:00 15.07N 63.22W 697.0 mb 2,997 m 990.6 mb From 100° (E) at 102 kts (117.3 mph) 111 kts (~ 127.6 mph) 77 kts 26 mm/hr
17:11:30 15.03N 63.22W 698.4 mb 2,964 m - From 100° (E) at 106 kts (121.9 mph) 109 kts (~ 125.3 mph) 78 kts 34 mm/hr
17:12:00 15.02N 63.22W 696.0 mb 2,968 m - From 105° (ESE) at 109 kts (125.3 mph) 112 kts (~ 128.8 mph) 85 kts 35 mm/hr
17:12:30 15.00N 63.22W 699.2 mb 2,911 m - From 103° (ESE) at 109 kts (125.3 mph) 111 kts (~ 127.6 mph) 100 kts 38 mm/hr
17:13:00 14.98N 63.22W 698.2 mb 2,893 m 980.8 mb From 101° (E/ESE) at 116 kts (133.4 mph) 121 kts (~ 139.1 mph) 96 kts 31 mm/hr
17:13:30 14.95N 63.22W 696.3 mb 2,889 m 975.2 mb From 108° (ESE) at 116 kts (133.4 mph) 124 kts (~ 142.6 mph) 98 kts* 36 mm/hr*
At 17:04:00Z (first observation), the observation was 281 miles (451 km) to the SE (138°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 304 miles (490 km) to the SE (141°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .22c-63.22

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

----

Awaiting pass through center and vortex
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#6209 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:16 pm

at the HRD briefing, it as said that there are boats in the streets of Martinique
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Re:

#6210 Postby HouTXmetro » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:17 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:GFS and EURO are both not worth the paper they're printed on. There is a reaosn why I refuse to even consider their solutions when making a forecast

GFS has a tendency to do things that go against the dynamics of the atmosphere (sending Katrina through the ridge into Myrtle Beach being its worst) and the EURO is a mid latitude, medimum range model... not a TC model


Tell us how you really feel? LOL, Being that you are a pro met what are your latest thoughts on the steering?
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Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#6211 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:19 pm

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/misc.shtml

st. lucia did not fare that well it appears... very little word from Martinique, which is troubling
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#6212 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:19 pm

171300 1459N 06313W 6982 02893 9808 +071 +071 101116 121 096 031 00
171330 1457N 06313W 6963 02889 9752 +089 +089 108116 124 098 036 03

very intense storm.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6213 Postby Jimsot » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:20 pm

Image

I am on the south shore of Anguilla, this is how it looked when that skinny feeder band came threw this morning. I doubt we ever get into the meat of the storm but we are under a Tropical Storm warning.
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Re: Global Models=12z GFS,NOGAPS posted ,GFDL,UKMET shortly

#6214 Postby thunderchief » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:21 pm

GFS and Euro worthless? Two of the most modern models? 2 models widely considered superior by many others? Thats a pretty bold statement...
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Re:

#6215 Postby NCSUwpack » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:21 pm

Aquawind wrote:Dean is really looking comfy in the Caribbean. Very impressive. He will be wobbling alright but not enough for Jamaica unfortunately..


Thanks alot! All my family is in Jamaica.
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#6216 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:21 pm

Who has the GFDL text? i see model brings into Galv bay..
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6217 Postby windstorm99 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:22 pm

Image
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#6218 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:23 pm

No surprise, they got blasted with a growing and intensifying hurricane. I will be glad to hear nobody got KILLED..surely someone got hurt or will get in cleanup at least..
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#6219 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:23 pm

thunderchief..just so you know, both of those models have been tweaked recently. We still do not know if those tweaks have helped or hurt their prediction abilities.

Either way, I would still trust the GFDL, HRWF and other hurricane models much more than the GFS or EURO when it comes to a tropical cyclone any day!

(they don't call them hurricane models for nothing)
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6220 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:23 pm

At least 115 mph, perhaps as high as 130 mph based upon recon. Pass through center about to occur.
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