CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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#6221 Postby x-y-no » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:24 pm

I highly recommend NEXRAD's discussion of Dean in the analysis forum.
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#6222 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:24 pm

The GFS appears to have too weak a storm and too strong a ridge, it creates a monster ridge over the whole SE Conus stretching all the way down to the Carib. and from the Atlantic to Texas, I just don't see it.
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#6223 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:24 pm

URNT15 KNHC 171723
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 49 20070817
171400 1456N 06314W 6991 02829 9695 +118 +118 106078 088 104 031 03
171430 1454N 06314W 6981 02821 9654 +129 +129 098059 065 102 010 00
171500 1453N 06314W 6979 02803 9615 +150 +120 095045 049 064 008 00
171530 1451N 06314W 6970 02806 9597 +158 +112 102037 040 040 006 03
171600 1449N 06314W 6981 02787 9581 +168 +102 109029 032 032 005 03
171630 1448N 06315W 6973 02791 9569 +177 +091 112017 022 030 006 00
171700 1446N 06316W 6976 02789 9568 +179 +101 210004 007 020 005 03
171730 1444N 06316W 6973 02801 9567 +184 +101 261012 019 022 005 00
171800 1444N 06317W 6971 02819 9604 +169 +108 277020 029 021 006 03
171830 1445N 06319W 6975 02804 9591 +170 +108 297024 027 024 006 03
171900 1446N 06320W 6969 02806 9603 +166 +098 334019 024 024 006 03
171930 1447N 06321W 6983 02790 9578 +180 +094 017028 032 034 007 00
172000 1448N 06322W 6967 02819 9585 +178 +093 033036 039 044 006 00
172030 1450N 06323W 6980 02815 9612 +164 +109 040047 050 064 008 00
172100 1451N 06324W 6982 02821 9632 +151 +130 041058 062 097 010 00
172130 1452N 06325W 6970 02857 9657 +146 +140 042072 081 100 020 03
172200 1453N 06327W 6958 02894 9693 +125 +125 046079 081 099 021 00
172230 1454N 06328W 6983 02896 9756 +089 +089 051098 116 098 029 01
172300 1455N 06329W 6982 02929 9836 +080 +080 045094 098 083 034 00
172330 1457N 06330W 6977 02956 9859 +078 +078 048091 092 079 022 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:23Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 49
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:14:00 14.93N 63.23W 699.1 mb 2,829 m 969.5 mb From 106° (ESE) at 78 kts (89.7 mph) 88 kts (~ 101.2 mph) 104 kts* 31 mm/hr*
17:14:30 14.90N 63.23W 698.1 mb 2,821 m 965.4 mb From 98° (E) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 102 kts 10 mm/hr
17:15:00 14.88N 63.23W 697.9 mb 2,803 m 961.5 mb From 95° (E) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 64 kts 8 mm/hr
17:15:30 14.85N 63.23W 697.0 mb 2,806 m 959.7 mb From 102° (ESE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 40 kts* 6 mm/hr*
17:16:00 14.82N 63.23W 698.1 mb 2,787 m 958.1 mb From 109° (ESE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 32 kts* 5 mm/hr*
17:16:30 14.80N 63.25W 697.3 mb 2,791 m 956.9 mb From 112° (ESE) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
17:17:00 14.77N 63.27W 697.6 mb 2,789 m 956.8 mb From 210° (SSW) at 4 kts (4.6 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) 20 kts* 5 mm/hr*
17:17:30 14.73N 63.27W 697.3 mb 2,801 m 956.7 mb From 261° (W) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 22 kts 5 mm/hr
17:18:00 14.73N 63.28W 697.1 mb 2,819 m 960.4 mb From 277° (W) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 21 kts* 6 mm/hr*
17:18:30 14.75N 63.32W 697.5 mb 2,804 m 959.1 mb From 297° (WNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 24 kts* 6 mm/hr*
17:19:00 14.77N 63.33W 696.9 mb 2,806 m 960.3 mb From 334° (NNW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 24 kts* 6 mm/hr*
17:19:30 14.78N 63.35W 698.3 mb 2,790 m 957.8 mb From 17° (NNE) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 34 kts 7 mm/hr
17:20:00 14.80N 63.37W 696.7 mb 2,819 m 958.5 mb From 33° (NNE/NE) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 44 kts 6 mm/hr
17:20:30 14.83N 63.38W 698.0 mb 2,815 m 961.2 mb From 40° (NE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 64 kts 8 mm/hr
17:21:00 14.85N 63.40W 698.2 mb 2,821 m 963.2 mb From 41° (NE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 97 kts 10 mm/hr
17:21:30 14.87N 63.42W 697.0 mb 2,857 m 965.7 mb From 42° (NE) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 81 kts (~ 93.1 mph) 100 kts* 20 mm/hr*
17:22:00 14.88N 63.45W 695.8 mb 2,894 m 969.3 mb From 46° (NE) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 81 kts (~ 93.1 mph) 99 kts 21 mm/hr
17:22:30 14.90N 63.47W 698.3 mb 2,896 m 975.6 mb From 51° (NE) at 98 kts (112.7 mph) 116 kts (~ 133.4 mph) 98 kts 29 mm/hr
17:23:00 14.92N 63.48W 698.2 mb 2,929 m 983.6 mb From 45° (NE) at 94 kts (108.1 mph) 98 kts (~ 112.7 mph) 83 kts 34 mm/hr
17:23:30 14.95N 63.50W 697.7 mb 2,956 m 985.9 mb From 48° (NE) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 92 kts (~ 105.8 mph) 79 kts 22 mm/hr
At 17:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 305 miles (491 km) to the SE (142°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 293 miles (472 km) to the SE (144°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .48c-63.50

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

------

HDOB extrap pressure can be wrong, awaiting official vortex message.
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Re:

#6224 Postby Wthrman13 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:25 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:GFS and EURO are both not worth the paper they're printed on. There is a reaosn why I refuse to even consider their solutions when making a forecast

GFS has a tendency to do things that go against the dynamics of the atmosphere (sending Katrina through the ridge into Myrtle Beach being its worst) and the EURO is a mid latitude, medimum range model... not a TC model


Come now Derek, the GFS is not a bad tropical model, especially in recent years. No, it isn't always the best, and yes, it does sometimes show solutions for TC tracks that don't make a whole lot of sense (but so does does every model, every once in a while), but it's not completely worthless.

The ECMWF model may be a model designed for medium range mid-latitude weather prediction, but that doesn't suddenly make it not able to handle tropical weather. It is, after all, a global model, and the designers would have kept that in mind when developing the physics packages, etc. Regardless, the dynamical core of any global model ought to be able to handle tropical motions just as well as mid-latitude ones (the primitive equations don't change, as I'm sure you know), just maybe not on the scale of a TC. I'm not sure on the statistics of the ECMWF for TC tracks, so I won't say more.

Apologies if I'm nitpicking a little here, I just feel that you are exaggerating a bit.
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#6225 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:25 pm

I'd say 105 kt right now.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6226 Postby southerngale » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:25 pm

weatherguru18 wrote:I hate asking questions like this, but a lot of people disagree with me when I say winds over 100mph are possible 70-80 miles inland during a Cat. 4 or 5 hurricane. What do you guys think one can expect 70-80 miles inland?

Jasper is a similar distance from the coast. Here's some pictures of what Rita did in Jasper. Just scroll through the pics until you see Jasper.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=79174

Of course a Cat.4 or 5 would be worse.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6227 Postby Innotech » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:25 pm

damn Dean didnt weaken considerably like many hurricanes do at night. I kept chugging right through the night and seems to be intensifying fairly rapidly. It was at 105 2 hours ago now it may be at 115 :eek:
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Re:

#6228 Postby WmE » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'd say 105 kt right now.


I agree. And it's an impressive looking storm. This could be a real monster for Jamaica. :eek:
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6229 Postby Johnny » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:27 pm

jwayne where did he say this? not saying he didn't just wanting to read more into it.



JB mentioned this in his bigdog video this morning. He said this hurricane will have a windfield that matches Carla. He's slowly moving his landfalling point northward as time goes on.
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#6230 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:28 pm

Whatever happended to the FSU Super-Ensemble from last year?
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6231 Postby LAwxrgal » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:29 pm

I came here yesterday, I commented this was a tiny, compact little storm. He's not compact or small anymore. Dean is MEAN! He's a beast. Beautiful to watch but... definitely giving me :cold: for anyone in his path.

Anyone know how the islands fared last night?
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6232 Postby wxfollower » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:29 pm

Image

That be some heat in the GOM..
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6233 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:29 pm

Eye really starting to show now.

Image
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Re: Global Models=12z GFS,NOGAPS posted ,GFDL,UKMET shortly

#6234 Postby thunderchief » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:30 pm

All models get tweaked.


And yes, for the tropics I weight the GFDL more than any other model(i'll leave the HWRF out of this for now since it is so new, but im inclinded to think thats going to be same as the GFDL, above all others)...


but the GFS is up there. No, I dont like the euros lack of timliness and its limitted data released to the public, but I'm not going to just throw it out.
Last edited by thunderchief on Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#6235 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:30 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:GFS and EURO are both not worth the paper they're printed on. There is a reaosn why I refuse to even consider their solutions when making a forecast

GFS has a tendency to do things that go against the dynamics of the atmosphere (sending Katrina through the ridge into Myrtle Beach being its worst) and the EURO is a mid latitude, medimum range model... not a TC model


Come now Derek, the GFS is not a bad tropical model, especially in recent years. No, it isn't always the best, and yes, it does sometimes show solutions for TC tracks that don't make a whole lot of sense (but so does does every model, every once in a while), but it's not completely worthless.

The ECMWF model may be a model designed for medium range mid-latitude weather prediction, but that doesn't suddenly make it not able to handle tropical weather. It is, after all, a global model, and the designers would have kept that in mind when developing the physics packages, etc. Regardless, the dynamical core of any global model ought to be able to handle tropical motions just as well as mid-latitude ones (the primitive equations don't change, as I'm sure you know), just maybe not on the scale of a TC. I'm not sure on the statistics of the ECMWF for TC tracks, so I won't say more.

Apologies if I'm nitpicking a little here, I just feel that you are exaggerating a bit.

The ECMWF outperformed every model WRT track last year. The GFDL was the second best.
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#6236 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:30 pm

124KT at 700mb... equates to about 110 at the surface
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis and Imager

#6237 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:31 pm

WOW!!! ASTRONOMICALLY IMPRESSIVE!!!

Image

THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ATLANTIC SYSTEM SINCE WILMA!!!
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Re: Global Models=12z GFS,NOGAPS posted ,GFDL,UKMET shortly

#6238 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:32 pm

For those who are doubting the ECMWF's skill level at predicting tropical cyclone movements, especially at days 3-5, perhaps you need to look at this thread I just started, based on a NHC study of 2006 model verifications, showing the ECMWF to be the most accurate by a significant margin during days 3-5:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97166&p=1601264#p1601264

Comments welcomed.
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Re: Re:

#6239 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:32 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Wthrman13 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:GFS and EURO are both not worth the paper they're printed on. There is a reaosn why I refuse to even consider their solutions when making a forecast

GFS has a tendency to do things that go against the dynamics of the atmosphere (sending Katrina through the ridge into Myrtle Beach being its worst) and the EURO is a mid latitude, medimum range model... not a TC model


Come now Derek, the GFS is not a bad tropical model, especially in recent years. No, it isn't always the best, and yes, it does sometimes show solutions for TC tracks that don't make a whole lot of sense (but so does does every model, every once in a while), but it's not completely worthless.

The ECMWF model may be a model designed for medium range mid-latitude weather prediction, but that doesn't suddenly make it not able to handle tropical weather. It is, after all, a global model, and the designers would have kept that in mind when developing the physics packages, etc. Regardless, the dynamical core of any global model ought to be able to handle tropical motions just as well as mid-latitude ones (the primitive equations don't change, as I'm sure you know), just maybe not on the scale of a TC. I'm not sure on the statistics of the ECMWF for TC tracks, so I won't say more.

Apologies if I'm nitpicking a little here, I just feel that you are exaggerating a bit.

The ECMWF outperformed every model WRT track last year. The GFDL was the second best.
well it sure hasn't had a very good start this year. It messed up with Erin (too far south) and it has already messed up with Dean (trying to show him hitting Florida instead of the Caribbean when he was still in the central Atlantic). May be it will get it right this time, but I am really not counting on it.
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Re: Re:

#6240 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 17, 2007 12:32 pm

NCSUwpack wrote:
Aquawind wrote:Dean is really looking comfy in the Caribbean. Very impressive. He will be wobbling alright but not enough for Jamaica unfortunately..


Thanks alot! All my family is in Jamaica.


Sorry, I have enjoyed the place very much myself.. But yeah it's not good for those on the island. Either way it is going to be a very serious hurricane even if they miss the eye wall. Hopefully the speed of Dean will offset the clearly growing Dean and limit the flooding in the valleys and coastline. We all hope they are well informed and prepared..
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