Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

ESE? Where is this thing? The Yucatan convection looks awesome in the IR loop, is it influencing the TD at all?

[CrazyC83]

Sooner or later, it was prone to happening!!!

Wow what a TD by the ACC Team....the PAC-10 sure needs to pull this one off or else some might think the Pac-10 may not have more than 1 good team in their league...
very wrong thread and forum..my bad!!!

Also remember that the EPAC usually peaks earlier than the Atlantic...peak season there is mid to late-August.

[Ptarmigan]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

ESE? Where is this thing? The Yucatan convection looks awesome in the IR loop, is it influencing the TD at all?

I wonder about that blob over Yucatan too.

[bigGbear]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

ESE? Where is this thing? The Yucatan convection looks awesome in the IR loop, is it influencing the TD at all?

I wonder about that blob over Yucatan too.

Can someone comment on what is going on with the low - very little convection.
All the energy seems to have been stolen by the rotation to the northwest and
the blob over the Yucatan?

[Kennethb]

It appears that TD 13 may also be in competition for energy with the disturbance over the Florida straits too.

[Sanibel]

Looks weak. I thought the shear was supposed to drop and it would strengthen soon after?

Although Derek is correct that formed systems aren't affected by minima's, I think this one is currently under one and should rebound.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't expect any strengthing intill tomarrow night. Maybe 11pm tomarrow it may become a tropical storm...After that things could become more interesting.

[wxmann_91]

Looks weak. I thought the shear was supposed to drop and it would strengthen soon after?

Although Derek is correct that formed systems aren't affected by minima's, I think this one is currently under one and should rebound.

This isn't a formed system. So yes, it would be affected by diurnal cycles, just like Karen was today.

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
0300 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 95.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.3N 95.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.1N 95.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 95.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 95.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

038
WTNT33 KNHC 260245
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

...DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...21.7 N...95.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL
IMAGERY...BUT AN SSMI MICROWAVE PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z DEPICTED THE
SMALL CENTER NICELY AND INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/4.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SOME OF THE MODELS ROTATE THE DEPRESSION
WITHIN A BROADER LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
UNTIL MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. GIVEN THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN MAY TAKE A COUPLE DAYS TO DEVELOP...A SHORT-TERM LOOPING
SCENARIO MIGHT BE A REASONABLE ONE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING TODAY...AND IS PRESENTLY AT A
MINIMUM. THERE IS STILL SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
NEAR TAMPICO. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BE REPLACED BY AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW
THE SYSTEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THAT OCCURS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
GFDL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IS
NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LESS QUICKLY
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 21.7N 95.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 25 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 21.3N 95.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 21.1N 95.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 20.9N 95.6W 40 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 20.5N 96.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 20.0N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[MiamiensisWx]

Do we have more communication issues? I have not seen any obs from the 10:30 p.m. EDT mission.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260338
AF305 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 04 20070926
024900 2934N 08942W 4285 07095 0400 -139 -381 171006 007 999 999 03
024930 2933N 08944W 4247 07162 0404 -143 -247 145006 006 999 999 03
025000 2931N 08945W 4201 07244 0408 -149 -239 155006 006 999 999 03
025030 2930N 08947W 4165 07308 0411 -151 -259 147007 008 999 999 03
025100 2928N 08948W 4130 07373 0415 -153 -257 155006 007 999 999 03
025130 2927N 08950W 4086 07453 0419 -155 -243 189005 006 999 999 03
025200 2925N 08951W 4053 07514 0423 -163 -239 203004 004 999 999 03
025230 2924N 08953W 4021 07574 0427 -169 -237 165002 004 999 999 03
025300 2922N 08955W 3991 07632 0431 -179 -217 101001 002 999 999 03
025330 2920N 08956W 3962 07685 0433 -183 -205 013002 003 999 999 03
025400 2919N 08958W 3930 07748 0438 -181 -201 319004 005 999 999 03
025430 2917N 08959W 3923 07763 0441 -185 -199 344004 005 999 999 03
025500 2916N 09001W 3924 07761 0441 -179 -197 339007 007 999 999 03
025530 2914N 09003W 3924 07761 0442 -177 -177 335009 010 999 999 05
025600 2912N 09005W 3924 07762 0443 -179 -179 327010 010 999 999 05
025630 2910N 09006W 3925 07763 0445 -177 -177 321009 010 999 999 05
025700 2909N 09008W 3927 07762 0447 -175 -175 319010 010 999 999 05
025730 2907N 09010W 3927 07763 0448 -177 -177 323010 010 999 999 05
025800 2905N 09012W 3927 07761 0447 -175 -219 326012 013 999 999 03
025830 2903N 09014W 3928 07763 0450 -175 -223 322015 016 999 999 03
$$

New mission underway. Awaiting more recent data - communications issues it appears.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260347
AF305 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 05 20070926
025900 2901N 09016W 3928 07763 0450 -173 -221 314014 015 999 999 03
025930 2859N 09017W 3927 07527 0213 -177 -223 313013 014 999 999 03
030000 2857N 09019W 3927 07592 0278 -175 -219 312010 012 999 999 03
030030 2855N 09021W 3928 07762 0449 -175 -219 301013 014 999 999 03
030100 2853N 09023W 3927 07763 0449 -175 -237 304015 016 999 999 03
030130 2851N 09025W 3928 07763 0450 -175 -231 313014 015 999 999 03
030200 2849N 09027W 3928 07762 0449 -177 -199 329015 018 999 999 03
030230 2847N 09028W 3927 07764 0449 -181 -207 324020 020 999 999 03
030300 2845N 09030W 3928 07761 0448 -177 -197 339015 016 999 999 03
030330 2843N 09032W 3928 07761 0448 -175 -197 340012 014 999 999 03
030400 2841N 09034W 3928 07761 0448 -175 -201 334011 012 999 999 03
030430 2839N 09036W 3927 07763 0449 -175 -185 332011 011 999 999 03
030500 2837N 09038W 3927 07761 0447 -175 -197 338009 011 999 999 03
030530 2835N 09039W 3928 07754 0441 -175 -193 340010 010 999 999 03
030600 2833N 09041W 3928 07754 0441 -177 -195 340009 010 999 999 03
030630 2831N 09043W 3928 07752 0439 -175 -203 350007 007 999 999 03
030700 2829N 09045W 3928 07751 0438 -175 -193 350008 008 999 999 03
030730 2827N 09047W 3928 07753 0440 -175 -181 359004 007 999 999 03
030800 2825N 09049W 3928 07752 0439 -175 -195 015002 005 999 999 03
030830 2823N 09050W 3928 07751 0438 -179 -195 328004 005 999 999 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260349
AF305 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 06 20070926
030900 2822N 09052W 3928 07751 0438 -181 -187 352006 006 999 999 03
030930 2820N 09054W 3928 07753 0440 -181 -193 343006 007 999 999 03
031000 2818N 09056W 3928 07753 0440 -177 -199 350005 006 999 999 03
031030 2816N 09058W 3930 07750 0440 -175 -199 003004 004 999 999 03
031100 2813N 09100W 3928 07754 0441 -181 -195 344004 005 999 999 03
031130 2812N 09101W 3928 07754 0441 -179 -199 333006 007 999 999 03
031200 2810N 09103W 3928 07751 0439 -177 -201 331007 008 999 999 03
031230 2808N 09105W 3928 07752 0440 -177 -193 303010 011 999 999 03
031300 2806N 09107W 3928 07754 0441 -175 -197 296012 012 999 999 03
031330 2804N 09109W 3927 07754 0440 -175 -193 302011 012 999 999 03
031400 2802N 09111W 3928 07753 0440 -177 -193 314009 010 999 999 03
031430 2800N 09112W 3928 07755 0442 -177 -195 318011 011 999 999 03
031500 2758N 09114W 3928 07755 0442 -175 -195 318010 011 999 999 03
031530 2756N 09116W 3928 07723 0411 -175 -195 310011 011 999 999 03
031600 2754N 09117W 3928 07446 0133 -175 -195 304011 011 999 999 03
031630 2752N 09119W 3928 07753 0440 -181 -181 306010 010 999 999 03
031700 2750N 09121W 3927 07754 0440 -175 -201 304009 010 999 999 03
031730 2748N 09123W 3928 07753 0441 -175 -193 314008 008 999 999 03
031800 2746N 09125W 3928 07756 0444 -175 -199 313007 007 999 999 33
031830 2744N 09126W 3928 07748 0435 -171 -209 321008 009 999 999 33
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260353
AF305 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 07 20070926
031900 2742N 09128W 3928 07745 0432 -173 -197 312009 010 999 999 03
031930 2740N 09130W 3928 07754 0441 -173 -197 315010 011 999 999 03
032000 2738N 09132W 3928 07752 0440 -173 -189 314012 012 999 999 03
032030 2737N 09133W 3928 07753 0440 -171 -181 316008 011 999 999 03
032100 2735N 09135W 3928 07753 0440 -173 -173 037002 003 999 999 03
032130 2733N 09137W 3928 07762 0450 -173 -183 324002 005 999 999 03
032200 2731N 09139W 3928 07766 0454 -175 -191 324008 009 999 999 03
032230 2729N 09141W 3927 07765 0451 -179 -185 346010 011 999 999 13
032300 2727N 09142W 3929 07763 0452 -181 -185 354010 012 999 999 03
032330 2725N 09144W 3928 07766 0453 -177 -177 009011 013 999 999 03
032400 2723N 09146W 3929 07758 0447 -171 -171 343005 007 999 999 03
032430 2721N 09148W 3927 07754 0439 -171 -171 353005 006 999 999 03
032500 2719N 09150W 3927 07754 0440 -171 -207 347010 011 999 999 03
032530 2717N 09151W 3928 07753 0441 -167 -229 352011 011 999 999 03
032600 2715N 09153W 3928 07752 0440 -167 -211 351011 012 999 999 03
032630 2713N 09155W 3930 07748 0439 -169 -201 339008 009 999 999 03
032700 2711N 09157W 3928 07753 0440 -167 -205 354007 009 999 999 03
032730 2709N 09159W 3928 07752 0440 -171 -227 348011 012 999 999 03
032800 2707N 09200W 3929 07751 0440 -169 -297 338011 012 999 999 03
032830 2705N 09202W 3928 07752 0440 -169 -245 348010 010 999 999 03
$$

More quickly coming in.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not looking to good for td13 right now. All the convection is gone, but the LLC is half way defined still.

[CrazyC83]

Two sets missed, now up to date:

URNT15 KNHC 260356
AF305 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 10 20070926
034900 2541N 09313W 3929 07749 0438 -171 -205 007012 012 999 999 03
034930 2539N 09315W 3928 07750 0438 -169 -213 007014 014 999 999 03
035000 2537N 09317W 3928 07749 0436 -167 -215 005012 012 999 999 03
035030 2535N 09318W 3930 07746 0436 -167 -205 022012 013 999 999 03
035100 2533N 09320W 3928 07749 0437 -165 -207 014010 011 999 999 03
035130 2531N 09322W 3928 07749 0437 -167 -213 016011 012 999 999 03
035200 2529N 09324W 3929 07749 0438 -165 -235 017011 011 999 999 03
035230 2527N 09326W 3928 07751 0439 -169 -217 013011 012 999 999 03
035300 2526N 09328W 3928 07752 0440 -171 -205 013012 012 999 999 03
035330 2524N 09330W 3929 07750 0439 -171 -195 020011 012 999 999 03
035400 2522N 09332W 3928 07750 0438 -171 -207 028012 012 999 999 03
035430 2520N 09334W 3930 07750 0440 -171 -253 012012 012 999 999 03
035500 2518N 09336W 3928 07751 0439 -171 -243 012012 012 999 999 03
035530 2516N 09338W 3929 07748 0437 -171 -219 012012 012 999 999 03
035600 2514N 09340W 3929 07748 0437 -171 -223 015011 012 999 999 03
035630 2512N 09342W 3929 07746 0435 -169 -223 023011 012 999 999 03
035700 2510N 09343W 3929 07747 0436 -171 -213 026013 013 999 999 03
035730 2508N 09345W 3928 07748 0436 -167 -253 014013 013 999 999 03
035800 2506N 09347W 3929 07747 0436 -165 -261 008014 014 999 999 03
035830 2503N 09349W 3929 07747 0436 -165 -269 002014 014 999 999 03
$$

[Derek Ortt]

TD 13 is fine

I take it that everyone forgets that Bret 1999 lost all of its convection when it was a TD as well

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TD 13 is fine

I take it that everyone forgets that Bret 1999 lost all of its convection when it was a TD as well

Yeah I remember it with Bret, but its more or less a wait in see.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260406
AF305 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 11 20070926
035900 2501N 09350W 3928 07748 0436 -165 -193 015014 016 999 999 03
035930 2459N 09352W 3927 07747 0433 -165 -193 031017 018 999 999 03
040000 2457N 09353W 3927 07750 0435 -171 -187 037015 017 999 999 03
040030 2454N 09353W 3929 07745 0434 -171 -185 032015 016 999 999 03
040100 2452N 09352W 3928 07746 0434 -169 -185 030014 016 999 999 03
040130 2449N 09351W 3928 07744 0432 -165 -189 029013 013 999 999 03
040200 2447N 09351W 3930 07740 0431 -165 -187 034011 012 999 999 03
040230 2444N 09350W 3928 07742 0429 -165 -191 012011 012 999 999 03
040300 2442N 09350W 3930 07740 0430 -163 -195 003010 010 999 999 03
040330 2439N 09349W 3928 07743 0430 -165 -193 007010 011 999 999 03
040400 2437N 09349W 3929 07743 0432 -165 -191 014009 010 999 999 03
040430 2434N 09348W 3929 07743 0432 -165 -189 015009 009 999 999 03
040500 2431N 09347W 3928 07743 0431 -165 -181 016011 012 999 999 03
040530 2429N 09347W 3929 07742 0431 -165 -177 015010 012 999 999 03
040600 2426N 09346W 3929 07741 0430 -163 -187 021009 010 999 999 03
040630 2424N 09346W 3929 07740 0429 -165 -183 028010 010 999 999 03
040700 2421N 09345W 3937 07724 0428 -161 -183 036010 011 999 999 03
040730 2419N 09345W 3951 07698 0426 -159 -185 037011 012 999 999 03
040800 2416N 09344W 3948 07699 0422 -157 -191 042011 012 999 999 03
040830 2414N 09343W 3916 07762 0428 -163 -195 037012 012 999 999 03
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 260416
AF305 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 12 20070926
040900 2411N 09343W 3925 07749 0431 -161 -197 035013 013 999 999 03
040930 2409N 09342W 3927 07744 0430 -161 -195 033013 014 999 999 03
041000 2406N 09342W 3927 07744 0430 -161 -199 035013 013 999 999 03
041030 2404N 09341W 3933 07732 0428 -157 -193 043013 013 999 999 03
041100 2401N 09341W 3927 07738 0423 -161 -187 040014 014 999 999 03
041130 2359N 09340W 3923 07741 0420 -165 -183 045014 014 999 999 03
041200 2357N 09340W 3927 07735 0421 -163 -185 051013 014 999 999 03
041230 2355N 09339W 3923 07744 0422 -165 -185 060013 014 999 999 03
041300 2353N 09339W 3924 07740 0421 -165 -187 063014 014 999 999 03
041330 2351N 09338W 3924 07740 0421 -165 -187 063013 014 999 999 03
041400 2348N 09338W 3924 07740 0421 -165 -187 058013 013 999 999 03
041430 2346N 09337W 3924 07739 0420 -161 -189 055013 013 999 999 03
041500 2344N 09337W 3924 07739 0420 -161 -189 056013 014 999 999 03
041530 2342N 09337W 3924 07738 0419 -161 -189 066013 014 999 999 03
041600 2340N 09336W 3924 07736 0417 -161 -193 067014 014 999 999 03
041630 2338N 09336W 3924 07734 0415 -161 -193 058013 013 999 999 03
041700 2336N 09335W 3927 07730 0416 -159 -189 054013 013 999 999 03
041730 2334N 09335W 3925 07733 0415 -159 -193 049012 013 999 999 03
041800 2332N 09334W 3924 07735 0415 -161 -191 047011 011 999 999 03
041830 2330N 09334W 3924 07733 0413 -159 -193 044009 009 999 999 03
$$