OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

Given Olga is actually strengthening over land...snip

An incorrect assumption. Olga was likely stronger earlier today. There were 3 ships reporting between 50-55kt winds between the SE Bahamas and the DR from late morning through mid afternoon. Those ships are now reporting lower winds. It's not strengthening over land - it was stronger earlier. And if you'd look at the upper-level winds forecast for later this week you'd see a westerly jet core pushing across Florida.

Ok, off to work on the 9pm advisory.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

heavy flooding rain in hispanoila...is there anything that could
help hispanoila by forcing olga away?

[wxman57]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_17.gif

Also, the XTRP, which is the dotted model on there which shows the speed and direction that Olga is moving in, is now showing a clear WNW movement.

Jeremy,

I'd suggest reading up on the models here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

You'll find that some models should be ignored - like the "CLIPER" (climatology/persistence) which turns Olga north. All the dynamic models keep Olga south of Cuba where it'll run into some very strong shear.

[Evil Jeremy]

wxman, I am just saying that I will believe there is shear when I see it.

[wxman57]

01Z surface analysis indicates the center is well inland over the DR near 18.9N/70W, as seen here. Winds have likely decreased below 60 mph now.

[dtrain44]

Jeremy, don't feel bad: we all got fooled by the XTRP once

[wxman57]

wxman, I am just saying that I will believe there is shear when I see it.

Fair enough. I'd just like to see the storm blown apart ASAP. I'm working on 5 straight shifts now (day, swing, night, day, swing) and I'll be working the night shift tonight. Just a 1-man hurricane team for Olga - me. Someone must issue advisories every 6 hours.

[wxman57]

Jeremy, don't feel bad: we all got fooled by the XTRP once

In fairness, he wasn't suggesting the XTRP was a model, just that it was indicating current movement north of west.

[Blown Away]

I just don't understand why the NHC says W when it's obvious WNW based on plotting the Lat/Longs?

[wxman57]

I just don't understand why the NHC says W when it's obvious WNW based on plotting the Lat/Longs?

Because "West" includes any angle from 12.5 degrees south of 270 degrees to 12.5 degrees north of 270 (282.5). From its last position to the current location (18.8N/69.5W to 18.9N/70W) I measure a movement toward 279-280 degrees. That's west.

[dtrain44]

Wxman57, let me just say thanks on behalf of the board: it's great to have such an informed presence on the board. I learn more with every storm.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

yes thanks wxman57 for your information and expertise

Olga is not weakening for some reason even though
it is over land. Maybe a center relocation?

[Squarethecircle]

I highly doubt this storm is over land. The center may have relocated, whatever, but the storm is not over land. Actually, it may be about a few miles inland, but I'm almost certain it's impossible the rotation can be so far away from the low when there's nothing ripping them apart.

[Blown Away]

I just don't understand why the NHC says W when it's obvious WNW based on plotting the Lat/Longs?

Because "West" includes any angle from 12.5 degrees south of 270 degrees to 12.5 degrees north of 270 (282.5). From its last position to the current location (18.8N/69.5W to 18.9N/70W) I measure a movement toward 279-280 degrees. That's west.

Now it makes sense, thanks. Since 4pm .4N/1W that is WNW.

[artist]

is recon scheduled to go back out?

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 120233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1100 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...OLGA TRAVERSING HISPANIOLA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
70.6 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO
IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF A WEAKER OLGA SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THEN OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA
LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OLGA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N...70.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

039
WTNT42 KNHC 120233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION BECAME MORE
TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE
CENTER. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATED
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. PEAK WINDS
MEASURED BY THE PLANE REACHED 55 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND 54
KNOTS BY SFMR. THE PROXIMITY OF THE WINDS TO THE CENTER AND THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED THAT OLGA MADE THE TRANSITION
TO A TROPICAL STORM. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT MEASURE DATA
FROM OLGA'S CENTER BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAD ALREADY MOVED INLAND
PRIOR TO A POSSIBLE PENETRATION.

INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS BUT MOST LIKELY...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON IF IT HAS NOT STARTED ALREADY DUE
TO OLGA'S INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN
LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANES RARELY SURVIVE IT.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS
INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...AND OLGA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL DISSIPATION. IT
WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR OLGA TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF
LAND AND EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR
ALONG ITS PATH. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF KEEP OLGA AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA
WHICH IS ALREADY WET FROM NOEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 19.0N 70.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 19.5N 76.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 78.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 80.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 120233
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION BECAME MORE
TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE
CENTER. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATED
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. PEAK WINDS
MEASURED BY THE PLANE REACHED 55 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND 54
KNOTS BY SFMR. THE PROXIMITY OF THE WINDS TO THE CENTER AND THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED THAT OLGA MADE THE TRANSITION
TO A TROPICAL STORM. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT MEASURE DATA
FROM OLGA'S CENTER BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAD ALREADY MOVED INLAND
PRIOR TO A POSSIBLE PENETRATION.

INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS BUT MOST LIKELY...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON IF IT HAS NOT STARTED ALREADY DUE
TO OLGA'S INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN
LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANES RARELY SURVIVE IT.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS
INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...AND OLGA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL DISSIPATION. IT
WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR OLGA TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF
LAND AND EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR
ALONG ITS PATH. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF KEEP OLGA AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA
WHICH IS ALREADY WET FROM NOEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 19.0N 70.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 19.5N 76.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 78.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 80.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

From 18.8N/69.5W to 19N/70.6W (00Z to 03Z position) I measure a heading of 280 degrees (west) and a distance traveled of 61 nautical miles. That's 20 kts. I suspect the center isn't moving that quickly, though.

[cycloneye]

INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS BUT MOST LIKELY...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON IF IT HAS NOT STARTED ALREADY DUE
TO OLGA'S INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN
LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANES RARELY SURVIVE IT.


IT
WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR OLGA TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF
LAND AND EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR
ALONG ITS PATH. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE
GFDL AND HWRF KEEP OLGA AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FIVE DAYS.

From the 10 PM EST Discussion.