CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

a Hurricane Warning is needed for the DR south coast west of 70W since this is slightly north of the forecast track

[PTrackerLA]

The Euro and GFS have been so consistent with a double Mexico hit, I just don't see how the GFDL could be so far off. Today things have become even MORE uncertain! ARRGGH!

[Stormcenter]

Whoa wasn't expecting the GFDL to move eastward like that. That track would asolutely obliterate Lafayette. Pro mets any thoughts on the GFDL track? Please tell me you don't think it can verify! Looks like I better start thinking about preparing regardless.

I think we could be in trouble here.

I think LA. will be okay. Just my 2 cents opinion.

[Thunder44]

The last eye dropsonde was 959MB. When the vortex message came out, they used 966MB. The 1:45PM advisory went with 961MB. I just don't know where the number came from.

I posted the drosponde in the recon obs thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97108&start=140

[Bailey1777]

hsvwx at what point should we be watching to see if Dean is influenced.

[Opal storm]

I thought we'd have some sort of consistency by now with recon out there, but it's still spread out from central MX to central LA. Like I said before, it should be more narrowed down by the end of this weekend.

[ronjon]

While the Euro has been one of the further south solutions, it definitely looks further north in this run hitting the Yucatan, in line closer with the GFS. So will the Euro go north in future runs as well? Not sure quite yet. I'm not sure if I buy a direct western route after moving wnw for such a long time. It even almost looks like it goes wsw for sometime

Yes I noticed that the 12Z GFDL and now Euro take the storm more W-NW in the short term (12 to 72 hrs) than previous runs. Both of these runs have Dean dangerously close to the south coasts of Hispanola and Cuba. I'm wondering now if the ridge may be a little weaker (at least in the short term).

[Beam]

:eek: Holy Crap!!

It's a real storm now.

Anyway, I agree with Derek, grim as his predictions are. I'd hate to be in Jamaica right now.

[Ivanhater]

The big key is around Jamaica...some models move it due west after Jamaica but the GFDL continues to feel a weakness in the ridge....as of now I dont see this moving due west right after Jamaica...but we will see

[Aric Dunn]

THIS BUOY APPEARS IT WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

it s just slightly WNW of dean .. and on radar is moving right for..

so later tonight it should pass over it.. so we will get some good reports before
we lose the buoy(probably)

[Thunder44]

While the Euro has been one of the further south solutions, it definitely looks further north in this run hitting the Yucatan, in line closer with the GFS. So will the Euro go north in future runs as well? Not sure quite yet. I'm not sure if I buy a direct western route after moving wnw for such a long time. It even almost looks like it goes wsw for sometime

Yes I noticed that the 12Z GFDL and now Euro take the storm more W-NW in the short term (12 to 72 hrs) than previous runs. Both of these runs have Dean dangerously close to the south coasts of Hispanola and Cuba. I'm wondering now if the ridge may be a little weaker (at least in the short term).

I was watching Chad Myers on CNN a little while ago. He showed the eye was going little north of the NHC track. If that is the case not only does that put Hispanola and Cuba bigger risk, but that put the the Gulf coast at more risk then many models are showing. Even though the GFDL, is presently the outlier now, and has a right of track bias it should not be so quickly dismissed.

[Agua]

:eek: Holy Crap!!

You forgot the little tm symbol.

[windstorm99]

Continues to look great on visible imagery...

[Blown Away]

Dean very close to 15N, he was not supposed to be there until late tonight. More WNW, IMO.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[hsvwx]

hsvwx at what point should we be watching to see if Dean is influenced.

Bailey,

I am not exactly sure at what distances storms begin to feel weaknesses with ridges as hurricanes is not my expertise in weather. Obviously the models are battling over how fast this weakness currently located nearly Florida moves westward and weakens allowing the ridge to build into the Gulf of Mexico. A strong hurricane with excellent outflow (certainly seen here in the case of Dean) may lend to a strengthening in the ridge to the north (due to mass continuity). It's the so called "ridge pumping". Is this what the models are seeing? I don't know. Currently they have the system moving northwest as a weaker cyclone and move it westward as it passes Jamaica as it is strengthening (and perhaps helping the ridge build westward).

Obviously if the upper level disturbance near Florida does not weaken and move westward as fast, the effects on Dean would be a continued wnw movement of what will be occurring in the short term.

[whereverwx]

Here's the latest--enhanced--visible.

[Stormcenter]

While the Euro has been one of the further south solutions, it definitely looks further north in this run hitting the Yucatan, in line closer with the GFS. So will the Euro go north in future runs as well? Not sure quite yet. I'm not sure if I buy a direct western route after moving wnw for such a long time. It even almost looks like it goes wsw for sometime

Yes I noticed that the 12Z GFDL and now Euro take the storm more W-NW in the short term (12 to 72 hrs) than previous runs. Both of these runs have Dean dangerously close to the south coasts of Hispanola and Cuba. I'm wondering now if the ridge may be a little weaker (at least in the short term).

I was watching Chad Myers on CNN a little while ago. He showed the eye was going little north of the NHC track. If that is the case not only does that put Hispanola and Cuba bigger risk, but that put the the Gulf coast at more risk then many models are showing. Even though the GFDL, is presently the outlier now, and has a right of track bias it should not be so quickly dismissed.

I would not dismiss it but I also would take what it is saying right now with a grain of salt.
It's way too early to take any one model seriously this far out.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The big key is around Jamaica...some models move it due west after Jamaica but the GFDL continues to feel a weakness in the ridge....as of now I dont see this moving due west right after Jamaica...but we will see

I agree. I just do not see a powerful hurricane turning due west (or even WSW as the Euro shows) after reaching Jamaica. That just doesn't sound believable to me.

[tolakram]

Question.

in this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

and in the link just posted you can see a blow off of convection, looks almost like an outflow boundry, heading NE. What exactly is that and what might cause it to happen?

[HouTXmetro]

I was thinking the same thing, the Southern tracks may be pumping the Ridge from a powerful Dean. On the other hand you would think a strong Cane would attempt to sniff out the weakness created by the ULL.