Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

70 MPH winds

Yep, just as I thought. I think we will have Hurricane Karen this afternoon.

[Sanibel]

Consolidated. Weakness issues gone.

Good system to watch go out to sea.

This should be the first system to go strong north of the islands (breaking the 2007 curse). (Until the shear gets it)

[caneseddy]

Jeff Masters, in his blog, states that the trough that is going to lift Karen north probably won't be strong enough to recurve it out to sea

As to long-range, he mentions both the UKMET, which turns Karen west under a ridge and the GFS, which stalls Karen north of the islands for 2-4 days until the next trough takes it out to sea, but it is too soon to speculate which scenario will verify, according to him

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Lowpressure]

This storm is going to continue to be difficult to pin down not only on path but strength. 98L may be a bigger player than any model picked up on in regards to path.

[Thunder44]

Jeff Masters, in his blog, states that the trough that is going to lift Karen north probably won't be strong enough to recurve it out to sea

As to long-range, he mentions both the UKMET, which turns Karen west under a ridge and the GFS, which stalls Karen north of the islands for 2-4 days until the next trough takes it out to sea, but it is too soon to speculate which scenario will verify, according to him

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

He needs to update his blog on Karen reaching Hurricane strength as it looks like will probably do so in the next 12 hours.

[cycloneye]

No eye yet.

[Thunder44]

Karen looks more ragged on visible imagery than earlier today. Not sure what that means for short-term intensity. There are also multiple outlfow boundaries coming out from the SW Quad.

[Frank2]

Actually, it seems like it won't be a hurricane anytime today...

[cycloneye]

Actually, it seems like it won't be a hurricane anytime today...

Agree.Outflow boundaries are shooting out in the western side.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Closed eyewall?

[Thunder44]

Actually, it seems like it won't be a hurricane anytime today...

Agree.Outflow boundaries are shooting out in the western side.

Don't write it off so quickly, this detoriation in appearance may only be temporary.

[chris_fit]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/12L.KAREN/amsub/89/1degreeticks/thumb/Latest.html

Closed eyewall?

That image does give an inkling of that...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Guess who says Peekaboo at the in this loop..Humm..Euro anyone? nah..Just the GFS..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[JTD]

Guess who says Peekaboo at the in this loop..Humm..Euro anyone? nah..Just the GFS..

Destruction5,

My version of windows won't let me play those Java loops What does it show? Has the GFS jumped off the fish bandwagon?

[MiamiensisWx]

This is NOT an official forecast.

It's clearly experiencing some problems with NW shear, thus the presence of outflow boundaries can be seen in the W quadrant. There is one caveat: the shear has largely aided Karen's UL divergence regime over the past few days, so it will be interesting to observe its interaction with the trough. Note the good low-level inflow in the SE and N quadrants. This system has been elongated, and it gradually intensified through the past ~24 hours. I think Karen could reach hurricane status tonight, which is followed by a possible weakening trend if the trough remains nearly stationary. We could see a Karl '04 redux in terms of path and intensity fluctuations, although it will be further W (similar to Irene '05/Fabian '03) and I doubt Karen will reach Karl's Category 4 intensity.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Some plausible analogs for Karen:

1) Karl '04 (http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/KARL/track.gif)
2) Fabian '03 (http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2003/FABIAN/track.gif)
3) Irene '05 (http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/IRENE/track.gif)

The progged 500 mbar pattern suggests we could observe a turn toward the W or WNW near the Leeward Islands, which is followed by a slow N movement ahead of the next trough. In a nutshell, I think Karen could briefly pose a mild threatening glare toward the United States, but it will probably eventually recurve out to sea or threaten Bermuda. The 500 mbar ridge could rebuild after the current trough moves away from the area, so Karen may graze the western flank of the TPC's cone. A temporary stall N of the islands seems quite possible until another s/w erodes the ridge, thus enabling Karen's final N movement toward Bermuda or the fish. It should be noted that nothing is set in stone.

[chris_fit]

Guess who says Peekaboo at the in this loop..Humm..Euro anyone? nah..Just the GFS..

Destruction5,

My version of windows won't let me play those Java loops What does it show? Has the GFS jumped off the fish bandwagon?

has it moving more west at the end of the run, actually due west if not WWSW. The strong weakness kind of vanishes and is replaced by a strong ridge to the north of Karen.

[Emmett_Brown]

has it moving more west at the end of the run, actually due west if not WWSW. The strong weakness kind of vanishes and is replaced by a strong ridge to the north of Karen.

Hmmm... how close to any land area does it come toward the end of the run... does it still go fishing at the end?

[gatorcane]

ah yes...likelyhood of Karen being a fish has decreased especially if the GFS is now also joining the Euro in bending it W and even WSW

[chris_fit]

has it moving more west at the end of the run, actually due west if not WWSW. The strong weakness kind of vanishes and is replaced by a strong ridge to the north of Karen.

Hmmm... how close to any land area does it come toward the end of the run... does it still go fishing at the end?

If I were to EXTAP the movement at the end, it would be heading towards SFLA and/or Bahamas.

[fci]

Good analysis Daniel!
I agree 100% with the track projection that you have outlined.
A threat to the US only briefly; if at all and then off to fishy land hopefully missing Bermuda on the way.