CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[whereverwx]

Cool. Thanks, chad! Here's the latest full image. Definitely very impressive.

[Frank P]

>>Handcock County

uh huh huh /sorry



Btw Frank, allegedly Beast (Bryan) had a Jim Cantori sighting over your way per George. I haven't verified it yet, but that's the word on the streets.

Steve

Jim Cantore is my pal... I invited him to ride out the next storm at my house in Biloxi.... not sure if he is going to bite on that... hehe

I know this, he shows up in your town as Dean approaches and you can turn out the lights cause the partys over... expect the WOW... worst of the worst...

GFDL has me puzzled... love the discussion per the NCH on it.. I think they really depend on that model and it has influenced many of their forecasts in the past.. I just can't or don't want to buy it..

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS is coming in.

00 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

Well this run better meet him up with his family in SW LA AND NE TEXAS lol

[Sanibel]

GFS 18z run coming out now in models thread.

[Eyewall]

[quote="Aric Dunn"]radar presentation continues to improve as well as satellite !
the eyewall is becoming much more defined
latest radar [quote]

well the storm isnt at its closest point to the radar yet so untill it is there its going to improve just because its getting closer
does look better though

[PTrackerLA]

Can't wait to see what the GFDL 18z shows.

[ConvergenceZone]

Can you feel the love the NHC has for the GFDL in this statement.

While this solution is
outside the overall model guidance envelope...it can not be rule
out completely since this model has an excellent forecast track
history. The official track forecast is an update of the previous
one and follows the model consensus.

The NHC has been using the GFDL as their biggest influence for quite awhile.Hasn't failed them yet.They have been pretty reliable with forecast tracks

I do believe it has failed them in the past maybe not as frequent as other models but it has.
Let's be realistic though we are still talking about a 5 plus day landfall. It or any model is just not going to hit the bulleyes that far out.

I think the GFDL will gradually move south in line with the other models...might take awhile though, but we'll see.

[ExBailbonds]

GFS 500mb loop Just refresh every few mins it will add the new frames as they are availiable.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[AnnularCane]

Maybe not the love but I can sense their great concern regarding the GFDL--because it's such an awesome model and it's so far off the consensus right now. At this rate I expect the storm, due in part to its strength, to continuously push against the ridge and nudge north for the time being. Whether the upper level lows are sufficiently strong to take it north of Brownsville is another story. A good benchmark appears to be Jamaica. Those models that take it over the northern half of Jamaica tend to hit Texas with a stronger storm that misses most of the Yucatan, while those in the southern half have a weaker storm heading for Mexico. The NHC takes it right through the center of the island and therefore lands at the Texas, Mexico border. It will be worth watching to see where it hits Jamaica. Poor jamaica.

I am waiting to see what happens when he encounters Jamaica. I wonder if he will wobble around the island like so many others have done in the past. It remains to be seen whether it will be north or south of it, if he does, and whether or not it will affect the forecast track. Of course (and my memory may be a little fuzzy here), I don't think the long-term forecast track for Charley changed significantly despite his taking an unexpected (?) westward movement around Jamaica, so it may not affect it much if at all.

[artist]

is it taking on the stadium effect?

[Aric Dunn]

radar presentation continues to improve as well as satellite !
the eyewall is becoming much more defined
latest radar

well the storm isnt at its closest point to the radar yet so untill it is there its going to improve just because its getting closer
does look better though

well yeah // but when you look at the same distance and convection improves even in the midlevels and compare with satellite its pretty easy to tell that the radar presentation is not entirely due to getting closer to the site.
but yeah i have already accounted for the distance

[fasterdisaster]

When do you guys think it will hit Category 4? As early as the next advisory?

[Extremeweatherguy]

24 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

[WxGuy1]

Can someone explain the difference between the GFS operational and ensemble and which one is better to look at with regards to the track of a hurricane? I don't understand the disparity either.

Imagine that the GFS model is run as it has been. Now, imagine some minor modifications are made to the initial conditions, and then the model is run again. Modify the initial conditions slightly again, and run the model again. Do this 12 times or so (6 times using negative perturbations, 6 times using positive perturbations), and you have the ensemble output. Of course, it's much more complex than that, but that's a layman's explanation. In the past 10 years, computational resources have increased enough to allow for ensembles to be constructed in an operational sense. In general, it's believed that ensembles are a good way to get a feel on the predictability of the event. For example, if there is a very large spread in the ensembles, then there is an implication that one should put a little less confidence in the model solution (after all, observations have error, and a if a minor error in an observation can cause a significant change in the forecast, then it's a good idea to not trust any one particular solution over another solution since we don't know which obs have what errors -- again, it's a lot more complex than this, even well beyond what I know about NWP). On the other hand, if the ensembles spread is low, one can put a little more confidence in the solution. In this case, the operational GFS is to the left of the ensemble mean, which makes me want to weight the GFS a little less. I still think we're looking at a Yucatan landfall, though.

[PTrackerLA]

Whoa quite a NW jog towards Hispanola there.

[RL3AO]

When do you guys think it will hit Category 4? As early as the next advisory?

I'd bet it is right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

When do you guys think it will hit Category 4? As early as the next advisory?

very soon. I dont know about 5pm, but id say 8 or 11pm.

[Canelaw99]

When do you guys think it will hit Category 4? As early as the next advisory?

very soon. I dont know about 5pm, but id say 8 or 11pm.

I can guarantee it won't be 5pm - it's out already
Dean's definitely looking good though, so I would think by 11, if not the 8pm

[Eyewall]

well yeah // but when you look at the same distance and convection improves even in the midlevels and compare with satellite its pretty easy to tell that the radar presentation is not entirely due to getting closer to the site.
but yeah i have already accounted for the distance

i agree

[tropicsPR]

Statement of Puerto Rico's National Weather Service:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtge ... 0statement