CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[hial2]

radar presentation continues to improve as well as satellite !
the eyewall is becoming much more defined
latest radar

well the storm isnt at its closest point to the radar yet so untill it is there its going to improve just because its getting closer
does look better though

And remember,youre not looking a the surface,but quite a bit above sea level due to the angle...

[deltadog03]

about 44k...on radar

[Extremeweatherguy]

36 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

[Aric Dunn]

radar presentation continues to improve as well as satellite !
the eyewall is becoming much more defined
latest radar

well the storm isnt at its closest point to the radar yet so untill it is there its going to improve just because its getting closer
does look better though

And remember,youre not looking a the surface,but quite a bit above sea level due to the angle...[/quote]


yeah exactlly.. if the midlevels are that well defined and then you compare with satellite so yeah its becoming more defined!

[ExBailbonds]

18 GFS 10 loop Here is the loop if you pefer it over single images.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stormcenter]

36 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

Look at the twins behind Dean.

[Cellrock]

One of best looking storms I have seen. This will be huge monster in the gulf.

[cheezyWXguy]

When do you guys think it will hit Category 4? As early as the next advisory?

very soon. I dont know about 5pm, but id say 8 or 11pm.

I can guarantee it won't be 5pm - it's out already
Dean's definitely looking good though, so I would think by 11, if not the 8pm

Woops...i keep foregtting its alreday happened, since its only 4:45 central here

[Extremeweatherguy]

42 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

I have a feeling this run will be similar to the 12z run. I do not expect to see any major changes until may be the 00z run with new data.

[whereverwx]

Here's the latest eye close-up.

[fasterdisaster]

Infrared finally almost showing a full circle of that red convection around the eye

[RL3AO]

One of best looking storms I have seen. This will be huge monster in the gulf.

Still the third best looking storm this week worldwide.

[WxGuy1]

When do you guys think it will hit Category 4? As early as the next advisory?

Maybe by 11pm. In all honesty, I'm not THAT impressed by the satellite presentation yet, at least in terms of Cat 4+ hurricanes. With the eye improving, I think it looks pretty good as a cat 3. Of course, it's extremely difficult to judge intensity based on satellite. I'll start thinking Cat 4 when I see SLP slip <940mb. So far, the wind field is relatively small.

Regardless, I think it looks much worse than other storms we've seen in the past 3-4 years (Ivan, Katrina, Rita, and ever others that were only Cat 3-4). Yes, it looks BETTER than the past few days, but I don't think it looks THAT good. Let the eye clear out, and let the storm fill in on the west side a bit (where dry air is leading to a little asymmetry to the cloud pattern). I do expect Dean to look beautiful in 24-48 hours. Of course, this is just my opinion.

[ExBailbonds]

Look at the twins behind Dean.

Triplets

[PTrackerLA]

Can someone explain the difference between the GFS operational and ensemble and which one is better to look at with regards to the track of a hurricane? I don't understand the disparity either.

Imagine that the GFS model is run as it has been. Now, imagine some minor modifications are made to the initial conditions, and then the model is run again. Modify the initial conditions slightly again, and run the model again. Do this 12 times or so (6 times using negative perturbations, 6 times using positive perturbations), and you have the ensemble output. Of course, it's much more complex than that, but that's a layman's explanation. In the past 10 years, computational resources have increased enough to allow for ensembles to be constructed in an operational sense. In general, it's believed that ensembles are a good way to get a feel on the predictability of the event. For example, if there is a very large spread in the ensembles, then there is an implication that one should put a little less confidence in the model solution (after all, observations have error, and a if a minor error in an observation can cause a significant change in the forecast, then it's a good idea to not trust any one particular solution over another solution since we don't know which obs have what errors -- again, it's a lot more complex than this, even well beyond what I know about NWP). On the other hand, if the ensembles spread is low, one can put a little more confidence in the solution. In this case, the operational GFS is to the left of the ensemble mean, which makes me want to weight the GFS a little less. I still think we're looking at a Yucatan landfall, though.

Thanks for the explanation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

48 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

[KBBOCA]

The previous pic posted by calamity (previous page) is amazing. This monster fills the whole eastern Caribbean from PR to the ABC islands... WOW. Incredible to watch. I just wish it would have been a fish...

[KBBOCA]

One of best looking storms I have seen. This will be huge monster in the gulf.

Still the third best looking storm this week worldwide.

LOL! Too true, and pretty amazing. Well, certainly NOT a boring week in the tropics!!

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[fasterdisaster]

New IR frame in, still improving:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html