CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Wthrman13
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models

#6681 Postby Wthrman13 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:52 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Another thing... with a big mass like Dean has, momentum means something as well. If his forward momentum is moving in one direction, it wants to keep moving in that direction. -this also points to less likely of any scenario depicting abrupt changes in direction.


This is a common misconception. Hurricanes do not behave like solid objects in this manner. They are essentially large vorticies embedded in a larger-scale flow, and the dynamics of such flows are such that the vortex can and will change direction sharply, depending on the large-scale flow. There is no "momentum" in the classic sense. Think of it this way, at any given moment, the amount of mass that Dean has is large, but that mass is continually being processed through the storm, so that the air and water in the storm at one time is not the same air and water that is in the storm several hours later. In actuality, since hurricane's are warm-core low-pressure systems (low pressure at warmer temperatures = lower density), the amount of mass that a hurricane contains may actually be less (although the water will make up for this) than a similar volume of surrounding air.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6682 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:52 pm

The East Coast trough and the upper low are still in place. The trough is a little deaper than I expected, going all the way down to N GA. The ULL over the Bahamas is beginning to move west as predicted. It will be interesting to see how long it takes the trough to pull out and the low to retrograde. Take a look at this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

The point i am trying to make is that, as many have stated, the models seem to be underplaying these upper air features... not saying that they are wrong, but that they might be...
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Re: Re:

#6683 Postby Eyewall » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:53 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:When do you guys think it will hit Category 4? As early as the next advisory?


Maybe by 11pm. In all honesty, I'm not THAT impressed by the satellite presentation yet, at least in terms of Cat 4+ hurricanes. With the eye improving, I think it looks pretty good as a cat 3. Of course, it's extremely difficult to judge intensity based on satellite. I'll start thinking Cat 4 when I see SLP slip <940mb. So far, the wind field is relatively small.

Regardless, I think it looks much worse than other storms we've seen in the past 3-4 years (Ivan, Katrina, Rita, and ever others that were only Cat 3-4). Yes, it looks BETTER than the past few days, but I don't think it looks THAT good. Let the eye clear out, and let the storm fill in on the west side a bit (where dry air is leading to a little asymmetry to the cloud pattern). I do expect Dean to look beautiful in 24-48 hours. Of course, this is just my opinion.


i agree 100%
its looking mediocre 8-)
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#6684 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:53 pm

60 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

Look at that weakness near the yucatan! If Dean is even slightly faster (or if the ULL is slower) than this run shows, then there is just no way it would miss it.
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#6685 Postby jhamps10 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:53 pm

Stadium look to the eye?
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Re:

#6686 Postby WxGuy1 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:60 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

Look at that weakness near the yucatan! If Dean is even slightly faster than this run shows, then there is just no way it would miss it.


I think it'll come down to what side of Jamaica Dean traverses. If Dean goes north of Jamaica, I think it may head into the Gulf after skimming the Yucatan (or missing it altogether). If Dean stays south of Jamaica, I think there's a better chance it'll miss that break and continue to steamroll into the central Yucatan before emerging into the Bay of Campeche as a tropical storm.
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#6687 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:56 pm

GFS looks too slow with dean anyway!
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Breaking News: Confirmed Damage in Puerto Rico

#6688 Postby StormScanWx » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:56 pm

Breaking News: Confirmed Minor Damage in Puerto Rico..

I have a subscription to AllisonHouse with my GRLevel3 software. I see on the Storm Report wire that Yabucoa in Puerto Rico has seen fallen trees with the initial bands of Hurricane Dean.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6689 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:57 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:The East Coast trough and the upper low are still in place. The trough is a little deaper than I expected, going all the way down to N GA. The ULL over the Bahamas is beginning to move west as predicted. It will be interesting to see how long it takes the trough to pull out and the low to retrograde. Take a look at this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

The point i am trying to make is that, as many have stated, the models seem to be underplaying these upper air features... not saying that they are wrong, but that they might be...



Wow that trough is pretty amplified this eve..
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6690 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:57 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:The East Coast trough and the upper low are still in place. The trough is a little deaper than I expected, going all the way down to N GA. The ULL over the Bahamas is beginning to move west as predicted. It will be interesting to see how long it takes the trough to pull out and the low to retrograde. Take a look at this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

The point i am trying to make is that, as many have stated, the models seem to be underplaying these upper air features... not saying that they are wrong, but that they might be...


I understand that the low will cause a weakness for Dean to possibly slip through, but what effect(s) would the trough digging in deeper have, if any? I've been here 3 yrs and still don't totally understand it all! LOL :wink:
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Re:

#6691 Postby Sabanic » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:57 pm

deltadog03 wrote:GFS looks too slow with dean anyway!

and weak also
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Re: Breaking News: Confirmed Damage in Puerto Rico

#6692 Postby Eyewall » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:57 pm

StormScanWx wrote:Breaking News: Confirmed Minor Damage in Puerto Rico..

I have a subscription to AllisonHouse with my GRLevel3 software. I see on the Storm Report wire that Yabucoa in Puerto Rico has seen fallen trees with the initial bands of Hurricane Dean.


wierd cause i couldnt find any reports of wind higher than a gust to 31 mph
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#6693 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:58 pm

Image

latest
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#6694 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:58 pm

72 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

The GFS just seems a bit too slow. This 3-day position is SE (slower) than the current NHC track. If the storm is faster and closer to the NHC path, then it will likely not miss the weakness.
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#6695 Postby fasterdisaster » Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:59 pm

That eye looks less ragged.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (11am p161) Discussions, Analysis

#6696 Postby superdeluxe » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:00 pm

Wow.

impressive eye.
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Re:

#6697 Postby canetracker » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:01 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:72 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

The GFS just seems a bit too slow. This 3-day position is SE (slower) than the current NHC track. If the storm is faster and closer to the NHC path, then it will likely not miss the weakness.


It really does look too slow. Whats up with that?
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Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#6698 Postby artist » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:01 pm

haven't heard from many this afternoon in the islands - hope you are all safe and prepared if it is still coming your way. Check in as soon as you can
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: Global Models=18z GFS is rolling in

#6699 Postby Sabanic » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:01 pm

I also believe that with the slight trend we are seeing on the models, that if it continues the NHC track will begin to reflect that tomorrow.
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Re: Breaking News: Confirmed Damage in Puerto Rico

#6700 Postby StormScanWx » Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:01 pm

Eyewall wrote:
StormScanWx wrote:Breaking News: Confirmed Minor Damage in Puerto Rico..

I have a subscription to AllisonHouse with my GRLevel3 software. I see on the Storm Report wire that Yabucoa in Puerto Rico has seen fallen trees with the initial bands of Hurricane Dean.


wierd cause i couldnt find any reports of wind higher than a gust to 31 mph


http://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd20 ... ture-1.jpg
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