OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[P.K.]

WTNT32 KNHC 120541
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLGA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
200 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...OLGA LOSING SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA...HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES... 105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF A WEAKER OLGA SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER TODAY AND THEN OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA
AND JAMAICA.

SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OLGA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...19.0 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

so is it close to exiting land?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

00 Z 12 DEC CMC has Olga hitting the SW Florida Coast as
a strong tropical storm.
GFS tries to pull moisture into FL.
And GFDL keeps it as a strong tropical
storm but hitting central america.

[Chacor]

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND
HWRF FORECAST OLGA TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHTER WIND SHEAR IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND IN CONSEQUENCE BOTH MODELS FORECAST IT
TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

[wxman57]

Shear is definitely on the increase now. Squalls are diminishing quickly. The 50 mph wind estimate is quite generous. Olga won't be around too much longer except as a remnant low-level swirl.

[Coredesat]

Shouldn't be long now:

[wxman57]

Shouldn't be long now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2.jpg

That satellite image indicates that the center may be well south and west of the NHC estimate - evidence that the shear is really increasing and the LLC is splitting from the convection. The satellite may also show that the center has opened up into a broad swirl. Will be able to see it better in visible imagery in a few hours.

[HURAKAN]

If there is any center left it should be out in the next few hours.

[Squarethecircle]

I'm going to have to wait for the visible to even try to pass judgment on this, although it seems now that most potential tracks get it ripped apart pretty quickly.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 121138
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLGA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
800 AM AST WED DEC 12 2007

...OLGA WEAKENING AS THE CENTER REACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS HAITI. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
PUNTA PALENQUE. THESE WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
TODAY.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLGA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND
ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OLGA NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLGA HAS
BECOME DISORGANIZED...AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. OLGA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TURKS ISLAND
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...61 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN CUBA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...19.3 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks ugly this morning. Olga the Ugly lol. Anyways, is there a chance of a center reformation closer to the convection if it gets sheared away?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[xironman]

If you look at the SWIR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-ir2.html, you can see a little swirl near where the NHC put the center 19.2N 72.5W, about to go off the north shore. You can also see a low level eddy far to the southwest of that.

[cycloneye]

12/1145 UTC 19.6N 74.4W TOO WEAK OLGA -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Adios.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't think it matters much where the center is. All that matters is Lake Okeechobee gets some much needed rain. It looks like the lake and S. Fl will get some rain. Hopefully alot and steady before the front arrives.

[Coredesat]

The way the system looks right now there won't be too much moisture left to contribute to the approaching front. Some, but not very much.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 121250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC WED DEC 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA (AL172007) 20071212 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071212 1200 071213 0000 071213 1200 071214 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.1N 74.2W 19.6N 77.7W 19.6N 80.9W 19.8N 83.4W
BAMD 19.1N 74.2W 19.2N 75.6W 19.1N 76.8W 19.0N 78.2W
BAMM 19.1N 74.2W 19.2N 76.9W 19.2N 79.0W 19.4N 81.0W
LBAR 19.1N 74.2W 19.3N 77.1W 19.6N 79.6W 20.0N 82.0W
SHIP 35KTS 33KTS 29KTS 26KTS
DSHP 35KTS 33KTS 29KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071214 1200 071215 1200 071216 1200 071217 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 85.7W 21.0N 89.2W 22.2N 87.7W 21.6N 85.0W
BAMD 18.8N 79.7W 18.8N 83.0W 20.2N 83.5W 21.9N 76.2W
BAMM 19.4N 82.8W 20.3N 86.2W 23.2N 83.9W 25.9N 73.4W
LBAR 20.0N 83.5W 20.0N 86.3W 20.6N 86.1W 19.2N 84.3W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.1N LONCUR = 74.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 67.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 250NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 255NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 175NM

$$
Is moving very fast at 20kts at 270 degrees.The models in a generous way keep it as a 35kt storm.

[Blown Away]

Do you think Olga would have become a cane briefly if she had not gone over Hispanola?

[Squarethecircle]

Not likely. She'd have to follow a fairly specific track to avoid significant shear and have the time to develop into a hurricane.

[Coredesat]

Storm2k Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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-------------

Tropical Storm OLGA (17L)

TIME: 1300 UTC 12 December 2007
FCST: 04

PSTN: 19.4°N 74.3°W FAIR (1215Z GOES-10 VIS/IR2)
WIND: 35 kt
PRES: 1006 hPa
MOVE: W 17 kt
Dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water

Olga (17L) has weakened rapidly since the previous forecast due to interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola and increasing wind shear. There is no longer any convection within 3 degrees of the center, which has begun to run away from the remaining convection as the low-level circulation center is picked up by very strong low-level easterly flow beneath a strong surface ridge over the southeastern United States. The shortwave IR loop shows several lesser swirls in the rapidly weakening convection north of Hispaniola; these swirls are transient and are probably not an indication of a center relocation. The system is too weak to classify with the Dvorak technique; based on its current appearance I am estimating its intensity to be 35 kt, and this is probably generous.

There is no change to the track prognostic; as Olga is being steered by low-level currents, it should continue to move rapidly westward or west-northwestward over the next couple days. With shear amounting to 40 kt ahead, the system does not appear to have much of a future as a tropical cyclone. Unless an unlikely center relocation occurs somewhat to the north, the system should weaken to a remnant low within 24 hours or so, and dissipate outright within 36 hours. Moisture from Olga's remnants may contribute to a winter storm the global models are progging for this weekend, though the substantial dry air surrounding it may limit any impact it has on this storm's development.

12HR FCST: 19.5°N 77.2°W
WIND/PRES: 30 kt/1009 hPa
Dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water

24HR FCST: 19.8°N 80.2°W
WIND/PRES: 20 kt/1009 hPa
Dissipating as a significant tropical cyclone over water

36HR FCST: 20.3°N 82.8°W
WIND/PRES: 20 kt/1009 hPa
Dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over water

Next update: N/A
Next forecast: 0000 UTC 13 December 2007

Weaver

No graphics are associated with this forecast.

[wxman57]

Do you think Olga would have become a cane briefly if she had not gone over Hispanola?

Nope, Olga was weakening as recon got there. Peak intensity was likely 4-6 hours before recon arrived. And it really never was that tropical, as Derek pointed out.