Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[fci]

:uarrow: Sky,that is more west.

indeed models continue to trend west...interesting what the NHC cone will do at 5pm EST

Karen may indeed impact the Leewards and enter the Hebert box.

......

Please lets remember that the "Hebert Box" is nothing mystical.
It only says that of the storms that affect South Florida most of them go through the Hebert Box.
It DOES NOT say that every storm that DOES go through the box will then hit South Florida.

[chadtm80]

:uarrow: Sky,that is more west.

indeed models continue to trend west...interesting what the NHC cone will do at 5pm EST

Karen may indeed impact the Leewards and enter the Hebert box.

......

Please lets remember that the "Hebert Box" is nothing mystical.
It only says that of the storms that affect South Florida most of them go through the Hebert Box.
It DOES NOT say that every storm that DOES go through the box will then hit South Florida.

And to add to that further its only in play for MAJOR hurricanes

[chris_fit]

Another view...

[Category 5]

You could see a little eye trying to form earlier.

[fci]

[quote="gatorcane
indeed models continue to trend west...interesting what the NHC cone will do at 5pm EST

Karen may indeed impact the Leewards and enter the Hebert box.

......

Please lets remember that the "Hebert Box" is nothing mystical.
It only says that of the storms that affect South Florida most of them go through the Hebert Box.
It DOES NOT say that every storm that DOES go through the box will then hit South Florida.

And to add to that further its only in play for MAJOR hurricanes[/quote]

That is a MAJOR point that is generally missed when talking about the Hebert Box.
The theory says:
"If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida." (credit to http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm)

Often people think that any disturbance that crosses into the box applies.
WAY too often, people think that ANY storm that goes through the box will affect South Florida.
This is simply incorrect.

I will say that the models sure have shifted closer to the Islands and to a course towards the CONUS.
However, like Daniel said earlier, it may give a look at the CONUS but will still most likely turn away.

Don Sutherland had an excellent statistical look at this in the Tropical Analysis thread (viewtopic.php?f=29&t=98285) about the number of storms (0) that made landfall when they developed east of 40W after Sept 20.

So, maybe we get a little excitement until Karen takes the "expected" path away.
I still would prefer that the models not keep moving more and more west.......

[cycloneye]

GFDL has an open wave at the end of run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hebert box or no, that particular area of ocean is of concern for NC when the synoptics are favorable for development or intensification. It IS late in the season but syonoptic rule. I am not liking the ridge forecast. Seems like a the auto-recurve scenario is decreasing and the WHOA, better watch it and see scenario is much more likely. The ridges have been crazy strong all year. And now the typical fall troughiness is going make this a lot more interesting than a couple days ago

[Thunder44]

Huh? Nope right through the Hebert box just north of the Leewards and heading 280...WEst.

The storm never makes it SE of 20N and 60W and it heads NW or NNW after 72hrs.

[Lowpressure]

GFDL has an open wave at the end of run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Didn't it do the same for Felix early on?

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF

Distint from GFDL,HWRF makes it a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

[Category 5]

Tried to form that eye earlier.

[CrazyC83]

Now trying to pinhole on us?

[cycloneye]

844
WHXX01 KWBC 261848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070926 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070926 1800 070927 0600 070927 1800 070928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 43.1W 13.8N 46.2W 15.8N 49.3W 17.2N 52.1W
BAMD 12.1N 43.1W 13.3N 45.3W 14.9N 47.2W 16.4N 48.7W
BAMM 12.1N 43.1W 13.3N 45.7W 14.8N 48.0W 16.1N 49.8W
LBAR 12.1N 43.1W 13.2N 45.0W 14.9N 46.9W 16.3N 48.4W
SHIP 60KTS 69KTS 73KTS 73KTS
DSHP 60KTS 69KTS 73KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070928 1800 070929 1800 070930 1800 071001 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.6N 54.5W 20.3N 58.0W 21.9N 60.5W 22.9N 62.9W
BAMD 17.7N 50.0W 20.0N 51.8W 22.2N 53.6W 24.8N 55.5W
BAMM 17.1N 51.2W 18.7N 53.3W 20.4N 54.6W 22.3N 55.9W
LBAR 17.2N 49.7W 19.1N 51.8W 21.1N 53.1W 23.1N 53.9W
SHIP 72KTS 65KTS 64KTS 63KTS
DSHP 72KTS 65KTS 64KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 43.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 41.5W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$

[CrazyC83]

26/1745 UTC 12.2N 42.5W T3.5/3.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean

[curtadams]

Well right of the forecast track. Here, fishyfishyfishy!

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to think it is just going to keep going W or WNW for the next few days...

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

Bermuda may be on the track of Karen according to NOGAPS so if that occurs,Karen will not be a fish.

[skysummit]

12z EURO still turns it west, however bounces it back due north at the end.

12z EURO

[punkyg]

Hi yall so is recon still going out or did they cancel.