CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Ixolib]

Anyone remember that internet radio link we listened from Kingston during Ivan in 2004? Anyone have that link?

http://go-jamaica.com/power/

[jacindc]

Anyone else notice that the storm has slowed to 18 mph?

Yes figured this would happen..i think it may go to 12mph

Apparently they said on TWC not too long ago that if it stays about 18 MPH, it'll get sucked northward toward the Gulf, otherwise if it slows it'll continue more westerly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is anyone going to be around to post the GFS as it comes out at 11:30?

(can't *believe* how quiet it is in here for a Cat 4-probably-going-to-a-Cat-5)

This is the models thread. There are not many new models to look at until the GFS comes out, so that is why it is quiet. Once the GFS, GFDL and UKMET come out, this thread will pick up again.

[vacanechaser]

496
WTNT44 KNHC 180301
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

DEAN HAS BEEN STEADILY INTENSIFYING TONIGHT. THE U.S. AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 138 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 124 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE AIRCRAFT IS EQUIPPED WITH THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WHICH MEASURED WINDS AS STRONG AS 123 KT THIS
EVENING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN
DROPPING...WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENT BEING 937 MB. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THE
STORM HAS BECOME A GOOD BIT LARGER...AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DEAN MIGHT ALSO HAVE A CLOSE ENCOUNTER
WITH NOAA BUOY 42059...LESS THAN 100 N MI DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE
CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...IN A FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS NOTABLY
DISAGREE AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN OUTLYING GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...HAS
NOT CHANGED NOTICEABLY...SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE
OTHER WAY. THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT DAYS FOUR AND
FIVE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL OF THOSE
LONGER FORECAST RANGES. THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT AND
GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ALSO REFECT
THESE UNCERTAINTIES. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
SIMILAR AT EACH LOCATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIFFERENTIATE
THE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF DEAN...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND WARM WATERS
AHEAD...WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES
AND/OR BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS
THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND IS ONLY LOWERED ON
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO POTENTIAL PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.9N 65.9W 125 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W 130 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W 135 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W 135 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 110 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


cat 5 forecast


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Derek Ortt]

the models had Dean well north and east of this position. These same models were trending north of all of the islands and if there was going to be an impact, it was supposed to be tomorrow

that worked out quite well

If a 5 day forecast is pointing directly at you... it usually means that you will not get hit. Remember, the error on a 5 day is more than 300 miles

[CrazyC83]

956
URNT15 KNHC 180301
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 31 20070818
025030 1432N 06540W 6968 03049 9951 +078 +078 223061 062 050 004 00
025100 1433N 06541W 6963 03045 9942 +077 +077 222062 063 052 007 00
025130 1434N 06542W 6966 03033 9932 +076 +076 222063 064 054 008 00
025200 1436N 06544W 6968 03016 9926 +072 +072 220066 067 057 009 00
025230 1437N 06545W 6965 03010 9913 +072 +072 224067 068 060 032 03
025300 1438N 06546W 6966 02994 9901 +068 +068 230067 068 061 016 00
025330 1439N 06547W 6960 02982 9870 +077 +077 236068 069 065 010 03
025400 1440N 06548W 6974 02952 9835 +091 +091 239070 073 069 009 03
025430 1442N 06549W 6962 02937 9811 +084 +084 240074 077 075 007 00
025500 1443N 06550W 6968 02901 9749 +108 +108 242082 085 079 001 00
025530 1445N 06550W 6974 02845 9674 +128 +117 244091 096 087 032 00
025600 1447N 06551W 6968 02796 9584 +150 +119 243101 102 106 054 03
025630 1449N 06551W 6970 02701 9522 +122 +122 243109 117 108 016 03
025700 1450N 06552W 6920 02675 9417 +135 +133 230062 083 081 031 03
025730 1452N 06553W 6986 02572 9344 +193 +103 212023 031 041 003 03
025800 1453N 06554W 6964 02591 9328 +195 +094 216006 011 027 001 03
025830 1453N 06556W 6970 02579 9327 +196 +090 014006 012 027 001 00
025900 1454N 06558W 6962 02598 9377 +173 +096 014023 032 045 003 03
025930 1454N 06600W 6974 02608 9401 +148 +130 359056 070 110 010 03
030000 1454N 06601W 6960 02668 9990 +110 +999 355083 088 122 013 05
$$

933mb extrapolated...

[ExBailbonds]

5 days ago advisory 1

[img=http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/9172/ad1mw5.th.gif]


Not very far off

[Stormcenter]

the models had Dean well north and east of this position. These same models were trending north of all of the islands and if there was going to be an impact, it was supposed to be tomorrow

that worked out quite well

If a 5 day forecast is pointing directly at you... it usually means that you will not get hit. Remember, the error on a 5 day is more than 300 miles

So does that mean I should be worried where I'm at?

[HouTXmetro]

Is anyone going to be around to post the GFS as it comes out at 11:30?

(can't *believe* how quiet it is in here for a Cat 4-probably-going-to-a-Cat-5)

If its not going to impact the US directly then the interest somewhat goes down. Not saying that the mainland is out of the woods by any means but things look somewhat better for us.

[canegrl04]

"MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE OTHER WAY"

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm pleased...we're now on almost 2 days straight getting the same forecast from the NHC and from the computer models. Unless something freaky happens, this is a Mexico storm. Personally, I'm breathing easy. I'm watching, but, this type of consistencey from the NHC with a storm this far out is pretty rare. They've got this one clocked, just as the models do. It's going to Mexico or maybe extreme S. Texas.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Appreciate you clearing that up, thanks. I am sure a lot of people have forgotten about that, I know i sure did.

[weatherguru18]

5 days ago advisory 1

[img=http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/9172/ad1mw5.th.gif]

What is your point? The current position of the hurricane is well within, if not right in the center, of the cone. I do agree that rarely does the hurricane actually hit were the 5 day cone is.

[KBBOCA]

I'm shocked the NHC discussion makes NO mention of Jamaica and possible catastrophic landfall there. I know that it's not their role to issue warnings for that country, but still..., one might think they'd say something.

[canegrl04]

I'm pleased...we're now on almost 2 days straight getting the same forecast from the NHC and from the computer models. Unless something freaky happens, this is a Mexico storm. Personally, I'm breathing easy. I'm watching, but, this type of consistencey from the NHC with a storm this far out is pretty rare. They've got this one clocked, just as the models do. It's going to Mexico or maybe extreme S. Texas.

Latest NHC discussion ..."MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE OTHER WAY". They are not saying the current trends are set in stone

[btangy]

I'm really becoming increasing concerned for Jamaica. Obviously if Dean passes just south of the island then Kingston Bay will get inundated with storm surge. However, looking at elevation info (assuming Google Earth is somewhat accurate) it does increase quickly and as you get to central and northern parts of Kingston (pop. around 500,000) are around 200 to 400 feet. As we know with hurricanes in the lower levels the higher you go up the stronger the winds become so I can see a bad situation where the eyes goes over Kingston or just south with 10m winds of 150-160 mph and then you tack on another 5-10 or so for those higher elevations. Could be a very bad situation.

Now while Kingston is surrounded by mountains (around 1500-3000 ft according to Google Earth) I wonder if they'll play havoc with some of those lower level winds. I'm sure most of you have heard of mountains waves that occur when winds blow over mountain ranges. Good example is Denver which is notorious for these waves and hence why flying into that airport is so bumpy due to the shear they can create. Now with those mountains in Jamaica only being a few thousand feet high when compared to the Denver mountain range I'm not sure how much of a wave/shear effect can be produce by the expected easterly winds, assuming Dean goes over them or just to the south. However, if decent wave action can be produce by those mountains then I can see situations where in addition to slightly increased winds due to the 200-400 ft elevations in some parts of the city you'd also see areas of even stronger winds due to these horizontal mountain waves dragging down stronger winds aloft thanks to the shear. Again not totally sure if that'd be an issue in this case but just some thoughts I had in head at this late hour.

I do agree this is looking dire for Jamaica.

As for your second point, I do not think this will be a problem. What happens on the front range of the Rockies (the "Chinooks") and in Southern California (the "Santa Anas") are very unique setups that require strong winds across the mountain axis, a very strong stable layer at the mountain top, and synoptic scale subsidence. This setup leads to something called hydraulic jump sometimes which can produce extremely strong downslope winds.

Obviously, you can't satisfy the strong stable layer and synoptic scale subsidence criteria in the core of a hurricane. Given that the hurricane is saturated in the inner core, the moist static stability is essentially zero (maybe very slightly positive), and obviously one has mesoscale ascent in the eyewall.

[ExBailbonds]

5 days ago advisory 1

[img=http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/9172/ad1mw5.th.gif]

What is your point? The current position of the hurricane is well within, if not right in the center, of the cone. I do agree that rarely does the hurricane actually hit were the 5 day cone is.

Point is the very first cone was just abought dead on 5 days out. yes rare but there it is

[Extremeweatherguy]

5 days ago advisory 1

[img=http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/9172/ad1mw5.th.gif]


Not very far off

Dean is a lot faster than that original track predicted and it is more SW too..but none the less, it is still within that 5-day cone. Just goes to show that at 5-days out you should never follow the skinny black line. If the same thing happens this time (where it doesn't follow the line) then TX could be in trouble. Gives us more reason to watch, that's for sure.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I smell a Mexico storm...we've had the same forecast from the NHC and the computer models for 2 days now. They've got this one clocked. It may hit S. Texas, but, it likely will strike further S than the current forecast. Models are tending Southward. We should watch, of course, but, as time passes this is clearly turning into a Mexican event.

[weatherguru18]

5 days ago advisory 1

[img=http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/9172/ad1mw5.th.gif]

What is your point? The current position of the hurricane is well within, if not right in the center, of the cone. I do agree that rarely does the hurricane actually hit were the 5 day cone is.

Point is the very first cone was just abought dead on 5 days out. yes rare but there it is

Oh yeah...I agree.