CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HurryKane]

I'm pleased...we're now on almost 2 days straight getting the same forecast from the NHC and from the computer models. Unless something freaky happens, this is a Mexico storm. Personally, I'm breathing easy. I'm watching, but, this type of consistencey from the NHC with a storm this far out is pretty rare. They've got this one clocked, just as the models do. It's going to Mexico or maybe extreme S. Texas.

I don't think I'll ever breathe easy again when there's a storm in the Caribbean/GOM.

Thanks to whomever posted the Jamaican radio link again.

Is there a page or source where I could find something regarding the track record(s) of the various models? Thanks.

[vacanechaser]

notice the 140kts??? that would be about 161mph as it approaches the yucatan... not to mention 155mph coming into and over jamaica.. wow.. worse than gilbert for them



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm pleased...we're now on almost 2 days straight getting the same forecast from the NHC and from the computer models. Unless something freaky happens, this is a Mexico storm. Personally, I'm breathing easy. I'm watching, but, this type of consistencey from the NHC with a storm this far out is pretty rare. They've got this one clocked, just as the models do. It's going to Mexico or maybe extreme S. Texas.

Latest NHC discussion ..."MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE OTHER WAY". They are not saying the current trends are set in stone

And they might shift Southward. Don't wishcast this storm on your home state. Trust me, you don't want it....

[jhamps10]

I smell a Mexico storm...we've had the same forecast from the NHC and the computer models for 2 days now. They've got this one clocked. It may hit S. Texas, but, it likely will strike further S than the current forecast. Models are tending Southward. We should watch, of course, but, as time passes this is clearly turning into a Mexican event.

How many people meantioned the same thing about Nola before Katrina.....

not accusing you in any way Sean, but people the models may change, the NHC said so themselves, I'm still going with a Texas landfall, and not near the border. remember we are still 5+days from a landfall, a lot can and will change between now and then.

[miamicanes177]

Contrary to popular belief, the GFS has not applied the cement as of yet. History tells us that this will not make landfall where the GFS says it will. Why? Because it is too far away still. The track error at this stage is very large. Given the GFS is still forecasting a Mexico landfall in the location it was 5 days ago, I put the odds of this scenario playing out at under 1%. The GFS has not switched from its 300+ hour forecast 5 days ago and the odds of that path coming to fruition is under 1/100.

[KBBOCA]

If true, this is very worrying info, posted by one of the storm correspondents at Storm Carib:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/bonaire.shtml
------

Got this off the internet. Air Jamaica’s site says nada about airport closures:

I have been advised that flights tomorrow to and from Montego bay will either be cancelled or delayed.

The Airport will no doubt be closed some time during Saturday all day Sunday and a good part of Monday.

I would strongly advise any vacations departing tomorrow to reschedule their vacation. You really do not want to be in Jamaica at this time.

Airlines are still flying vacationers to the island to day which is, to say the least, irresponsible.

I am

Gary Stephens
Vice President of Operations
Couples Resorts.

and will be based in Ocho Rios during the week end.

[gerrit]

aren't those islands that will be threatened? Doesn't seem right to drop it yet.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I smell a Mexico storm...we've had the same forecast from the NHC and the computer models for 2 days now. They've got this one clocked. It may hit S. Texas, but, it likely will strike further S than the current forecast. Models are tending Southward. We should watch, of course, but, as time passes this is clearly turning into a Mexican event.

How many people meantioned the same thing about Nola before Katrina.....

not accusing you in any way Sean, but people the models may change, the NHC said so themselves, I'm still going with a Texas landfall, and not near the border. remember we are still 5+days from a landfall, a lot can and will change between now and then.

Most said it was going to Florida until we had a major change in direction with Katrina...but, with Katrina there was no ridge. There is a strong ridge that is going to be in place with this storm. If anything, it will likely be pushed further S. into Mexico than N.

[Extremeweatherguy]

5 days ago advisory 1

[img=http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/9172/ad1mw5.th.gif]

What is your point? The current position of the hurricane is well within, if not right in the center, of the cone. I do agree that rarely does the hurricane actually hit were the 5 day cone is.

Point is the very first cone was just abought dead on 5 days out. yes rare but there it is

I disagree with it being "dead on". It had Dean just west of the islands at 8am on Saturday...but currently at 10pm on FRIDAY it is near the 15N latitude line south of Puerto Rico. That means the original path was way too slow and too far north. Sure, it was a good forecast, but it certainly was not a great one.

[fasterdisaster]

I smell a Mexico storm...we've had the same forecast from the NHC and the computer models for 2 days now. They've got this one clocked. It may hit S. Texas, but, it likely will strike further S than the current forecast. Models are tending Southward. We should watch, of course, but, as time passes this is clearly turning into a Mexican event.

Sorry but you are acting very foolish. Models have not been trending at all. Just because one run of models goes south hardly means they are trending south. Not a single person in the world can say anything exact about where this storm is heading. And I feel that some of your comments may be disrespectful to Mexicans. Point is, models go up and down, up and down, and will continue. Who knows, by morning the forecast could be anywhere from Tampico to Lafeyette.

[artist]

seems nuts to me. I hope those that wanted to did get out.

[KBBOCA]

Pictures from St. Lucia are up on Storm Carib

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

No word yet from Martinique

[Betrock]

I'm confused...
"96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT...INLAND"

Aren't those coordinates in the Gulf between the Yucatan & Mexico?
Why does it say 'Inland'?

[mgpetre]

Although I've noticed no one is willing to commit to a landfall and no one wants to scare anyone (which I by no means do either), I am going to make my wrong prediction now... despite the fact that without a Houston/Galveston landfall my wife will forever think I'm crazy for worrying about this thing so much, I believe Dean is going to hit the US about 20 miles south of Corpus as a Cat 3. Just my prediction...

Now, while I'm here. Can someone give me a little information as to how much actual data is put into the models? Is it a pressure gradient mostly? Are water vapor synoptics also considered? Is it a glogal model that includes the push from storms on the other side of the world? I know it's the whole "butterfly effect" thing going on to some extent, just curious as to how complete the data models are for these initializations. I was a chemical engineer at one point and know that in a closed system you have to include everything to get any idea as to what's really going to happen and the earth is a fairly closed system (the day we start inputting data about solar flares into hurricane modelling is the day I'll be very confident in the models.) Just curious, because I know very little about the complexities of these things.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I smell a Mexico storm...we've had the same forecast from the NHC and the computer models for 2 days now. They've got this one clocked. It may hit S. Texas, but, it likely will strike further S than the current forecast. Models are tending Southward. We should watch, of course, but, as time passes this is clearly turning into a Mexican event.

Sorry but you are acting very foolish. Models have not been trending at all. Just because one run of models goes south hardly means they are trending south. Not a single person in the world can say anything exact about where this storm is heading. And I feel that some of your comments may be disrespectful to Mexicans. Point is, models go up and down, up and down, and will continue. Who knows, by morning the forecast could be anywhere from Tampico to Lafeyette.

How in the hell is this disrpespectful to Mexicans? Where in the hell did you get that from? You're warped. All I've said is the stomr appears to be going to Mexico.

[CrazyC83]

352
URNT15 KNHC 180310
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 32 20070818
030030 1454N 06603W 6994 02709 9990 +090 +999 000119 127 121 046 05
030100 1454N 06605W 6954 02814 9990 +089 +999 005125 128 096 045 05
030130 1454N 06606W 6947 02877 9720 +087 +087 007110 114 091 038 03
030200 1454N 06608W 6967 02900 9750 +106 +106 012104 106 082 028 03
030230 1454N 06610W 6971 02923 9778 +109 +109 012096 097 075 005 03
030300 1455N 06611W 6963 02940 9797 +106 +106 016094 095 078 003 03
030330 1456N 06611W 6967 02947 9797 +110 +110 020092 093 077 002 00
030400 1457N 06612W 6966 02958 9805 +109 +109 023091 092 076 005 00
030430 1458N 06613W 6967 02971 9820 +110 +110 027088 089 074 005 00
030500 1459N 06614W 6968 02982 9826 +115 +115 027085 088 074 001 00
030530 1500N 06615W 6966 02992 9844 +109 +109 031084 087 071 001 00
030600 1501N 06616W 6971 02994 9868 +100 +100 036089 089 071 004 00
030630 1502N 06617W 6964 03011 9874 +102 +102 039086 088 071 004 00
030700 1504N 06618W 6965 03020 9876 +109 +107 043083 084 070 003 00
030730 1505N 06619W 6971 03020 9890 +104 +104 044081 083 068 004 00
030800 1506N 06620W 6975 03024 9907 +098 +098 044077 078 065 006 00
030830 1507N 06621W 6960 03048 9921 +092 +092 046078 078 063 007 00
030900 1508N 06622W 6967 03048 9924 +094 +094 046077 078 063 004 00
030930 1509N 06623W 6969 03050 9932 +094 +088 047077 078 063 002 00
031000 1511N 06624W 6964 03061 9944 +092 +086 050078 079 062 001 00
$$

128kt highest on this run...no upgrade at this point.

[Javlin]

the models had Dean well north and east of this position. These same models were trending north of all of the islands and if there was going to be an impact, it was supposed to be tomorrow

that worked out quite well

If a 5 day forecast is pointing directly at you... it usually means that you will not get hit. Remember, the error on a 5 day is more than 300 miles

Link pretty muck supports Derrick in some instances but besides most models like to sling'em to the right the GFDL(14th?) started going left,in the W Carib.

[Extremeweatherguy]

--delete--

[Chris_in_Tampa]

956
URNT15 KNHC 180301
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 31 20070818
025030 1432N 06540W 6968 03049 9951 +078 +078 223061 062 050 004 00
025100 1433N 06541W 6963 03045 9942 +077 +077 222062 063 052 007 00
025130 1434N 06542W 6966 03033 9932 +076 +076 222063 064 054 008 00
025200 1436N 06544W 6968 03016 9926 +072 +072 220066 067 057 009 00
025230 1437N 06545W 6965 03010 9913 +072 +072 224067 068 060 032 03
025300 1438N 06546W 6966 02994 9901 +068 +068 230067 068 061 016 00
025330 1439N 06547W 6960 02982 9870 +077 +077 236068 069 065 010 03
025400 1440N 06548W 6974 02952 9835 +091 +091 239070 073 069 009 03
025430 1442N 06549W 6962 02937 9811 +084 +084 240074 077 075 007 00
025500 1443N 06550W 6968 02901 9749 +108 +108 242082 085 079 001 00
025530 1445N 06550W 6974 02845 9674 +128 +117 244091 096 087 032 00
025600 1447N 06551W 6968 02796 9584 +150 +119 243101 102 106 054 03
025630 1449N 06551W 6970 02701 9522 +122 +122 243109 117 108 016 03
025700 1450N 06552W 6920 02675 9417 +135 +133 230062 083 081 031 03
025730 1452N 06553W 6986 02572 9344 +193 +103 212023 031 041 003 03
025800 1453N 06554W 6964 02591 9328 +195 +094 216006 011 027 001 03
025830 1453N 06556W 6970 02579 9327 +196 +090 014006 012 027 001 00
025900 1454N 06558W 6962 02598 9377 +173 +096 014023 032 045 003 03
025930 1454N 06600W 6974 02608 9401 +148 +130 359056 070 110 010 03
030000 1454N 06601W 6960 02668 9990 +110 +999 355083 088 122 013 05
$$

933mb extrapolated...

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 03:01Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 31
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
02:50:30 14.53N 65.67W 696.8 mb 3,049 m 995.1 mb From 223° (SW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 50 kts 4 mm/hr
02:51:00 14.55N 65.68W 696.3 mb 3,045 m 994.2 mb From 222° (SW) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 52 kts 7 mm/hr
02:51:30 14.57N 65.70W 696.6 mb 3,033 m 993.2 mb From 222° (SW) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 54 kts 8 mm/hr
02:52:00 14.60N 65.73W 696.8 mb 3,016 m 992.6 mb From 220° (SW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 57 kts 9 mm/hr
02:52:30 14.62N 65.75W 696.5 mb 3,010 m 991.3 mb From 224° (SW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 60 kts* 32 mm/hr*
02:53:00 14.63N 65.77W 696.6 mb 2,994 m 990.1 mb From 230° (SW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 61 kts 16 mm/hr
02:53:30 14.65N 65.78W 696.0 mb 2,982 m 987.0 mb From 236° (SW/WSW) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 65 kts* 10 mm/hr*
02:54:00 14.67N 65.80W 697.4 mb 2,952 m 983.5 mb From 239° (WSW) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 69 kts* 9 mm/hr*
02:54:30 14.70N 65.82W 696.2 mb 2,937 m 981.1 mb From 240° (WSW) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 75 kts 7 mm/hr
02:55:00 14.72N 65.83W 696.8 mb 2,901 m 974.9 mb From 242° (WSW) at 82 kts (94.3 mph) 85 kts (~ 97.7 mph) 79 kts 1 mm/hr
02:55:30 14.75N 65.83W 697.4 mb 2,845 m 967.4 mb From 244° (WSW) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 96 kts (~ 110.4 mph) 87 kts 32 mm/hr
02:56:00 14.78N 65.85W 696.8 mb 2,796 m 958.4 mb From 243° (WSW) at 101 kts (116.1 mph) 102 kts (~ 117.3 mph) 106 kts* 54 mm/hr*
02:56:30 14.82N 65.85W 697.0 mb 2,701 m 952.2 mb From 243° (WSW) at 109 kts (125.3 mph) 117 kts (~ 134.5 mph) 108 kts* 16 mm/hr*
02:57:00 14.83N 65.87W 692.0 mb 2,675 m 941.7 mb From 230° (SW) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 81 kts* 31 mm/hr*
02:57:30 14.87N 65.88W 698.6 mb 2,572 m 934.4 mb From 212° (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 41 kts* 3 mm/hr*
02:58:00 14.88N 65.90W 696.4 mb 2,591 m 932.8 mb From 216° (SW) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 11 kts (~ 12.6 mph) 27 kts* 1 mm/hr*
02:58:30 14.88N 65.93W 697.0 mb 2,579 m 932.7 mb From 14° (NNE) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) 27 kts 1 mm/hr
02:59:00 14.90N 65.97W 696.2 mb 2,598 m 937.7 mb From 14° (NNE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 45 kts* 3 mm/hr*
02:59:30 14.90N 66.00W 697.4 mb 2,608 m 940.1 mb From 359° (N) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 110 kts* 10 mm/hr*
03:00:00 14.90N 66.02W 696.0 mb 2,668 m - From 355° (N) at 83 kts (95.4 mph) 88 kts (~ 101.2 mph) 122 kts* 13 mm/hr*
At 02:50:30Z (first observation), the observation was 270 miles (434 km) to the S (174°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 03:00:00Z (last observation), the observation was 243 miles (391 km) to the S (179°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .00c-66.02

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

-----------------

352
URNT15 KNHC 180310
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 32 20070818
030030 1454N 06603W 6994 02709 9990 +090 +999 000119 127 121 046 05
030100 1454N 06605W 6954 02814 9990 +089 +999 005125 128 096 045 05
030130 1454N 06606W 6947 02877 9720 +087 +087 007110 114 091 038 03
030200 1454N 06608W 6967 02900 9750 +106 +106 012104 106 082 028 03
030230 1454N 06610W 6971 02923 9778 +109 +109 012096 097 075 005 03
030300 1455N 06611W 6963 02940 9797 +106 +106 016094 095 078 003 03
030330 1456N 06611W 6967 02947 9797 +110 +110 020092 093 077 002 00
030400 1457N 06612W 6966 02958 9805 +109 +109 023091 092 076 005 00
030430 1458N 06613W 6967 02971 9820 +110 +110 027088 089 074 005 00
030500 1459N 06614W 6968 02982 9826 +115 +115 027085 088 074 001 00
030530 1500N 06615W 6966 02992 9844 +109 +109 031084 087 071 001 00
030600 1501N 06616W 6971 02994 9868 +100 +100 036089 089 071 004 00
030630 1502N 06617W 6964 03011 9874 +102 +102 039086 088 071 004 00
030700 1504N 06618W 6965 03020 9876 +109 +107 043083 084 070 003 00
030730 1505N 06619W 6971 03020 9890 +104 +104 044081 083 068 004 00
030800 1506N 06620W 6975 03024 9907 +098 +098 044077 078 065 006 00
030830 1507N 06621W 6960 03048 9921 +092 +092 046078 078 063 007 00
030900 1508N 06622W 6967 03048 9924 +094 +094 046077 078 063 004 00
030930 1509N 06623W 6969 03050 9932 +094 +088 047077 078 063 002 00
031000 1511N 06624W 6964 03061 9944 +092 +086 050078 079 062 001 00
$$

128kt highest on this run...no upgrade at this point.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 03:10Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 32
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:00:30 14.90N 66.05W 699.4 mb 2,709 m - From 0° (N) at 119 kts (136.8 mph) 127 kts (~ 146.0 mph) 121 kts* 46 mm/hr*
03:01:00 14.90N 66.08W 695.4 mb 2,814 m - From 5° (N) at 125 kts (143.8 mph) 128 kts (~ 147.2 mph) 96 kts* 45 mm/hr*
03:01:30 14.90N 66.10W 694.7 mb 2,877 m 972.0 mb From 7° (N) at 110 kts (126.5 mph) 114 kts (~ 131.1 mph) 91 kts* 38 mm/hr*
03:02:00 14.90N 66.13W 696.7 mb 2,900 m 975.0 mb From 12° (NNE) at 104 kts (119.6 mph) 106 kts (~ 121.9 mph) 82 kts* 28 mm/hr*
03:02:30 14.90N 66.17W 697.1 mb 2,923 m 977.8 mb From 12° (NNE) at 96 kts (110.4 mph) 97 kts (~ 111.5 mph) 75 kts* 5 mm/hr*
03:03:00 14.92N 66.18W 696.3 mb 2,940 m 979.7 mb From 16° (NNE) at 94 kts (108.1 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) 78 kts* 3 mm/hr*
03:03:30 14.93N 66.18W 696.7 mb 2,947 m 979.7 mb From 20° (NNE) at 92 kts (105.8 mph) 93 kts (~ 106.9 mph) 77 kts 2 mm/hr
03:04:00 14.95N 66.20W 696.6 mb 2,958 m 980.5 mb From 23° (NNE) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 92 kts (~ 105.8 mph) 76 kts 5 mm/hr
03:04:30 14.97N 66.22W 696.7 mb 2,971 m 982.0 mb From 27° (NNE) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 89 kts (~ 102.3 mph) 74 kts 5 mm/hr
03:05:00 14.98N 66.23W 696.8 mb 2,982 m 982.6 mb From 27° (NNE) at 85 kts (97.7 mph) 88 kts (~ 101.2 mph) 74 kts 1 mm/hr
03:05:30 15.00N 66.25W 696.6 mb 2,992 m 984.4 mb From 31° (NNE) at 84 kts (96.6 mph) 87 kts (~ 100.0 mph) 71 kts 1 mm/hr
03:06:00 15.02N 66.27W 697.1 mb 2,994 m 986.8 mb From 36° (NE) at 89 kts (102.3 mph) 89 kts (~ 102.3 mph) 71 kts 4 mm/hr
03:06:30 15.03N 66.28W 696.4 mb 3,011 m 987.4 mb From 39° (NE) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 88 kts (~ 101.2 mph) 71 kts 4 mm/hr
03:07:00 15.07N 66.30W 696.5 mb 3,020 m 987.6 mb From 43° (NE) at 83 kts (95.4 mph) 84 kts (~ 96.6 mph) 70 kts 3 mm/hr
03:07:30 15.08N 66.32W 697.1 mb 3,020 m 989.0 mb From 44° (NE) at 81 kts (93.1 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 68 kts 4 mm/hr
03:08:00 15.10N 66.33W 697.5 mb 3,024 m 990.7 mb From 44° (NE) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 65 kts 6 mm/hr
03:08:30 15.12N 66.35W 696.0 mb 3,048 m 992.1 mb From 46° (NE) at 78 kts (89.7 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 63 kts 7 mm/hr
03:09:00 15.13N 66.37W 696.7 mb 3,048 m 992.4 mb From 46° (NE) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 63 kts 4 mm/hr
03:09:30 15.15N 66.38W 696.9 mb 3,050 m 993.2 mb From 47° (NE) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 63 kts 2 mm/hr
03:10:00 15.18N 66.40W 696.4 mb 3,061 m 994.4 mb From 50° (NE) at 78 kts (89.7 mph) 79 kts (~ 90.8 mph) 62 kts 1 mm/hr
At 03:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 243 miles (391 km) to the S (180°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 03:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 225 miles (362 km) to the S (186°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .38c-66.40

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[CronkPSU]

5 days ago advisory 1

[img=http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/9172/ad1mw5.th.gif]

What is your point? The current position of the hurricane is well within, if not right in the center, of the cone. I do agree that rarely does the hurricane actually hit were the 5 day cone is.[/quote]

Point is the very first cone was just abought dead on 5 days out. yes rare but there it is[/quote]
[/quote]


actually it will be barely outside the cone by 8 AM tomorrow morning and well it front of where it was suppose to be at 8 AM Sat