Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 261858
AF301 0313A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20070926
185100 2145N 09457W 9772 00291 0101 +236 +224 041010 010 999 999 03
185130 2146N 09458W 9772 00292 0102 +236 +218 041011 011 999 999 03
185200 2147N 09459W 9770 00295 0103 +236 +224 044011 011 999 999 03
185230 2148N 09501W 9762 00302 0103 +236 +218 046011 012 999 999 03
185300 2149N 09502W 9766 00300 0105 +236 +218 052012 012 999 999 03
185330 2151N 09503W 9773 00295 0107 +236 +222 052011 012 999 999 03
185400 2152N 09504W 9771 00297 0107 +236 +216 048011 011 999 999 03
185430 2153N 09506W 9771 00297 0107 +236 +222 049012 012 999 999 03
185500 2155N 09507W 9771 00298 0108 +236 +224 048012 012 999 999 03
185530 2156N 09508W 9771 00298 0108 +238 +224 051011 011 999 999 03
185600 2157N 09510W 9771 00298 0107 +240 +228 051012 012 999 999 03
185630 2159N 09511W 9771 00299 0108 +240 +228 049012 013 999 999 03
185700 2200N 09512W 9772 00298 0109 +240 +226 051013 013 999 999 03
185730 2201N 09514W 9771 00299 0109 +240 +226 049012 013 999 999 03
185800 2203N 09515W 9771 00299 0109 +240 +226 051013 014 999 999 03
185830 2204N 09516W 9772 00298 0109 +240 +224 050012 013 999 999 03
185900 2206N 09518W 9771 00300 0110 +240 +224 050012 012 999 999 03
185930 2207N 09519W 9770 00301 0110 +240 +224 048013 014 999 999 03
190000 2208N 09520W 9772 00300 0111 +240 +226 043013 014 999 999 03
190030 2210N 09521W 9771 00301 0111 +240 +226 042013 013 999 999 03

[wxman57]

26/1745 UTC 21.1N 94.5W T2.5/2.5 13L -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak can say it LOOKS like a TS, but recon says no FL winds over 30 kts. Certainly looks like the upper low to the west has moved out and outflow is improving. Will probably be a TS by tomorrow then move inland Friday morning.

[HenkL]

URNT11 KNHC 261911
97779 19104 41226 95800 03000 99005 24222 /0012
40310
RMK AF301 0313A CYCLONE OB 11


URNT15 KNHC 261908
AF301 0313A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20070926
190100 2211N 09523W 9771 00301 0111 +240 +222 048013 013 999 999 03
190130 2212N 09524W 9771 00301 0111 +242 +222 051013 013 999 999 03
190200 2214N 09525W 9772 00301 0112 +240 +226 046012 012 999 999 03
190230 2215N 09527W 9772 00301 0112 +240 +226 045012 013 999 999 03
190300 2216N 09528W 9771 00303 0113 +240 +226 044010 011 999 999 03
190330 2218N 09529W 9771 00303 0113 +240 +224 045011 011 999 999 03
190400 2219N 09531W 9771 00303 0113 +240 +222 045010 011 999 999 03
190430 2220N 09532W 9771 00304 0114 +240 +222 040010 010 999 999 03
190500 2222N 09533W 9771 00304 0114 +240 +224 037009 010 999 999 03
190530 2223N 09535W 9771 00304 0114 +240 +224 036009 010 999 999 03
190600 2224N 09536W 9771 00304 0114 +240 +224 030009 009 999 999 03
190630 2225N 09537W 9772 00302 0113 +242 +222 027009 009 999 999 03
190700 2227N 09539W 9770 00305 0114 +240 +226 034010 010 999 999 03
190730 2228N 09540W 9771 00304 0114 +240 +230 038009 009 999 999 03
190800 2229N 09541W 9771 00304 0114 +242 +228 034010 010 999 999 03
190830 2231N 09542W 9772 00303 0114 +240 +226 034010 010 999 999 03
190900 2232N 09544W 9770 00306 0115 +240 +226 030010 011 999 999 03
190930 2233N 09545W 9772 00304 0116 +240 +222 029009 010 999 999 03
191000 2235N 09546W 9771 00305 0115 +242 +216 029009 009 999 999 03
191030 2236N 09548W 9771 00305 0115 +242 +216 025008 009 999 999 03

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 261918
AF301 0313A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20070926
191100 2237N 09549W 9772 00304 0116 +240 +224 025007 008 999 999 03
191130 2239N 09550W 9720 00351 0115 +238 +224 024006 008 999 999 03
191200 2240N 09549W 9465 00579 0110 +224 +198 035005 006 999 999 03
191230 2242N 09547W 9146 00887 0122 +206 +182 060007 008 999 999 03
191300 2243N 09546W 8791 01229 0122 +186 +166 053009 009 999 999 03
191330 2245N 09545W 8433 01585 0120 +168 +148 057010 011 999 999 03
191400 2246N 09543W 8101 01929 0120 +150 +128 061010 010 999 999 03
191430 2248N 09542W 7797 02254 0119 +134 +112 078008 009 999 999 03
191500 2249N 09541W 7510 02569 0115 +118 +094 073010 012 999 999 03
191530 2251N 09539W 7239 02880 0110 +108 +068 072014 015 999 999 03
191600 2253N 09538W 7105 03038 0116 +096 +060 075014 014 999 999 03
191630 2254N 09537W 7104 03041 0118 +096 +060 069015 015 999 999 03
191700 2256N 09535W 7106 03039 0118 +096 +062 067015 016 999 999 03
191730 2258N 09534W 7099 03046 0114 +098 +062 067016 017 999 999 03
191800 2259N 09532W 6985 03182 0118 +088 +058 068016 017 999 999 03
191830 2301N 09531W 6782 03432 0120 +076 +040 068014 014 999 999 03
191900 2303N 09530W 6533 03743 0116 +062 +024 064017 018 999 999 03
191930 2304N 09528W 6269 04084 0106 +050 +008 060018 019 999 999 03
192000 2306N 09527W 6099 04310 0110 +034 -001 060017 018 999 999 03
192030 2307N 09526W 5942 04494 0077 +022 -009 064018 018 999 999 03

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 261931
AF301 0313A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20070926
192100 2309N 09524W 5787 04704 0074 +008 -013 061019 019 999 999 03
192130 2310N 09523W 5649 04902 0075 -001 -043 070020 021 999 999 03
192200 2312N 09522W 5523 05094 0085 -011 -053 076021 021 999 999 03
192230 2314N 09520W 5401 05275 0275 -019 -077 071019 020 999 999 03
192300 2315N 09519W 5288 05446 0287 -029 -079 067019 019 999 999 03
192330 2317N 09518W 5184 05605 0299 -039 -095 064018 018 999 999 03
192400 2319N 09516W 5079 05768 0310 -047 -123 061019 020 999 999 03
192430 2320N 09515W 4983 05919 0320 -053 -151 061020 020 999 999 03
192500 2322N 09514W 4892 06064 0330 -061 -165 064020 021 999 999 03
192530 2324N 09512W 4817 06185 0337 -065 -193 067020 020 999 999 03
192600 2326N 09511W 4738 06317 0348 -073 -209 066020 020 999 999 03
192630 2327N 09509W 4672 06428 0357 -079 -205 061023 024 999 999 03
192700 2329N 09508W 4653 06462 0361 -081 -203 058023 023 999 999 03
192730 2331N 09506W 4653 06463 0363 -081 -219 057023 023 999 999 03
192800 2333N 09505W 4655 06461 0363 -077 -223 057023 023 999 999 03
192830 2335N 09503W 4656 06461 0365 -077 -219 058023 023 999 999 03
192900 2337N 09501W 4656 06461 0366 -079 -207 062021 022 999 999 03
192930 2339N 09500W 4654 06465 0366 -081 -181 063020 020 999 999 03
193000 2341N 09458W 4656 06463 0367 -081 -193 062020 021 999 999 03
193030 2343N 09456W 4655 06465 0367 -081 -195 062021 021 999 999 03

Plane ascended, mission done.

[srainhoutx]

13 NONAME up on Navy Site at this time...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Brent]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
2100 UTC WED SEP 26 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 94.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 94.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 94.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.2N 94.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.9N 95.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 95.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 96.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 94.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



696
WTNT33 KNHC 262032
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
400 PM CDT WED SEP 26 2007

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT
225 MILES...365 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A
SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...21.3 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
500 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

THE CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH DISTINCT BANDING
FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE BOTH AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...LOOKS CAN
BE DECEIVING...AND RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A GENEROUS
ESTIMATE SINCE THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE ONLY 29 KT.
GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...DECREASING SHEAR...AND VERY
WARM WATERS...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS MEANDERING OR MAY BE
EXECUTING A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD GRADUALLY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY STEER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD THE COAST
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREMMENT. THE
U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL TRACK IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
SUITE WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE COAST IN ABOUT 66
HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM MEANDERING OFFSHORE AND
WEAKENS IT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...IN CONTRAST TO THE MUCH SLOWER ECMWF
WHICH DOES NOT SHOW THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COASTLINE UNTIL NEARLY
84 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE
VARIOUS OBJECTIVE TRACKS.

THE MEANDERING MOTION DELAYS THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO A LITTLE MORE...BUT THE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 21.3N 94.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 21.2N 94.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 20.9N 95.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 20.7N 95.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 96.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 29/1800Z 20.2N 97.8W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[jasons2k]

The pieces are all in place now. It's only a matter of time (a short one IMO) and we'll have Lorenzo. I suspect the next recon flight will produce a much different result. I think they just caught TD#13 on a siesta.

[webbcomm]

Question,,,

Does anyone know how long the high protecting the Texas & Louisiana Gulf coast is going to hold?

[greg_kfdm_tv]

Question,,,

Does anyone know how long the high protecting the Texas & Louisiana Gulf coast is going to hold?

The ridge should hold into at least the middle of next week. Also, strong upper level winds should continue from Texas to Florida which would shred any system which might move toward the coast.

[webbcomm]

Thanks,, all that activity has me a bit nervous for our little bayou

[americanrebel]

So when will we learn more from the RECON

[webbcomm]

All,

I ‘m sure this is not the correct place to post this question, so don’t eat me alive. I’m taking on a pet project to get our local school setup with a weather station. The ultimate goal is to get the children involved with meteorology and help educate them on the weather as a whole. Our children were severely affected by Hurricane Rita. I feel one way to ease some of the tension they feel during hurricane season would be to get them actively involved in weather watching. I have a 10 year old daughter and a 5 year old son that stay glued to the weather channel. I’d much rather they are educated so they don’t freak every time they see a swirl in the Atlantic.

Any info would be greatly appreciated. You can contact me offline at tracey.webb@webbcomm.net

Thanks!

[mightyerick]

Looks like it is going to nowhere. I wonder if this thingy even gets named.

[Derek Ortt]

if there is not an improvement in the low level convergence, the center will just dissipate. Does not matter if yo have good upper level support of there is nothing at the surface

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

[wxman57]

Convection still lacking. I think I see a WSW-W movement now. It's just having a hard time getting going. Might reach weak TS before landfall in about 36 hours, but I doubt 55kts.

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing at the surface to drive the convection it seems.

not sure why there is not any low-level convergence... this is seldom a problem in the BOC

[Buck]

there is nothing at the surface to drive the convection it seems.

not sure why there is not any low-level convergence... this is seldom a problem in the BOC

You're right. Usually when conditions are at least this favorable, systems explode in the BOC.

[CrazyC83]

If there is one ominous sign, it is that recent history shows that most of the monsters (Felix a notable exception) seemed to struggle at first before taking off.

I remember when Rita was a 60 kt TS for like 24 hours before turbocharging, and Wilma was TD24 for seemingly forever...also Dean was pretty slow to get started.

It also somewhat reminds me of Opal in her early days...

[Sanibel]

Reminds me of Larry that got driven south and never really got strong.