CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[PTPatrick]

Link to NOGAPS?

And(not that it truly matters because they suck) why the shift south with BAMM...are they just a day late and a dollar short? And...IS CMC is serious crack?

[fasterdisaster]

All I can say is that the dry air core is preventing Dean from moving poleward. The farther west he goes, the less likely he will go north and east of what the models are predicting at this time. Do the science and be reasonable. Never base your conclusions on supernatural beliefs. Thank you

Uh...what are you talking about?

1. Dean has stopped moving due west, that was a wobble only
2. Nobody is basing anything on supernatural beliefs. In fact I don't even know of any supernatural beliefs that would affect one's forecast of a hurricane
3. One could also say the ULL will prevent Dean from moving into Mexico with it being no less set in stone or scientific than your forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

Vortex confirms 930mb and 138 kt FL. It is wait and see. Anyway, I expect a Cat 5 sometime soon if it isn't already.

as well as the 154kt FL outbound

[mempho]

050400 1507N 06627W 6971 02758 9990 +082 +999 089150 154 121 034 05


90% reduction.... surface winds 159 to 161 mph

lets see .. NHC should upgrade

Category 5:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dean_%282007%29

[fasterdisaster]

They'll probably put it to 155MPH with the pressure, but it won't matter since it will be Category 5 at the 5 AM anyway.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In strength this is as strong if not slightly stronger the Emily of 2005. It maybe one mph flight level stronger. I think its a soild cat5.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Link to NOGAPS?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=120

The 12z had it skimming the very southern end of the BOC and then diving back SW toward the Pacific. The 0z though now moves it more into the central BOC.

[Stratosphere747]

GFDL will probably shift south a bit. Near Corpus.

[Extremeweatherguy]

And(not that it truly matters because they suck) why the shift south with BAMM...are they just a day late and a dollar short? And...IS CMC is serious crack?

The BAM models are typically not considered that great with track. None the less, they are looked at and are a part of the overall model scheme. The 0z run of the BAMs came out earlier though..around 8:30. They very well could shift again at 6z or 12z. We'll see.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Link to NOGAPS?

And(not that it truly matters because they suck) why the shift south with BAMM...are they just a day late and a dollar short? And...IS CMC is serious crack?

Go to above NOGAPs link and change 72 to 120 or 132. Nogaps actually looks to turn South of due West in BOC.

[CrazyC83]

050400 1507N 06627W 6971 02758 9990 +082 +999 089150 154 121 034 05


90% reduction.... surface winds 159 to 161 mph

lets see .. NHC should upgrade

Category 5:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dean_%282007%29

Not quite yet. It was reverted.

[hurricanefloyd5]

What dose the models show as of the ULL moving across florida and how will the ULL affect HurricaneDean(Mean Dean)????

[shelby]

GFDL will probably shift south a bit. Near Corpus.

That is scary for texas

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest GFDL out...



...hit just north of Matagorda. Pretty similar to the 18z GFDL.

BTW: The NOGAPS run on this image is old.

[PTPatrick]

actually...I cant really recall nogaps ever really nailing anything either. Seems like it is always one of the latest to come into agreement.

[Hurricane Cheese]

All I can say is that the dry air core is preventing Dean from moving poleward. The farther west he goes, the less likely he will go north and east of what the models are predicting at this time. Do the science and be reasonable. Never base your conclusions on supernatural beliefs. Thank you

Dry air core's don't prevent hurricanes from moving poleward. High pressure ridges do, although I assume that's what you meant.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New vortex message- even stronger!

[RL3AO]

050400 1507N 06627W 6971 02758 9990 +082 +999 089150 154 121 034 05


90% reduction.... surface winds 159 to 161 mph

lets see .. NHC should upgrade

Category 5:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dean_%282007%29

Thank you for pointing that out...I reverted it.

[HouTXmetro]

with Deans movement tonight, I just don't see the GFDL verifying that far north. We shall see.

[Air Force Met]

All I can say is that the dry air core is preventing Dean from moving poleward. The farther west he goes, the less likely he will go north and east of what the models are predicting at this time. Do the science and be reasonable. Never base your conclusions on supernatural beliefs. Thank you

Huh?

1 - All I can say is that the dry air core is preventing Dean from moving poleward: What are you talking about?
2 - The farther west he goes, the less likely he will go north and east of what the models are predicting at this time: Well...that's only logical...
3 - Do the science and be reasonable. Never base your conclusions on supernatural beliefs: My bum left knee and arthritis says your full of it.