OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[tolakram]

Olga is definitely dying (or rather, dead), but I have to admit, Wxman's arrogance is fairly annoying.

You remind me of someone else. How about you respect a blues opinion and offer your own data IF you have a reasoned argument, otherwise keep quiet. Is that really too much to ask? Fight the forecast, not the forecaster.

[Evil Jeremy]

Olga is still organized and convection is fireing in the SW quad.

The shear really isn't doing much, and now that the system is re-organizing, I don't think Olga is dead yet, contrary to what others think.

[cycloneye]

She will be downgraded at 4 PM EST.I think is time to let her go to a steady death.

[HURAKAN]

There she is but dying.

[Blown Away]

Still not impressive, but the LLC looks better than it has all day on the last clip of the visible, plus a convective burst on the SW corner.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Looks better on the IR to: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't understand why you guys say she is dying. Convection is starting to build up around the center again!

[tolakram]

I don't understand why you guys say she is dying. Convection is starting to build up around the center again!

I see where you are coming from, but the convection isn't that strong yet. I'm waiting to see if it persists and what the shear looks like once the tops get high enough to hit it.



A couple of thunderstorms near the center doesn't mean much in my opinion.

I think the shear tendency is also interesting.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

It's been dropping steadily.

-- these are just observations, I'm not forecasting anything.

[wxman57]

I don't understand why you guys say she is dying. Convection is starting to build up around the center again!

It has a few showers southwest of the exposed low-level swirl. That's about it. There is no longer any deep convection. The low-level swirl is moving to the WSW (250 deg) at 17 kts, separating itself farther from any significant convection. Wind shear is killing it. Give it up, Jeremy. It's not going to regenerate. Time to put out the final advisory (for me).

[Evil Jeremy]

Hopefully that strong outer band comes our way here in SFL!

[Blown Away]

Well defined LLC.
Small convective bursts around LLC.
Looks better now than it did this morning.
Nobody says Olga will explode with development just posting observations.

[JonathanBelles]

I think there will be very slow weakening, however it is holding its own, still weakening though.

[tolakram]

Rainbow loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

It will be interesting to look back this evening and see how Olga either fell apart or made a modest comeback.

[wxman57]

I think there will be very slow weakening, however it is holding its own, still weakening though.

These low-level srwirls can persist for days even under a high-shear environment. Most likely, it'll open up tonight and dissipate, though. I haven't observed any TS force winds since last evening. Lots of ships north and northeast of the center all reporting from 15-25 kts.

[Derek Ortt]

trhat convection is so intense that it stretches about a whole 4,000 feet into the atmosphere

[Squarethecircle]

Persons like wxman57 are the ones that don't allow unprofessional opinions to rule the forum. Without Derek, wxman57, and all the others pros, the forum would go crazy and wouldn't serve the purpose of providing the best and latest information.

I am not denying the usefulness of the forecasters, nor arguing their forecasts. I am noting that there seems to be a certain sense of arrogance about them*. I do not wish to say that they are not a very welcome addition to the forum, because, at least from what I can tell, they are.

Convection is a little better, and the storm looks a little better as a whole, but not enough to think that it will survive as far west as the Yucatan.





*Note that I realize this may be somewhat hypocritical because I fully recognize that I myself have an arrogant streak.

[cpdaman]

a sincere question

if people think the storm is dead for good , why are they still watching it?

is it because, like in a episode of friday the 13'th, one never knows if "it's dead finally"?

or because the computer models have failed before?

nothing better to do? don't have a choice?

honestly i'm bored (just got back from beach) and weather is a hobby and i have nothing better to do than watch some tv, open a few "windows" and keep track till i go back in to work.

and yes it looks paltry, but better than at 10 am IMO, and i heard a certain model of two (not canadian) has this as a hurricane on the N. honduras coast on sunday

[Squarethecircle]

a sincere question

if people think the storm is dead for good , why are they still watching it?

is it because, like in a episode of friday the 13'th, one never knows if "it's dead finally"?

or because the computer models have failed before?

nothing better to do? don't have a choice?

honestly i'm bored (just got back from beach) and weather is a hobby and i have nothing better to do than watch some tv, open a few "windows" and keep track till i go back in to work.

and yes it looks paltry, but better than at 10 am IMO

Those seem like good reasons, yeah, although the fifth one is kind of strange. It is marginally better than earlier, but it is likely to die soon. This happens sometimes, almost like the epilogue or falling action of the story; you're not finished with the book until you've actually read the last page.


And the HWRF and GFDL are no longer forecasting any kind of strong storm or whatever.

[wxman57]

I watch it because I have to. I'm the lead hurricane forecaster and we have clients expecting to be kept informed. Otherwise, I wouldn't have been working for 7 straight shifts with only a short nap betwen 11pm-3am the past two nights.

Go away, Olga!

a sincere question

if people think the storm is dead for good , why are they still watching it?

is it because, like in a episode of friday the 13'th, one never knows if "it's dead finally"?

or because the computer models have failed before?

nothing better to do? don't have a choice?

honestly i'm bored (just got back from beach) and weather is a hobby and i have nothing better to do than watch some tv, open a few "windows" and keep track till i go back in to work.

and yes it looks paltry, but better than at 10 am IMO, and i heard a certain model of two (not canadian) has this as a hurricane on the N. honduras coast on sunday

[Brent]

trhat convection is so intense that it stretches about a whole 4,000 feet into the atmosphere

[Frank2]

I mentioned this here a year or more ago, but, it's worth repeating - back in the El Nino of the early-mid '80s, a TS became a well-sheared swirl (similar to today's), but, the NHC kept it as a TS until we heard what the recon noted in the remarks section of their last ob:

WATER SKIERS BEHIND TOW BOAT OBSERVED IN CENTER

needless to say, the system was downgraded on the next advisory...

LOL