INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[ncupsscweather]

Okay this is a different type model then what i have seen in the past. It's from GFDL

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 5d#a_topad

[Stratosphere747]

Take a good look guys--this is how it looks at the diurnal minimum--just wait 12 hours and then see how it looks...
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
This is a potentially VERY dangerous storm for some people on the Texas coast.
The center is reforming at 24.7N. That is very bad news for Houston-Galveston/Port O'Connor.

Thanks for leaving me out.....

Lets be cautious here before declaring this a potentially VERY dangerous storm. Another 8hrs or so and we can revisit this possibility. I've been there done that quite a few times. It is intriguing and no question we are all keeping a good eye on it.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Take a good look guys--this is how it looks at the diurnal minimum--just wait 12 hours and then see how it looks...
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
This is a potentially VERY dangerous storm for some people on the Texas coast.
The center is reforming at 24.7N. That is very bad news for Houston-Galveston/Port O'Connor.

so it could be stronger then alicia? wasn't alicia high end cat.2 borderline 3?

[jasons2k]

This is a wonderfully contrasted image from GOES Project Science.

That is gorgeous! Some day I hope we can get all images of that quality.

[Kludge]

IMO this system is about to "gel". You can see the banding of the low level cumulus clouds on the visibles swirling towards the LLC near 23N 90W. The old LLC from earlier today is gone, and the new one looks like it has good inflow. There is a burst of convection very near the LLC expanding over time, and this is the diurnal minimum. The cirrus shield is becoming more circular and symmetrical; an indication that shear is relaxing and outflow is becoming established. It looks to me like this system is starting to stack vertically. In summary, I think it's finally show time for 9IL and I expect an upgrade at any time with continued intensification until landfall somewhere on the TX coast on Thursday.

I agree, Jason... I think the ULL is just now getting far enough away to allow the stacking can begin in earnest. Like an earlier poster, I'm afraid that the lack of LLC findings by the recon may cause everyone to relax this evening, and then awake to a healthy Erin bearing down on us.

[Yankeegirl]

Frank B. of Ch. 2 just mentioned "we could go to bed tonight and wake up tomorrow with a tropical storm" and that we need to keep an eye on it, and there might be some watches up and down the texas gulf coast... He is also mentioning that there might be 3-5 inches of rain with this and potentially more as we get closer to the end of the week. He has also upped his chances of rain here to 70% for thursday...I definately think that he is onto something, and he told the public in a good way (this time) without freaking everone out and sending them to Walmart to get batteries and milk. My opinion from the begining, I think its going to be a Texas storm, maybe somewhere between corpus and galveston...I do expect some types of advisories tomorrow afternoon for the texas coast...

[tropicwatch]

The last visible loop I looked at, made it look like the low level low was moving under convection. I would not be suprised to see TD 5 by this evening.

[ROCK]

You know those guys will be up all night for sure. I feel badly for Wx57. I am sure he is pulling a all nighter also....

[Extremeweatherguy]

this is looking GOOD right now. I would be surprised if this is not a TD by the 11pm update:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[ROCK]

just alittle more consolidation and you might be right.

[Aric Dunn]

this is looking GOOD right now. I would be surprised if this is not a TD by the 11pm update:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

dont be fooled .. although the satellite appearance looks good ..

the surface circ is still not well defined

[RL3AO]

Recon is making another run towards the center.

[PTrackerLA]

wrong thread, delete

[Normandy]

^Talking about 91L? Very very little chance of this affecting S LA.
EDIT yea figured lol


Anyways, they have to investigate that convection, I suspect something is going on underneath it all.

[lrak]

This is a wonderfully contrasted image from GOES Project Science.

That is nice.

[Extremeweatherguy]

^Talking about 91L? Very very little chance of this affecting S LA.
EDIT yea figured lol


Anyways, they have to investigate that convection, I suspect something is going on underneath it all.

I agree. IMO, that is the place something will form...they should investigate it.

[Brent]

Didn't Alicia blow up really fast?

This is not good with nighttime approaching, people not paying attention and the diurnal maximum.

[RL3AO]

26 kt FL wind 75 mi NW of the LLC.

[Praxus]

Looking pretty scary sitting in the middle of the Gulf like that.

Also the closer view reveals a spot of brown in the center of the convection - getting worse, that's for sure.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm thinking people might wake up and we will already be getting some storms from the outer bands. Most don't know there is something approaching.