OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[whereverwx]

Image

[tolakram]

Convection still on the increase. Anyone have a link to on observation station on the north side of Jamaica?

[gatorcane]

here is an image showing the increased convection on the SW side...its something to note for sure. In addition the center has definitely become more defined. I think its trying to organizing but soon it should be running into a wall of shear.

[artist]

Olga does seem to want just a litttle (forgot the word more) spotlight time!

[HURAKAN]

A remnant low pressure system doesn't qualify as a tropical cyclone. PERIOD.

[Squarethecircle]

What's interesting about this is that it actually looks kinda like a Med-TC, but there are no storms in the Mediterranean to create remnant lows. I think the reason this is exciting is because it's December, when random convection is interesting regardless of whether it's association with a storm or not.

[P.K.]

WTNT42 KNHC 122027
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z DID NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. OLGA HAS
BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 06Z...AND HAS BEEN
UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...AND SO WE'LL HANG ON TO IT...AGAIN...JUST A LITTLE BIT
LONGER. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OLGA IS VERY DRY...AND THE
LONG-ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BECOMING APPARENT OVER THE
CENTER. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
IF OLGA HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 18.9N 76.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.1N 79.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.4N 82.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.9N 84.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1800Z 20.4N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

[wxman57]

Convection still on the increase. Anyone have a link to on observation station on the north side of Jamaica?

Montego Bay (NW side of island 85 miles WSW of center:
MKJS| |122000|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|360|005|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|
MKJS| |121900|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|350|006|000|2147483647.00|999|FEW|
MKJS| |121800|82.0F|75.0F|79.0%|010|007|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|

Northerly winds 5-10 kts at Montego Bay on the west side of the swirl.

Kingston (60 miles due south of center)
MKJP| |122000|80.0F|68.0F|65.6%|060|003|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
MKJP| |121900|78.0F|68.0F|69.6%|360|010|000|2147483647.00|999|BKN|
MKJP| |121800|82.0F|66.0F|58.2%|180|003|000|2147483647.00|999|SCT|

Just 5-10 kts, and winds varying between north and east northeast 60 miles southeast of the center. Not much of an LLC.

[wxman57]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
2100 UTC WED DEC 12 2007

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 76.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT

[gatorcane]

Looks like it has slowed down some to me...

I'm thinking 265 at 15 mph now.

[tailgater]

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif
Radar shows a increase in convection over the last 8 hrs.
Not a forecast just saying what I'm seeing. Despite the forecast of increased shear and dry air and no LLC anymore it looks better than it did 6to 8 hrs. ago

[RL3AO]

Somehow not the last advisory.

[gatorcane]

http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif
Radar shows a increase in convection over the last 8 hrs.
Not a forecast just saying what I'm seeing. Despite the forecast of increased shear and dry air and no LLC anymore it looks better than it did 6to 8 hrs. ago

NHC also noticed this convection and made a note....however also noting increased NW wind shear which should put an end to this....

[Blown Away]

Convection building on the SW and NE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[CrazyC83]

That looks very much like a circulation to me (kinda looks like an eye)...just not much convection.

[brunota2003]

Yes, I agree that this thing looks A LOT better than it did this morning, and some type of circulation is evident. However, from what I have seen, there is no surface circulation (could be, but it seems the forward speed is faster than any of the west winds it may have, thus no ciruclation...) and convection has been nill over the past several hours.

Remember, even remenant lows do fire off sporatic convection while they are winding down, and IMO, it seems that Olga is doing just that. It is possible that the current convection sustains itself and helps refire the LLC, bringing itself back together, but I personally believe all that is happening right now is Olga gasping for air in a waterlogged pocket.

The next few hours will tell the tale...I believe it is a remenant low already, and has been for most of the day (based on obs and convection totals).

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 DEC 2007 Time : 194500 UTC
Lat : 19:08:02 N Lon : 76:34:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1011.4mb/ 26.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 1.6 2.0 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +16.2C Cloud Region Temp : 1.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.56^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Trending towards intensification?

[Evil Jeremy]

Does the Durinal Minimum still have an effect in December?

[gatorcane]

Yes, I agree that this thing looks A LOT better than it did this morning, and some type of circulation is evident. However, from what I have seen, there is no surface circulation (could be, but it seems the forward speed is faster than any of the west winds it may have, thus no ciruclation...) and convection has been nill over the past several hours.

Remember, even remenant lows do fire off sporatic convection while they are winding down, and IMO, it seems that Olga is doing just that. It is possible that the current convection sustains itself and helps refire the LLC, bringing itself back together, but I personally believe all that is happening right now is Olga gasping for air in a waterlogged pocket.

The next few hours will tell the tale...I believe it is a remenant low already, and has been for most of the day (based on obs and convection totals).

convection has not bin "nil." Take a look at the latest

[Blown Away]

Looks like Olga is moving little S of due W now.