CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[theworld]

Quickstat pass last eve...

[Sabanic]

I've only been here this season, and I appreciate the Houston and SE Texas mets immensely. I consider myself a well informed amateur, have read lots of books, my wife even got me the Kocin/Uccellinni Northeast Snow Storm book for Christmas a few years back.

Now, I have a BS in Pet Engineering, and work as a petroleum engineer, and passed the FE test (aka EIT) in college, but never took the P&P exam, so I'm not a professional engineer.


I don't like the wobble North either, and Joe Bastardi has dropped references to one of the 1979 (David or Frederick, I don't remember) storms, that due to land interaction, cut straight across Hispaniola.

Of course, that would knock most of the stuffing out of Dean, but it would also put it into the Gulf way farther East than forecast. (And probably kill thousands in Haiti and the DR, so lets hope that isn't in the cards). Despite all that, last three days, Joe Bastardi says he thinks NHC forecast track has been very close to his own.

After crossing Cuba Frederic was downgraded to a weak TS, but by the time it made landfall on the AL/MS line it was the worst to ever hit Mobile, and is still the worse to date. Winds were sustained around 115-120.

[rockyman]

the ULL is centered over the Florida Keys this morning..but if I'm reading this correctly, the GFS 24 hours ago predicted that the ULL would be over central Florida by this time:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=024hr

could explain the unexpected northerly jog this AM

[msbee]

this is the web site for Jamaica radar.
I don't know how long it will stay up as dean approaches
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

[Cape Verde]

tolakram,

That is an awesome graphic!

[Derek Ortt]

EWRC appears to be started... awful timing

[Jagno]

ot: Just wanted to take this break to thank Chad and everyone for keeping this board running so smoothly considering the heavy traffic we've seen in here. Other boards generally experience massive overloads and problems with drastic increases in traffic and S2K has been performing perfectly so far. THANK YOU!

[weatherguru18]

I think it is total irresponsability for TWC or anybody else to call northern Mexico the landfall point. Clearly Dean has missed its 5am advisory position to the north. TWC and others are giving everybody esle along the gulf coast a false sense of security. My parents are gripping at me now because they went and bought water, batteries and gas cans.

This northern componant (which Steve Lyons spoke about himself just a little while ago) has continued for hours now. If I'm not mistaken the models including the gfs have shifted "way" north from what it was last night when it had it south of Tampico. The gfdl still is further north than all of them. This model has been fluctuating from north to south with every run. I'm not totally convinced that it will not go back north toward Houston.

[CrazyC83]

087
URNT15 KNHC 181441
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 25 20070818
143100 1418N 06951W 6967 03150 0059 +082 +082 313022 023 026 025 00
143130 1419N 06950W 6962 03155 0064 +078 +078 318022 023 026 068 00
143200 1420N 06949W 6969 03143 0064 +075 +075 315021 022 026 071 00
143230 1421N 06948W 6969 03144 0062 +078 +078 315023 024 026 068 00
143300 1423N 06946W 6967 03146 0061 +076 +076 314023 023 025 063 00
143330 1424N 06945W 6968 03142 0058 +076 +076 314022 022 026 066 00
143400 1425N 06944W 6965 03144 0050 +080 +080 316022 022 030 009 00
143430 1426N 06943W 6965 03144 0051 +081 +081 314020 021 027 061 00
143500 1428N 06941W 6968 03139 0049 +083 +083 310022 024 028 068 00
143530 1429N 06940W 6968 03138 0052 +078 +078 309025 025 031 016 00
143600 1430N 06939W 6968 03137 0055 +075 +075 310025 026 032 010 00
143630 1431N 06938W 6967 03137 0052 +076 +076 310022 023 032 009 00
143700 1433N 06936W 6967 03135 0047 +079 +079 315021 022 032 017 00
143730 1434N 06935W 6969 03131 0041 +080 +080 310022 023 032 008 00
143800 1435N 06934W 6965 03132 0041 +079 +079 308024 025 034 008 00
143830 1437N 06933W 6967 03130 0065 +062 +062 307024 026 038 048 03
143900 1438N 06931W 6969 03125 9990 +061 +999 310023 025 044 020 01
143930 1439N 06930W 6968 03127 9990 +057 +999 323030 032 044 021 05
144000 1440N 06929W 6963 03130 0051 +068 +068 321029 029 038 035 00
144030 1441N 06928W 6971 03120 0034 +080 +080 320030 031 033 008 00
$$

[srainhoutx]

ot: Just wanted to take this break to thank Chad and everyone for keeping this board running so smoothly considering the heavy traffic we've seen in here. Other boards generally experience massive overloads and problems with drastic increases in traffic and S2K has been performing perfectly so far. THANK YOU!

Good Job Chad.

[Derek Ortt]

have just put out the 11 a.m. update at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl042007.html

Jamaica now needs a warning, E Cuba needs a Hurricane Watch, along with the Caymans

[Steve Cosby]

EWRC appears to be started... awful timing

Why?


Thanks

[Ivanhater]

EWRC appears to be started... awful timing

HORRIBLE timing..if it is..it will likely be complete before landfall in Jamaica or southern Haiti

[rockyman]

According to the floater, Dean would need to turn almost due west to catch its next forecast point:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

(click Trop Fcst Pts box)

[Pebbles]

Just venting my concerns here for opinions but has anyone considered the tremendous storm surge that would result from this monster and how far coastal areas on the east side of Dean would be affected? Just going by all too recent memories of what the storm surge of Katrina did to Mississippi this has to be taken into consideration for folks.

This is an excellent question. Unfortunately it's really hard to make a real discussion on this one until after the storm actually enters the GOM. How and if the storm passes over land or through the channel is going to have impacts on any surge. I would definately ask this question again later.

[mutley]

EWRC appears to be started... awful timing

If you wouldn't mind answering. Can you briefly explain how you can tell?

[Ivanhater]

According to the floater, Dean would need to turn almost due west to catch its next forecast point:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

(click Trop Fcst Pts box)

Actually a little south of due west..

[rockyman]

Question: Does a more northerly track now mean a more northerly track later? Are there any other players on the map (other than the ULL) that could erode the Atlantic ridge or cause the ridge not to build back in behind the ULL?

[miamicanes177]

Repeating the 1100 am AST position...15.7 N...68.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150
mph. Minimum central pressure...929 mb.

[jhamps10]

I think it is total irresponsability for TWC or anybody else to call northern Mexico the landfall point. Clearly Dean has missed its 5am advisory position to the north. TWC and others are giving everybody esle along the gulf coast a false sense of security. My parents are gripping at me now because they went and bought water, batteries and gas cans.

This northern componant (which Steve Lyons spoke about himself just a little while ago) has continued for hours now. If I'm not mistaken the models including the gfs have shifted "way" north from what it was last night when it had it south of Tampico. The gfdl still is further north than all of them. This model has been fluctuating from north to south with every run. I'm not totally convinced that it will not go back north toward Houston.

u are totally right, I almost yelled at my tv a while ago when I heard that on TWC. Also if it hits yucatan, don't expect Cantore in the US for landfall either. since he's goin to Cancun for live reports tomorrow according to TWC.