Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Recon Discussion

[HURAKAN]

596
UZNT13 KNHC 052101
XXAA 55207 99295 70702 08090 99006 27418 35519 00057 26815 35520
92744 23231 01014 85482 21658 34016 70138 10456 30515 88999 77999
31313 09608 82025
61616 AF302 01GGA INVST OB 14
62626 SPL 2945N07022W 2029 MBL WND 36020 AEV 00000 DLM WND 34015
005730 WL150 35520 086 =
XXBB 55208 99295 70702 08090 00006 27418 11963 24003 22916 23448
33880 21644 44860 22058 55850 21658 66790 17450 77755 16260 88697
10056
21212 00006 35519 11964 00520 22925 01014 33897 34509 44890 32011
55875 32017 66850 34016 77835 34015 88816 31017 99756 32519 11697
30514
31313 09608 82025
61616 AF302 01GGA INVST OB 14
62626 SPL 2945N07022W 2029 MBL WND 36020 AEV 00000 DLM WND 34015
005730 WL150 35520 086 =

[WindRunner]

Wrong thread, Sandy, but good grab . . . I've already closed all my tabs so couldn't get both of them . . .

[wxman57]

Temperatures are warmer outside the center than in the center (23C vs. 24C inside, 9C vs. 10C inside). So it's warmer in the center than in the surrounding environment. Even if it was slightly subtropical, it would just confuse the public to call it an STD then have to change to TD tomorrow. What difference does it make if it's likely going to be a TS in 24 hours or less?

[CrazyC83]

Temperatures are warmer outside the center than in the center (23C vs. 24C inside, 9C vs. 10C inside). So it's warmer in the center than in the surrounding environment. Even if it was slightly subtropical, it would just confuse the public to call it an STD then have to change to TD tomorrow. What difference does it make if it's likely going to be a TS in 24 hours or less?

I agree, which is why I would currently classify it as Tropical Depression 7. Although it looks like the NHC is keeping it non-tropical for now...

[HURAKAN]

When should the next mission investigate 99L?

[RL3AO]

When should the next mission investigate 99L?

Takeoff at 10:15 am EDT.

[cycloneye]

When should the next mission investigate 99L?

A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02GGA INVEST
C. 06/1415Z
D. 28.6N 72.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tommorow with takeoff at 10:15 AM EDT.

[wxman57]

Temperatures are warmer outside the center than in the center (23C vs. 24C inside, 9C vs. 10C inside). So it's warmer in the center than in the surrounding environment. Even if it was slightly subtropical, it would just confuse the public to call it an STD then have to change to TD tomorrow. What difference does it make if it's likely going to be a TS in 24 hours or less?

I agree, which is why I would currently classify it as Tropical Depression 7. Although it looks like the NHC is keeping it non-tropical for now...

I just wish they'd DO SOMETHING! I've been working 10 days now at 10-15 hours per day. Was going to take a day off today if 99L hadn't flared up. Well, at least it's a real threat and not by Africa heading north.

[HenkL]

Next mission should start tomorrow 1415Z.

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, a tropical meteorologist shouldn't take the day off in September!!!

[chadtm80]

Before we find out if this gets upgraded this evening or not, thought it would be a good time to remind everyone of good old rule number 12..

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Can some one tell me what data shown that said that it is not a tropical cyclone. Thank you.

[miamicanes177]

Yes can someone please show us facts from recon which prove this is a not a tropical or subtropical depression? Jeff Masters is on record in his blog stating: "A QuikSCAT pass from 6:52am EDT showed that 99L has a vigorous closed circulation with top winds of 25-30 knots (30-35 mph), so in my book this system is already a subtropical depression."

[curtadams]

On these highly sheared systems it's possible to miss the warm core. I've seen vortexes show a flat profile and then 30 minutes later the cross-vortex has a 6 degree warmed core. Happened in Alberto, IIRC.

[hial2]

When should the next mission investigate 99L?

A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02GGA INVEST
C. 06/1415Z
D. 28.6N 72.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tommorow with takeoff at 10:15 AM EDT.

Below 29N??

[AJC3]

:uarrow: Yes can someone please show us facts from recon which prove this is a not a tropical or subtropical depression? Jeff Masters is on record in his blog stating: "A QuikSCAT pass from 6:52am EDT showed that 99L has a vigorous closed circulation with top winds of 25-30 knots (30-35 mph), so in my book this system is already a subtropical depression."

He also goes on to say "The reason I call it subtropical is because there is still clear evidence of a frontal boundary attached to 99L, evident as long band of clouds extending from the south side of the storm (Figure 2)."

This is, at best, a "curious" statement. Subtropical cyclones, by definition, are non-frontal!

[Ptarmigan]

I just wish they'd DO SOMETHING! I've been working 10 days now at 10-15 hours per day. Was going to take a day off today if 99L hadn't flared up. Well, at least it's a real threat and not by Africa heading north.

Talk about a busy day for you! I don't like the looks of this season either.

[pojo]

I just wish they'd DO SOMETHING! I've been working 10 days now at 10-15 hours per day. Was going to take a day off today if 99L hadn't flared up. Well, at least it's a real threat and not by Africa heading north.

Talk about a busy day for you! I don't like the looks of this season either.

wx.... you've been workin for 10 days 10-15hours.... try flying these storms and not able to take leave from 1 jun-30 nov.

[Chacor]

I just wish they'd DO SOMETHING! I've been working 10 days now at 10-15 hours per day. Was going to take a day off today if 99L hadn't flared up. Well, at least it's a real threat and not by Africa heading north.

Talk about a busy day for you! I don't like the looks of this season either.

wx.... you've been workin for 10 days 10-15hours.... try flying these storms and not able to take leave from 1 jun-30 nov.

To be fair, you can't really compare the two, they're different jobs, both of which require intense time and conviction to carry out. And full credit to both of you for doing these jobs, for which I have the highest respect.

[KWT]

Well recon is stil set to be flying into this system later today:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF FLORIDA- GEORGIA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 07/2100Z
B. AFXXX 02GGA INVEST
C. 07/1715Z
D. 30.0N 72.0W
E. 07/2030Z TO 08/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Only a few hours to wait till take-off!