Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[Ed Mahmoud]

In the last 30 years, inland flooding has been responsible for more than half the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the United States."
(Ed Rappaport, Deputy Director, NOAA National Hurricane Center)

Was the Lake Ponchartrain/New Orleans flooding considered inland flooding or storm surge flooding. It wasn't fresh water flooding, and it killed over a thousand people, If it is considered storm surge, I suspect it wipes out the inland flooding/half deaths statistic.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow...in very little time, the storm has become void of nearly all deep convection. It seems like just the fact that it was upgraded kinda turned it off...for the moment. Im noticing a few small bursts of convection very near to the center. The storm has swallowed a big gulp of dry air right now, but overnight i expect to see this worked out of its system. Tomorrow morning, i expect a big burst to start tomorrow, because ive noticed with developing systems, that when small bursts begin to form around a certain area all at once, it starts a chain reaction. On top of that, DMAX is around the corner and conditions are gradually improving.

[Derek Ortt]

katrina does not change the death ratio at all overall (but does in the USA), even though it was the surge that killed the vast majority of the people

Jeanne's rains caused far more deaths

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[Ed Mahmoud]

katrina does not change the death ratio at all overall (but does in the USA), even though it was the surge that killed the vast majority of the people

Jeanne's rains caused far more deaths

IIRC, most of Mitch's fatalities were fresh-water flooding and mudslides. I was just talking the US hurricane fatalities. I'm pretty sure Katrina has changed the ratio of fresh water to salt water drowning deaths.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Well defined LLC spotted at 30.2 north/73 west moving around 280 westward. Convection is trying to fire over it but its getting sheared some.

[fasterdisaster]

Shear is only going downhill, it may take a little longer, but the convection should prevail.

[ncbird]

In the last 30 years, inland flooding has been responsible for more than half the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the United States."
(Ed Rappaport, Deputy Director, NOAA National Hurricane Center)

Was the Lake Ponchartrain/New Orleans flooding considered inland flooding or storm surge flooding. It wasn't fresh water flooding, and it killed over a thousand people, If it is considered storm surge, I suspect it wipes out the inland flooding/half deaths statistic.

Sadly because of the large death toll from the flooding as a result of Katrina you are probably right. The stat of the quote as to "inland" flooding vrs storm surge deaths in the USA might be outdated now. What is not outdated is the fact that a majority of people will worry about dangers from the winds of tropical systems when its the flooding that causes most deaths.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I assume we are in the so called 'eclipse' for the satellites?

Because my floater refuses to refresh later than 0345Z

[Ed Mahmoud]

Relevant sections of HPC 0Z model discussion

SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AND WEAKER
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS
TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS.

POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS
PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE
WHERE THE NAM HAS ONE EARLY ON...BUT ALLOWS IT TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
AND DISSIPATE. ITS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...AND THERE IS BARELY ANY REFLECTION OF THE FEATURE IN
ITS SURFACE PATTERN. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITS WEAK
REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM BOTH IN ITS SURFACE AND 500 HPA HEIGHT
FIELDS.

snip...


SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...
THE GFS IS CLOSEST TO THE TPC TRACK...THOUGH IT WASHES THE SYSTEM
OUT AROUND 60 HOURS. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF BOGUSING
IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO THE TIMING OF ITS FIRST
ADVISORY...IT SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS DEPICT PER
THE TPC FORECAST AND ITS CURRENT CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE UPCOMING
06Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE A MORE REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE
SYSTEMS DEPTH FROM MONDAY MORNING ONWARD. SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES AND FORECASTS FROM TPC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS WEAKER THAN THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS THE MOST NORTHERLY. IF IT
DOES BECOME A TROPICAL LOW...IT SHOULD BE DIRECTED MORE WEST THAN
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE RIDGING TO ITS NORTH. WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER
GFS-LED CAMP HERE.

ROTH

[Coredesat]

I assume we are in the so called 'eclipse' for the satellites?

Because my floater refuses to refresh later than 0345Z

Yes, we are. The eclipse will end at around 0615 or so; some images may get posted on NRL earlier, but they'll be blurry.

[brunota2003]

Well, here are two stations that ought to become interesting over the next couple of days. The first station is Cape Lookout:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=CLKN7
The second one is 30 miles SE of New River Inlet:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41036
To check out more Eastern NC Weather Station Obs, go here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/obs.html

[Thunder44]

Satellite images after the eclispe show convection has increased around the center:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

You can also see the ULL moving further SW from the system. So this storm maybe doing more strengthening today:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

[Brent]

Definitely looks better than a few hours ago. I agree, there will be some strengthening today.

[DanKellFla]

Would a storm of these characteristics be named 20 years ago?

[Brent]

Would a storm of these characteristics be named 20 years ago?

Nope, they didn't start naming subtropical storms even until the last few years.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this thing keeps becoming better organized with convection close to the center, even a hundred years ago would of named it.

[Chacor]

If this thing keeps becoming better organized with convection close to the center, even a hundred years ago would of named it.

...Except for the fact that hurricanes weren't named until the 1950s.

[xironman]

Still subtropical

000
WTNT42 KNHC 080840
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GABRIELLE HAS IMPROVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS...
WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT GABRIELLE IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
T 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND ST 2.5/35-40 KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THIS...
GABRIELLE WILL REMAIN A SUBTROPICAL 40 KT STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS GABRIELLE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. GABRIELLE IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND
WEAKENS...GABRIELLE WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 GABRIELLE
SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED
STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this thing keeps becoming better organized with convection close to the center, even a hundred years ago would of named it.

...Except for the fact that hurricanes weren't named until the 1950s.

Your right, it would of been numbered.