Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

Steering currents suggest west. ECMWF says northern Mexico for the moisture. Unless it develops its own propulsion system, it's not going to Florida. Just more rain for us, probably, toward the end of the week.

[Sanibel]

It will have to separate out of that mess down there west of us.

[hial2]

09/0645 UTC 23.3N 86.7W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

You mean gulf of mexico

Isn't the GOM in the Atlantic Ocean!?!?!? Just a technicality.

Congrats on your promotion to mod,Hurakan! Well deserved..

In regards to GOM/Atlantic question...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Mexico

[Dean4Storms]

Just going to have to watch this and see what becomes of it for now. I'm not so sure the models have this right, heck most of them didn't see Felix coming and they certainly didn't see him as a Cat.5

Don't hang your forecast on the models with this right now.

[wzrgirl1]

I heard Dr. Lyons say also that it would come towards the Florida Panhandle but things change and time will tell if it develops

Yes heard that as well....sort of surprised me as I thought it would head in a more west direction

[canetracker]

I heard Dr. Lyons mention the panhandle as well.
The steering currents currently indicate a westerly type movement:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=
However, steering currents can change, as there is a trough of low pressure coming down.

Still think this is a matter of timing: How long does it take to organize and develop? Will it wait for conditions to become more favorable? Will it feel the pull of the trough coming down?
For now it looks like Western GOM is the best bet, however, there are too many factors to consider so I still am not convinced yet.

[ronjon]

I think Dr Lyons is looking at the GFS where it has some vorticity headed for the big bend area of FL. I think what may happen here is the mass of convection sorta of splits with convection heading N-NE with a MLC and perhaps a LLC headed off toward the TX coast.

[rockyman]

At the 9:50AM (CT) update, Dr Lyons once again said that this system should be moving "north"

[HollynLA]

At the 9:50AM (CT) update, Dr Lyons once again said that this system should be moving "north"

I heard him say the same thing but it still goes against all the models as of now.

[chadtm80]

[HURAKAN]

TWO 1130:

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

What I don't understand is why this system that has no potential in the forseable future was declared an invest while the Lesser Islands' disturbance that has potential for development in the next few days according to the TWO is not an invest.

[chadtm80]

90L now on homepage below Gabrielle section - http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php

[Zardoz]

What I don't understand is why this system that has no potential in the forseable future was declared an invest while the Lesser Islands' disturbance that has potential for development in the next few days according to the TWO is not an invest.

Proximity to the Gulf Coast, and the offshore oilfields.

The oil industry needs to have lots of advance notice. The NHC probably did this to get their full attention that there is a potential threat brewing, even though it may seem a bit remote right now.

[srainhoutx]

What I don't understand is why this system that has no potential in the forseable future was declared an invest while the Lesser Islands' disturbance that has potential for development in the next few days according to the TWO is not an invest.

Proximity to the Gulf Coast, and the offshore oilfields.

The oil industry needs to have lots of advance notice. The NHC probably did this to get their full attention that there is a potential threat brewing, even though it may seem a bit remote right now.

I would have to agree with this statement. As posted earlier, off shore leases need as much lead time as possible.

[rockyman]

Dr. Lyons once again at 10:50 (CT) update said that the trough axis should slide to the NORTH over the next couple of days.

[tailgater]

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this yet but there is a ULL developing to the west of 90L and it far enough away to give me concern. The ULL over the BOC is it a position that will probably form an Upper High over the SE GOM which would be favorable for this slow moving Invest.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Sanibel]

They're not calling that weird bubble of a naked spiral shooting out of the convection to its south the LLC are they?

[Frank P]

They're not calling that weird bubble of a naked spiral shooting out of the convection to its south the LLC are they?

if that swirl is at 24.8 and 89.0 they are... that hints of a possible LLC squirting out to the NW of the convection... shear blowing all the convention off to the SW... all the convection on this weak LLC is S and SW...

do about a 12 frame loop via the GOES vis sat presentation at high and fast motion

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[lrak]

Wow, is does look like a LLC has finally formed, is it heading West or toward Houston

Really though I do see the top of the swirl due to shear, it should continue West along with the ULL in front of it...or will the cold front move it staight up?