Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[canetracker]

Euro is close to what WxMan57 is saying. It will be interesting to see the 00z run.

[ROCK]

Euro is close to what WxMan57 is saying. It will be interesting to see the 00z run.

yeah...but I am not staying up to 2:30am central time for it......

[KatDaddy]

I am so dang tired ROCK. No way unless I wake during the night. I am gnashing teeth on this one. Suppose to fly out to Vegas on Saturday......dont want to think about putting up storm panels Saturday morning. We are leaving our daughter with friends until Wednesday. A hurricane will ruin everything......a huge mess.

[Cyclone1]

Euro is close to what WxMan57 is saying. It will be interesting to see the 00z run.

yeah...but I am not staying up to 2:30am central time for it......

Oh come on, true Storm2k members have become nocturnal at this point in the season.

[canetracker]

Euro is close to what WxMan57 is saying. It will be interesting to see the 00z run.

yeah...but I am not staying up to 2:30am central time for it......

I will not either....I have work in the morning. Will check it out in the AM. : ) Models do look to be trending west. Not to wishcast this on anyone, but I don't want this here.

[LarryWx]

[quote="Blown_away]
Center does not make it onshore in SFL for 24 hours per GFDL. WPB around 80W.[/quote]

This 18Z GFDL actually has the center making it onshore in central FL all the way up just north of Cape Canaveral at ~6 PM tomorrow (lat. 28.9 N). The 12Z run had it doing so ~80 miles further south near Ft. Pierce (lat 27.6 N). So, there was a northward shift on the FL east coast of 1.3 N lat. (~80 miles) since the 12Z GFDL run, which would bring NE FL more effects.

[ROCK]

I am so dang tired ROCK. No way unless I wake during the night. I am gnashing teeth on this one. Suppose to fly out to Vegas on Saturday......dont want to think about putting up storm panels Saturday morning. We are leaving our daughter with friends until Wednesday. A hurricane will ruin everything......a huge mess.

sorry to hear that bro....that would put a wrinkle in anyones plans for this weekend for sure.... give it a fews days then make a call.....

[perk]

I am so dang tired ROCK. No way unless I wake during the night. I am gnashing teeth on this one. Suppose to fly out to Vegas on Saturday......dont want to think about putting up storm panels Saturday morning. We are leaving our daughter with friends until Wednesday. A hurricane will ruin everything......a huge mess.

Yeah KatDaddy ......a huge mess it is. Good luck.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL Animation

Goes fairly strong in intensity.

[Blown Away]

18z GFDL Animation

Goes fairly strong in intensity.

So does it predict a TS before landfalling in FL?

[Derek Ortt]

discount the GFDL... it is on crack or something

There is nothing that suggests a due northerly track... not with the UL moving west

[LarryWx]

18z GFDL Animation

Goes fairly strong in intensity.

So does it predict a TS before landfalling in FL?

It has highest winds of 54 knots mainly near and offshore NE FL with lowest pressure of 1000 mb.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 190053
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC WED SEP 19 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070919 0000 070919 1200 070920 0000 070920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.4N 79.3W 25.8N 80.7W 26.3N 81.9W 27.1N 83.3W
BAMD 25.4N 79.3W 26.2N 80.1W 27.3N 81.4W 28.3N 83.0W
BAMM 25.4N 79.3W 25.8N 80.5W 26.5N 81.7W 27.2N 83.2W
LBAR 25.4N 79.3W 25.8N 80.0W 27.0N 80.6W 28.3N 81.1W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 27KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070921 0000 070922 0000 070923 0000 070924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.9N 84.6W 29.7N 88.2W 31.3N 92.3W 33.4N 96.3W
BAMD 29.1N 84.9W 30.1N 88.7W 31.1N 93.3W 33.8N 98.0W
BAMM 28.0N 84.7W 29.4N 88.2W 30.7N 92.3W 32.8N 96.5W
LBAR 30.0N 81.7W 32.5N 81.6W 34.0N 80.1W 33.1N 78.5W
SHIP 63KTS 76KTS 80KTS 78KTS
DSHP 47KTS 61KTS 35KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.4N LONCUR = 79.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.1N LONM24 = 78.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




As Derek said,discount the GFDL because of that initial north track.

[skysummit]

What's going on with the HWRF?

[CrazyC83]

That NOGAPS track is quite ominous...

[Ed Mahmoud]

That NOGAPS track is quite ominous...

But the NOGAPS doesn't seem to have the track record of the GFS or Euro.


Anybody know when the Navy NOGAPS model was last improved/modified? I know they make adjustments to the NCEP models almost every year.

[chrisnnavarre]

GFDL might be north initially but I wouldn't discount the final plots due to climatology. New Orleans or central LA looks like this could be the landfall for this disturbance. I'd be willing to bet that once this gets in the gulf, the cone goes up for either central LA, SE LA or Miss./Ala border. Just a hunch here, but it is that time of year. SW LA is also a possiblity, but with gulf waters as hot as they are, I bet this stalls and intensifies. Hope not because I'm supposed to go over to NOLA to meet with friends for the weekend.

[ROCK]

What's going on with the HWRF?

good question...someone needs to do some tweaking before it replaces the GFDL......

[ROCK]

GFDL might be north initially but I wouldn't discount the final plots due to climatology. New Orleans or central LA looks like this could be the landfall for this disturbance. I'd be willing to bet that once this gets in the gulf, the cone goes up for either central LA, SE LA or Miss./Ala border. Just a hunch here, but it is that time of year. SW LA is also a possiblity, but with gulf waters as hot as they are, I bet this stalls and intensifies. Hope not because I'm supposed to go over to NOLA to meet with friends for the weekend.

Climatology? if we followed the Clipper this would be out sea right now...

[chrisnnavarre]

GFDL might be north initially but I wouldn't discount the final plots due to climatology. New Orleans or central LA looks like this could be the landfall for this disturbance. I'd be willing to bet that once this gets in the gulf, the cone goes up for either central LA, SE LA or Miss./Ala border. Just a hunch here, but it is that time of year. SW LA is also a possiblity, but with gulf waters as hot as they are, I bet this stalls and intensifies. Hope not because I'm supposed to go over to NOLA to meet with friends for the weekend.

Climatology? if we followed the Clipper this would be out sea right now...

That's true but I'm talking about after it gets in the GOM. Getting a little late for Texas landfalls if you check the track histories. Not that it couldn't happen but traveling west the entire GOM would really surprise me. Of course back to back CAT 5's was a little shocking this year as well.