Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Ptarmigan]

Just looking at the pattern of squalls, it reminds me very much of a "storm" that moved into Houston about 6 years ago. Anyone remember Alison? Alison formed a weak LLC that was sheared and exposed to the west of a massive area of squalls that extended from the upper TX coast all the way to the Yucatan. It didn't produce any wind when it came ashore (just TS force winds offshore) but it dropped 6-12" of rain on its first pass through Houston. This time, though, the remnant low should only make one pass through the area. Watch the MPEG below and pause it near the point when Alison's center is on the TX coast. Look at the squalls extending across the Gulf toward the Yucatan.

You can see the upper high on the east side, as indicated by the good outflow pattern in the east semicircle. But there's clearly a deep upper trof to the west. Exactly the pattern that's developing in the Gulf over the next 2 days.

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b1/hurr/mpg/2001NAALL.mpg

I remember Allison well. Different situation in this case though. Allison was not even forecasted to develop. It was just a ULL to hit Louisiana.

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFDL has now run for this system...it takes it NW and then turns it more WNW into south Texas.



As for intensity: The SHIPS model..which assumes a slower motion..brings the system up to 66 knots by 96 hours. However, if it moves faster (like Wxman57 is predicting), then it would not have enough time to gain that much strength. The SHIPS model does still bring this up to 49 knots within 48 hours though, so a strong TS isn't out of the question. Assuming the SHIPS is a bit too high though, I would say 40-45 knots as landfall is a good bet if this does indeed develop. We will need to watch the speed and direction of this system very closely however. If it decides to move slower or take a longer route over water, then it may have the potential to get a bit stronger.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont like the LBAR.....But we do need some rain...

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:


A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED E OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 15N72W MASKING THE LOW LEVEL WAVE CURVATURE. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
75W-77W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W. SEE ABOVE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W MOVING NW.
SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E
OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 78W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 68W-72W. SURFACE
TRADES ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 19N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N72W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Smurfwicked]

From what I've seen models really have a drastic ( and I believe a more precise ) change once the storm develops... As far as the water temps goes, its not much of a difference in when Humberto went thru it.. And from what I've seen ( and I'm no expert ) you can't rule out anything thats in the gulf.

[cycloneye]

I'm not that impressed with this. Looks like another rain event for TX/LA.

The low pressure South of Cape Verde islands may develop well before 94L.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not that impressed with this. Looks like another rain event for TX/LA.

The low pressure South of Cape Verde islands may develop well before 94L.

Maybe, but I'd bet a thousand quatloos no storm becoming a TC East of 50ºW this late in the year won't recurve out to sea well before the Lesser Antilles.

[Ptarmigan]

The low pressure South of Cape Verde islands may develop well before 94L.

That low south of CV should get an invest. One computer model has it developing into something tropical and heading towards Florida and GOM.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, it seems like everything that has a threat of developing either won't be a threat to land or will just end up as a tropical storm hitting land....I guess that's normal as we go into October, as conditions get a bit more unsettled with much more shear and unfavorable conditions....

[ConvergenceZone]

The low pressure South of Cape Verde islands may develop well before 94L.

That low south of CV should get an invest. One computer model has it developing into something tropical and heading towards Florida and GOM.

That's the only one I'm not quite sure about. Perhaps it will be the one that actually develops into something other than a tropical storm, but we've got a long time to watch this one to see what may happen....

[Starburst]

I see most discuss this area going into upper texas/LA but why are the models not showing this they all point to lower Texas near Mexico event.

[Steve]

>>Maybe, but I'd bet a thousand quatloos no storm becoming a TC East of 50ºW this late in the year won't recurve out to sea well before the Lesser Antilles.

I'd take a double negative bet anyday. I'll PM you my paypal address.

Of this year's close-in systems, 94l might have the most moisture to work with so far. The environment looks juiced. I am sure some of #10's moisture and some of Ingrid are up in there. If it had time, I'd be a lot more worried about potential. I know some of the models want to drop it back toward the lower TX Coast or even into the BoC (eh.... maybe?) but that seems less likely than a low(?) quickly up to the TX Coast. {FWIW, the ECMWF and some of the GFS runs (particularly the ensembles) were pretty good with TD #10's ultimate track (a couple of degrees too far south).}

Looks like the FL Peninsula's getting some good rain out of this so far. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

moisture with this streaming to its north so areas
north of the track get the heaviest rain/weather.

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>Maybe, but I'd bet a thousand quatloos no storm becoming a TC East of 50ºW this late in the year won't recurve out to sea well before the Lesser Antilles.

I'd take a double negative bet anyday. I'll PM you my paypal address.

Of this year's close-in systems, 94l might have the most moisture to work with so far. The environment looks juiced. I am sure some of #10's moisture and some of Ingrid are up in there. If it had time, I'd be a lot more worried about potential. I know some of the models want to drop it back toward the lower TX Coast or even into the BoC (eh.... maybe?) but that seems less likely than a low(?) quickly up to the TX Coast. {FWIW, the ECMWF and some of the GFS runs (particularly the ensembles) were pretty good with TD #10's ultimate track (a couple of degrees too far south).}

Looks like the FL Peninsula's getting some good rain out of this so far. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

Um, I think you know what I meant...

[Brent]

10:30pm TWO:

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE LOW EMERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[RL3AO]

[hurricanetrack]

Wow, it seems like everything that has a threat of developing either won't be a threat to land or will just end up as a tropical storm hitting land....I guess that's normal as we go into October, as conditions get a bit more unsettled with much more shear and unfavorable conditions....

We can't get much more shear and unfavorable conditions than what we just went through here at the peak of the hurricane season. That was (and still is) quite bad for a hurricane season promoted to be such an active one. Perhaps the pattern is about to change and we will see a 15-25 day period of favorable conditions across a broader area.

[HollynLA]

I see most discuss this area going into upper texas/LA but why are the models not showing this they all point to lower Texas near Mexico event.

Yeah, I've wondered the same thing. Leave Louisiana out of this unless something changes. I don't think this system will amount to much anyway since it won't have enough time.

[jaxfladude]

Is not great the season is now on the decline....???

[HollynLA]

Is not great the season is now on the decline....???

Well, it should be on the decline, but it doesn't seem to be working out that way